BRICS countries condemned the indiscriminate increase in tariffs. OPEC+ countries agreed to a sharp increase in production

The US stock indices did not trade on Friday due to the US Independence Day holiday.

The dispute between Republican President Donald Trump and his campaign’s chief financier, Elon Musk, took a new turn on Saturday when the billionaire space and car industry magnate announced the creation of a new political party, saying that Trump’s “big and beautiful” tax bill would bankrupt America. Earlier last week, Trump threatened to strip Musk’s companies of the billions of dollars in federal subsidies they receive. Despite Musk’s deep pockets, breaking the Republican-Democratic duopoly will not be easy, given that it has dominated American political life for more than 160 years, and Trump’s approval rating in polls during his second term has generally remained above 40%.

BRICS leaders are expected to sign a joint statement condemning the “rise of unjustified unilateral protectionist measures” and “disorderly increases” in tariffs. The final wording is unlikely to mention the US directly. But the group is sending an unambiguous signal to the Trump administration ahead of July 9, when his tariffs are set to take effect. US President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that any country that joins the BRICS bloc’s “anti-American policy” will face additional 10% tariffs.

The Mexican peso strengthened to 18.65 per US dollar, its strongest level since mid-August 2024. In the external market, the unexpectedly large US budget package in June and the approaching deadline for Trump’s tariffs weakened the dollar, while Mexico’s trade surplus in May was US$1.03 billion, and record remittances of US$5.5 billion ensured an inflow of hard currency into the country. In the domestic market, Banxico’s decision on June 26 to cut its key rate by 50 basis points to 8%, while confirming that further cuts would occur in anticipation of sustained disinflation, maintained an attractive real interest rate that supported the yield differential between the peso and the dollar.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.61% (-1.33% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.75% (-0.24% for the week), the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) Index lost 1.48% (-0.40% for the week), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.01% (+0.27% for the week). On Friday, European stocks closed lower amid ongoing tensions in trade relations with the United States. The EU Commission said it was close to developing a framework trade agreement with the US to avoid the reintroduction of aggressive tariffs by the July 9 deadline. In turn, ECB officials noted that they may not reach their 2% inflation target if the euro remains at $1.20 for an extended period.

OPEC+ countries agreed to a larger-than-expected increase in oil production in August. The eight countries that comprise the OPEC+ oil-producing alliance agreed to increase oil production in August by 548,000 barrels per day, exceeding expectations. The group includes the largest oil producers — Russia and Saudi Arabia — as well as Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates. These countries are winding down their voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day. The increase in production by 548,000 barrels per day, coupled with the winding down of voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day, means a significant increase in supply. If demand does not grow proportionally, this will lead to an oversupply in the market, which could potentially lower oil prices. On the other hand, seasonal growth in demand in the summer may partially offset the effect of increased supply.

On Friday, silver prices (XAG/USD) remained above $36.80 per ounce, approaching 13-year highs, as renewed tensions in global trade boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Investors remained on edge after President Donald Trump announced plans to begin sending letters describing new trade tariffs or potential extensions as early as Friday, adding to uncertainty in global markets. Further market anxiety was caused by the US House of Representatives passing Trump’s tax and spending bill, which is now headed to the White House for signing. The bill is expected to increase the federal budget deficit by more than $3 trillion, raising long-term fiscal concerns.

Asian markets traded without any clear trend last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.82%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 1.60%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 2.19%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 1.04% over the past week.

Vietnam’s annual GDP growth rate in the second quarter of 2025 was 7.96% year-over-year (y/y), accelerating from 6.93% in the first quarter and marking the highest rate since the third quarter of 2022. The latest result reflects significant progress toward Hanoi’s target of at least 8% economic growth. Washington and Hanoi have signed a trade agreement under which Vietnamese goods will be subject to a 20% tariff, and transshipment of goods from third countries through Vietnam will be subject to a 40% tax. In return, Vietnam can import American goods without tariffs. Vietnam’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.57% in June 2025, from 3.24% in the previous month, marking the highest level since January. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items, rose to 3.46%, the highest since September 2023.