نظرة عامة تحليلية على أزواج العملات الرئيسية في 2025.09.03

The EUR/USD currency pair

المؤشرات الفنية لأزواج العملات:

• الافتتاح السابق: 1.1707
• الإغلاق السابق: 1.1638
• تغيُّر بنسبة% خلال اليوم الماضي: -0.59 %

The euro fell to $1.16 amid rising yields on European government bonds as investors’ attention shifted to growing concerns about the budget. Yields on 30-year French and German bonds reached levels not seen since 2011, during the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. Germany’s medium-term financial plan calls for net new borrowing of around €500 billion through 2029 to finance increased spending on infrastructure and defense. In France, concerns about the country’s debt burden are a key factor underlying next week’s vote of confidence in the prime minister. Meanwhile, Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.1% in August, slightly exceeding both market expectations and the ECB’s 2% target, reinforcing expectations that the Central Bank will keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week.

توصيات التداول

• مستويات الدعم: 1.1629, 1.1584, 1.1528
• مستويات المقاومة: 1.1656, 1.1680, 1.1717, 1.1737

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish, but close to a reversal. The price is trading at the support level of 1.1629, which is also the priority reversal level. It is very important for buyers not to let the price close below this level; otherwise, a sell-off to 1.1585 should be expected. If buyers show new initiative from 1.1629, intraday purchases up to 1.1656 and above can be considered.

السيناريو البديل:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.1629 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

المؤشرات الفنية لأزواج العملات:

• الافتتاح السابق: 1.3539
• الإغلاق السابق: 1.3392
• تغيُّر بنسبة% خلال اليوم الماضي: -1.10 %

The British pound fell below $1.34, its lowest level since early August, amid a sharp rise in long-term UK government bond yields due to concerns about the country’s financial prospects. The yield on 30-year government bonds rose to its highest level since 1998, increasing pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves ahead of the autumn budget and further reducing already limited fiscal space. Reeves is expected to announce tax increases to curb the deficit. Political attention has also turned to Westminster, where Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a cabinet reshuffle on Monday. Today, investors are focused on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting for signals on interest rate dynamics and possible adjustments to the Central Bank’s quantitative tightening program.

توصيات التداول

• مستويات الدعم: 1.3352, 1.3312, 1.3281
• مستويات المقاومة: 1.3403, 1.3445, 1.3492, 1.3533

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD has shifted to a downward trend. The price has settled below the priority change level and is trading below the EMA lines. A flat is now forming with boundaries of 1.3352–1.3403. A breakdown of the lower boundary of the flat will trigger a new sell-off to 1.3113. For buy deals, 1.3352 can be considered, but only if buyers take the initiative.

السيناريو البديل:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.3533 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

المؤشرات الفنية لأزواج العملات:

• الافتتاح السابق: 147.14
• الإغلاق السابق: 148.36
• تغيُّر بنسبة% خلال اليوم الماضي: +0.82 %

On Wednesday, the Japanese yen weakened to 149 per dollar, reaching a monthly low, as political uncertainty put pressure on the currency. Secretary-General of the ruling party Hiroshi Moriyama, a close ally of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, said he would resign, fueling speculation about Ishiba’s future as calls for his resignation grow louder after his election defeat. One of the key contenders for his position, Sanae Takaichi, is considered a supporter of low interest rates. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino reiterated on Tuesday that the Central Bank should continue to raise rates gradually, but stressed that global risks remain high, giving no reason for aggressive policy tightening.

توصيات التداول

• مستويات الدعم: 148.07, 147.34, 147.09
• مستويات المقاومة: 148.81, 149.55, 150.34

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY has changed to upward. The price is consolidating above the change in priority level. A breakout of the 148.81 resistance level will open the way for the price to 149.54. Intraday, sales from 148.81 to 148.07 can be considered, but with a short stop.

السيناريو البديل:

if the price breaks through the support level of 147.09 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

المؤشرات الفنية لأزواج العملات:

• الافتتاح السابق: 3477
• الإغلاق السابق: 3537
• تغيُّر بنسبة% خلال اليوم الماضي: +1.72 %

On Wednesday, the price of gold remained above $3530 per ounce, fluctuating at record highs, driven by expectations of a softening of US monetary policy and a flight to safe assets amid expanding political and economic risks. Investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates this month after its chairman, Jerome Powell, cautiously hinted at the possibility of such a move. Attention now turns to a key US labor market report due on Friday for further clues on the likelihood of policy easing in September. Diversification away from the US dollar, along with broader budget concerns that have weighed on stock and bond markets, has also boosted demand for safe-haven assets such as gold.

توصيات التداول

• مستويات الدعم: 3500, 3469, 3438, 3402, 3383, 3374
• مستويات المقاومة: 3600

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold has consolidated above the psychological level of 3500, and now the next target is 3600. For buy deals, it is ideal to wait for a corrective movement to the support level of 3500, but the price may continue to rally from the EMA lines. It is worth refraining from selling, even though the MACD indicator signals divergence, as there is no initiative on the part of sellers.

السيناريو البديل:

if the price breaks the support level of 3374 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.