نظرة عامة تحليلية على أزواج العملات الرئيسية في 2026.04.06

The EUR/USD currency pair

المؤشرات الفنية لأزواج العملات:

• الافتتاح السابق: 1.1532
• الإغلاق السابق: 1.1516
• تغيُّر بنسبة% خلال اليوم الماضي: -0.14%

The euro continues to show high sensitivity to the geopolitical backdrop. The currency’s movement reflects a delicate balance between fears of an economic shock and cautious optimism regarding the end of “Operation Epic Fury.” Notably, the yield premium of US two‑year bonds over their German counterparts has fallen to a five‑year low of 118 bps, indicating a narrowing rate differential. Against this backdrop, the swaps market has reduced the probability of an ECB rate hike at the end of April to 50%, down from 85% recently, highlighting growing uncertainty within the regulator amid wartime conditions. Upcoming macroeconomic data from the Eurozone, including final PMI readings and retail‑sales reports, are unlikely to become independent market drivers, as risk sentiment is fully dictated by news from the Persian Gulf. Only real progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz could pull the euro out of its current range, turning the ongoing consolidation into a proper base for recovery.

توصيات التداول

• مستويات الدعم: 1.1511, 1.1490, 1.1450
• مستويات المقاومة: 1.1560, 1.1617, 1.1639, 1.1666, 1.1707

The euro continues to move sideways within the 1.1511-1.1560 range: the price has reached the lower boundary, where buyers have shown initiative. Under such market conditions, intraday long positions may be considered, but only if the price breaks through the intermediate level located near the EMA lines. Short positions may be revisited once the price consolidates below 1.1511.

السيناريو البديل:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1511
• Res: 1.1560
• Note: Long positions may be considered from 1.1511, but with confirmation. Shorts become relevant only after a firm break below 1.1511.

 

The GBP/USD currency pair

المؤشرات الفنية لأزواج العملات:

• الافتتاح السابق: 1.3217
• الإغلاق السابق: 1.3200
• تغيُّر بنسبة% خلال اليوم الماضي: -0.13%

The dynamics of the British pound in early April 2026 remain hostage to the global dominance of the US dollar, confirmed by an extremely strong inverse correlation of 0.85. The pound appears “heavy” and trades closely in sync with the euro (correlation 0.88 – the highest since mid‑2025), effectively losing its own independent trajectory. After a brief recovery in hopes of conflict resolution, the pound again came under pressure below the 1.3200 mark. Domestic data, including March PMI readings for services and construction, is viewed as secondary ahead of the Bank of England meeting on April 30. Traders are focused on inflation risks driven by the war: the swaps market assigns a slightly above 50% probability of a rate hike this month, with an 80% chance of another hike before year‑end.

توصيات التداول

• مستويات الدعم: 1.3152, 1.3125
• مستويات المقاومة: 1.3262, 1.3322, 1.3378, 1.3457, 1.3508, 1.3556

The British pound largely mirrors the euro. The currency continues to trade within the 1.3179-1.3254 range near the EMA lines. On Monday’s market open, buyers showed initiative at the lower boundary of the range, testing liquidity below the level. This increases the likelihood of a move toward a new liquidity pocket just above 1.3252. Short positions are not considered today.

السيناريو البديل:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3179
• Res: 1.3252
• Note: Long positions are appropriate from 1.3179, but with confirmation. For short positions, the optimal level is 1.3252.

The USD/JPY currency pair

المؤشرات الفنية لأزواج العملات:

• الافتتاح السابق: 159.63
• الإغلاق السابق: 159.58
• تغيُّر بنسبة% خلال اليوم الماضي: -0.03%

On Friday, the Bank of Japan reaffirmed its hawkish stance: Executive Director Koji Nakamura told parliament that the regulator will continue raising interest rates if current economic expectations are confirmed. Although the Middle East conflict and rising fuel prices worsen Japan’s terms of trade, Nakamura emphasized that these factors now translate into core inflation more strongly than before. Companies have become more active in passing costs onto consumers and raising wages, anchoring long‑term inflation expectations, and forcing the central bank to act decisively to cool prices. Against this backdrop, and with the yen trading near 160 per dollar, markets assign a 70% probability of a rate hike at the April 28 meeting.

توصيات التداول

• مستويات الدعم: 159.22, 158.31, 157.87, 157.32
• مستويات المقاومة: 159.97, 161.29

The Japanese yen has been moving sideways since Thursday in a narrow range near the EMA lines, which act as dynamic support. However, the main liquidity pool above 159.97 remains untested, increasing the likelihood of upward movement. Today, the focus is on the price reaction to the EMA lines: a break below them may trigger a correction toward 159.22, where long positions may also be considered with confirmation. If buyers show initiative from the EMA lines, intraday long positions toward 159.97 are appropriate.

السيناريو البديل:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 159.22
• Res: 159.97
• Note: Long positions are appropriate from the EMA lines or from the 159.22 support level, but with confirmation. There are no optimal entry points for short positions at the moment.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

المؤشرات الفنية لأزواج العملات:

• الافتتاح السابق: 4675
• الإغلاق السابق: 4675
• تغيُّر بنسبة% خلال اليوم الماضي: 0%

On Monday, gold consolidated near the 4600‑dollar level. A new ultimatum from Donald Trump – who promised Iran “hell” and strikes on civilian infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened by Tuesday evening – triggered another wave of uncertainty. Investors anxiously await the president’s press conference at 13:00, while Tehran has already rejected Washington’s demands and continued attacks on regional energy facilities, further intensifying inflationary pressures and expectations of additional rate hikes. Since the conflict began on February 28, gold has lost about 12% of its value, showing atypical behavior for a crisis period. Gold is failing to act as a classic safe‑haven asset because investors are forced to sell it to cover losses (margin calls) in other markets affected by volatility. With high oil prices fueling inflation and the US dollar strengthening as the primary safe haven, gold remains under dual pressure from liquidations and expectations of tighter central‑bank policy.

توصيات التداول

• مستويات الدعم: 4553, 4528, 4304, 4169
• مستويات المقاومة: 4700, 4801

Gold is becoming increasingly difficult to predict due to its strong dependence on Middle East headlines and Trump’s sharp statements. In such conditions, gold stops respecting support/resistance levels and market structure, leading to volatile and chaotic price movements. At the moment, the price is trading within the 4553-4700 range and is near the EMA lines, complicating the search for good entry points. Long positions should be considered only after a firm break above 4700. There are no optimal entry points for short positions right now.

السيناريو البديل:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4553
• Res: 4700
• Note: Long positions should be considered only after a break above 4700. There are no optimal short setups at the moment.