European stock markets continue a prolonged decline. Oil prices continue to rise slowly

On Monday, the US stock market showed mixed dynamics. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.13%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.12%. The Tech Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher on Friday by 0.20%. Investors are balancing between expectations for tech‑giant earnings and worrying signals from the energy market, where oil prices added another 2% despite diplomatic maneuvering around the Strait of Hormuz. The high‑tech sector became the main engine of growth, fueled by the AI and microchip frenzy: Nvidia jumped 4%, reinforcing its status as the favorite in the AI race ahead of key earnings this week. Investors are preparing for a “super‑week” that will set the trend for the entire next month. The main events will be central‑bank meetings led by the US Federal Reserve, as well as financial results from Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta. While the tech sector and financial companies show resilience, allowing indices to remain near record highs, inflation risks linked to the ninth week of the oil shock remain the main barrier to broad market growth.

The Mexican peso (MXN) retreated from its six‑month highs, stabilizing at 17.4 per US dollar. The main driver of the currency’s weakness was fresh inflation data that came in below expectations, giving the Bank of Mexico room for further monetary easing. Annual inflation in Mexico in the first half of April slowed to 4.53%. Even more notable was the decline in core inflation to a five‑month low of 4.27%. These figures confirm that the regulator’s recent unexpected decision to cut rates to 6.75% (a four‑year low) was justified and aimed at supporting domestic growth.

European stock markets continue a prolonged decline: Monday marked the sixth consecutive session of losses. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.19%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.19%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.01%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session down 0.56%. Although news of a new diplomatic proposal from Iran via Pakistani intermediaries brought a glimmer of hope, the actual situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains deadlocked. Oil and gas shipments remain paralyzed, keeping fuel prices at levels that threaten Eurozone price stability. Under these conditions, traders are almost certain that the ECB will keep rates unchanged this week, and a significant part of the market is pricing in further rate hikes this quarter to contain inflationary risks.

On Monday, the oil market was hit by a new wave of volatility: WTI prices jumped more than 2%, reaching 96.5 dollars per barrel. The dramatic rise in prices is driven by the effective paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz – a key global energy artery. Despite the formal ceasefire in place since early April, mutual naval blockades have nearly halted tanker traffic in the region. The situation is worsened by the diplomatic deadlock between Washington and Tehran. The IEA describes the current events as the most unprecedented supply shock in the history of observations. The ninth week of the conflict has led not only to raw‑material shortages in key markets but also to rising risks of a global recession.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.38%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.43%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed down 0.20%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) declined by 0.23%. The labor‑market situation in New Zealand in March 2026 showed temporary resilience: employment rose by 0.3%, reaching a 14‑month high of 2.35 million people. This increase was the result of the delayed effect of low interest rates that previously supported businesses, but the overall picture remains troubling. Despite recovering 14,600 jobs since last summer, current employment levels are still 39,000 below those of two years ago. But the positive March dynamics are already facing severe macroeconomic challenges. The sharp rise in fuel prices caused by the ninth week of the Strait of Hormuz conflict has begun to undermine economic activity at the end of Q1. Business confidence in the country has collapsed to mid‑2024 lows, as rising costs erode company profits and force them to begin cutting staff.