نظرة عامة تحليلية على أزواج العملات الرئيسية في 2025.12.23

The EUR/USD currency pair

المؤشرات الفنية لأزواج العملات:

• الافتتاح السابق: 1.1716
• الإغلاق السابق: 1.1762
• تغيُّر بنسبة% خلال اليوم الماضي: +0.39%

The euro is trading slightly above $1.17, close to its highest level since late September, amid policy divergence between the ECB and the Fed. Last week, the ECB left rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time and stated they would remain at current levels for some time, noting that the Eurozone has handled US tariffs better than expected. Positive economic data allowed the ECB to raise its 2025 GDP growth expectations from 1.2% to 1.4%, with inflation expected near the 2% target through 2028. Meanwhile, weak US inflation data reinforces expectations for Fed rate cuts next year, supporting the euro.

توصيات التداول

• مستويات الدعم: 1.1758, 1.1707, 1.1680, 1.1656, 1.1590, 1.1555, 1.1503
• مستويات المقاومة: 1.1780, 1.1833

The euro has consolidated above 1.1758 and is currently aiming to break 1.1780. The intraday bias remains with the buyers, and it is crucial that the price does not drop below 1.1758 again. For buys, wait for an impulsive breakout of 1.1780. For sells, we need to see price consolidation below 1.1758 on momentum.

السيناريو البديل:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 1.1758
• Res: 1.1780
• Note: Considering buy deals above 1.1780. A price hold below 1.1758 will trigger a sell-off.

The GBP/USD currency pair

المؤشرات الفنية لأزواج العملات:

• الافتتاح السابق: 1.3378
• الإغلاق السابق: 1.3461
• تغيُّر بنسبة% خلال اليوم الماضي: +0.62 %

The pound rose to approximately $1.345, an 11-week high, amid a weakening dollar and expectations of at least two Fed rate cuts next year, which reduces the dollar’s yield advantage. In December, the Bank of England cut its rate by 25 bps to 3.75% (5-4 vote); inflation fell to 3.2% in November but remains above the 2% target. Governor Andrew Bailey expects gradual rate cuts, but not as quickly as markets hope. Recent data showed UK GDP grew by 0.1% in Q3, while the BoE expects zero growth in Q4. Money markets expect at least one cut in the first half of the year. The pound has gained over 1% this month and about 7% year-to-date.

توصيات التداول

• مستويات الدعم: 1.3445, 1.3347, 1.3354, 1.3292, 1.3268, 1.3156, 1.3111
• مستويات المقاومة: 1.3526, 1.3586

The British pound has reached a near 3-month high. The price has consolidated above 1.3445 and is now aiming for a test of 1.3526. However, the deviation between the price and the EMA lines is large, making it impractical to open buy trades at current prices. Furthermore, an SMT divergence has formed between EUR/USD and GBP/USD, indicating price weakness and a possible correction soon. For buys, it is better to wait for a correction to 1.3445. A drop below this level will trigger a deeper correction to 1.3347.

السيناريو البديل:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 1.3445
• Res: 1.3526
• Note: Waiting for a correction to 1.3445, where we will evaluate price reaction for buys. A move below 1.3445 is undesirable for buyers.

The USD/JPY currency pair

المؤشرات الفنية لأزواج العملات:

• الافتتاح السابق: 157.69
• الإغلاق السابق: 157.05
• تغيُّر بنسبة% خلال اليوم الماضي: -0.41 %

The Japanese yen strengthened to around 155 per dollar amid signals of possible government intervention to curb sharp exchange rate fluctuations. The Finance Minister and the top currency diplomat confirmed their readiness to take measures against excessive volatility. The yen was also supported by the weakening dollar on expectations of two Fed rate cuts next year. The government plans to approve the 2026 budget with a new national debt of just over 28.6 trillion yen.

توصيات التداول

• مستويات الدعم: 156.08, 155.40, 154.92, 154.41, 154.17
• مستويات المقاومة: 156.93, 157.78, 159.47

The Japanese yen reached the 157.78 resistance level yesterday, where profit-taking on previously opened positions began. Furthermore, the price strengthened sharply on Tuesday during the Asian session following rumors of possible government intervention. Currently, the price is trading at the 156.08 support level, and it is important to evaluate the price action here. An impulsive breakout below will open the path to 155.40. If buyers show initiative from 156.08, intraday buy trades with short targets can be considered.

السيناريو البديل:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 156.08
• Res: 156.93
• Note: Considering sell deals on a breakout below 156.08. Buy trades are appropriate from 156.08, provided there is initiative from the bulls.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

المؤشرات الفنية لأزواج العملات:

• الافتتاح السابق: 4338
• الإغلاق السابق: 4443
• تغيُّر بنسبة% خلال اليوم الماضي: +2.42%

Gold hit a new record above $4470 per ounce on Tuesday amid rising demand for safe-haven assets due to US-Venezuela tensions and expectations of Fed rate cuts. The US intensified its blockade of Venezuela, seizing a second tanker. Regarding monetary policy, markets also anticipate two rate cuts from the US Fed next year, serving as a catalyst for the “yellow metal.” Gold has risen 70% year-to-date, driven by central bank purchases and ETF inflows.

توصيات التداول

• مستويات الدعم: 4400, 4375, 4350, 4209
• مستويات المقاومة: 4450, 4500

Gold continues its rally. However, the price has deviated significantly from the EMA lines (strong deviation), and it has approached the 4500 option level. Given the holiday week, profit-taking may begin, and the price might enter a flat range. For buys, it is better to wait for a correction to 4450. There are no optimal entry points for sell deals as there is no counter-initiative.

السيناريو البديل:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 4450
• Res: 4500
• Note: Waiting for a price correction to 4450 due to strong price deviation from the EMA lines. No optimal entry point for sells.