মূল মুদ্রার জোড়াগুলির বিশ্লেষণাত্মক পর্যালোচনা 2025.09.11

The EUR/USD currency pair

মুদ্রা জোড়ার প্রযুক্তিগত সূচক:

• পূর্ববর্তী খোলা: 1.1703
• পূর্ববর্তী বন্ধ: 1.1695
• সর্বশেষ দিন ধরে % chg.: -0.07 %

Today, investors are awaiting the ECB meeting and upcoming US inflation data for guidance on monetary policy. ECB officials are expected to leave interest rates unchanged for the second meeting in a row as trade uncertainty persists and Eurozone inflation remains on target for the third consecutive month. In the US, softer labour market data last week reinforced expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, with markets increasingly pricing in the possibility of a larger-than-usual rate move depending on inflation results. On the political front, French President Macron has appointed Sébastien Lecornu as the country’s new prime minister.

ট্রেডিং সুপারিশসমূহ

• সহায়তার মাত্রা: 1.1704, 1.1680, 1.1642, 1.1629, 1.1584, 1.1528
• প্রতিরোধের মাত্রা: 1.1756, 1.1786

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. Yesterday, the price formed a locked balance below 1.1704, after which the euro rose to 1.1730, where it encountered selling pressure. Currently, the price is trading again at the support level of 1.1704, and it is clear that there is price rejection below this level, which indicates attempts by buyers to either prevent the price from falling below or accumulate more positions in the balance. An impulse movement from the price rejection zone will trigger a sharp rise in the euro. If the price manages to consolidate below the buyer’s zone, a sell-off is highly likely.

বিকল্প দৃশ্যকল্প:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.1629 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

মুদ্রা জোড়ার প্রযুক্তিগত সূচক:

• পূর্ববর্তী খোলা: 1.3523
• পূর্ববর্তী বন্ধ: 1.3528
• সর্বশেষ দিন ধরে % chg.: +0.04 %

The political situation in the UK and bond markets have stabilized. The yield on 30-year gilts remains below 5.50%, which limits downward pressure. The reshuffle in Prime Minister Starmer’s cabinet has been received positively, and markets welcome the reduction in political risk ahead of the autumn statement on November 26. Analysts expect the Bank of England to maintain a hawkish stance until 2025, hinting that rate cuts may be delayed until 2026, contrasting with the Fed’s accelerating dovish stance. Market positioning and investor sentiment indicate that positioning remains focused on further strengthening of the pound. Scotiabank highlights the likelihood that the pound will rise to its July multi-year high of 1.3789, while Bank of America warns of structural vulnerability related to the volatility of UK fixed income. BNP Paribas projects three consecutive 25 bps Fed rate cuts at upcoming meetings, which will increase policy divergence and support GBP/USD.

ট্রেডিং সুপারিশসমূহ

• সহায়তার মাত্রা: 1.3505, 1.3545, 1.3485, 1.3449, 1.3398, 1.3312, 1.3281
• প্রতিরোধের মাত্রা: 1.3556, 1.3585

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD is bullish. After testing liquidity above 1.3585, the British currency corrected to the EMA lines and is now forming a flat accumulation below the intermediate level of 1.3556. Consolidation of the price above the EMA lines will open up opportunities for buy deals with a target of 1.3556 and above to 1.3585. Pay attention to the price rejection zone. If the price closes impulsively below this zone, it could trigger a sharp sell-off.

বিকল্প দৃশ্যকল্প:

if the price breaks through the support level of 1.3417 and settles below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

মুদ্রা জোড়ার প্রযুক্তিগত সূচক:

• পূর্ববর্তী খোলা: 147.29
• পূর্ববর্তী বন্ধ: 147.44
• সর্বশেষ দিন ধরে % chg.: +0.10 %

On Thursday, the Japanese yen traded at around 147.5 per dollar, remaining stable for the third consecutive session as investors await US consumer inflation data that could reinforce expectations of a more significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve. US producer prices unexpectedly fell in August, easing concerns about persistent inflation and giving the Fed more room to cut borrowing costs. In Japan, business sentiment improved in the third quarter thanks to a sharp recovery in exports as companies rushed to ship goods to the US ahead of the introduction of new 15% tariffs. Separate data showed that producer prices rose 2.7% year-on-year in August, accelerating from a revised 2.5% in July.

ট্রেডিং সুপারিশসমূহ

• সহায়তার মাত্রা: 147.25, 146.82, 146.74
• প্রতিরোধের মাত্রা: 147.54, 147.87, 148.26

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is still bullish. The price has pulled back from the resistance level of 147.54, and buyers are now trying to prevent the price from falling below 147.25. A breakout and consolidation above 147.54 will open up opportunities for buy deals up to 147.87 and above. A move below 147.25 will trigger a sell-off to the locked balance of 146.82.

বিকল্প দৃশ্যকল্প:

if the price breaks through the support level of 147.09 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

মুদ্রা জোড়ার প্রযুক্তিগত সূচক:

• পূর্ববর্তী খোলা: 3629
• পূর্ববর্তী বন্ধ: 3642
• সর্বশেষ দিন ধরে % chg.: +0.35 %

Gold rose to $3650 per ounce on Wednesday after an unexpected decline in US producer prices reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve would resume cutting rates at its meeting next week. Both the headline and core producer price indices fell 0.1% in August, defying expectations of a 0.3% increase. The data followed weak labor market reports earlier this month, prompting markets to expect multiple Fed rate cuts this year. Investors are now awaiting today’s consumer price inflation report for further guidance. Geopolitical risks also contributed to demand for “safe” assets, as US President Donald Trump called on the EU to impose tariffs of up to 100% on China and India to put pressure on Russia over the war in Ukraine, unrest in the Middle East intensified, and Poland said it shot down Russian drones that violated its airspace during a major attack in western Ukraine.

ট্রেডিং সুপারিশসমূহ

• সহায়তার মাত্রা: 3600, 3575, 3560, 3500, 3469, 3438, 3402, 3383, 3374
• প্রতিরোধের মাত্রা: 3660, 3700

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. The locked balance above 3660 acted as a resistance area. The price corrected to 3620 and is likely to correct even lower, because now, in order for the bullish trend to continue, a locked balance below the support level needs to be formed. It is worth waiting before buying now. Intraday, sales up to 3600 can be considered.

বিকল্প দৃশ্যকল্প:

if the price breaks the support level of 3511 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.