মূল মুদ্রার জোড়াগুলির বিশ্লেষণাত্মক পর্যালোচনা 2025.10.01

The EUR/USD currency pair

মুদ্রা জোড়ার প্রযুক্তিগত সূচক:

• পূর্ববর্তী খোলা: 1.1722
• পূর্ববর্তী বন্ধ: 1.1732
• সর্বশেষ দিন ধরে % chg.: +0.08 %

The euro strengthened to $1.17 after national inflation reports showed rising prices in the four largest Eurozone countries, fueling expectations that policymakers will avoid cutting interest rates for now. Inflation in Germany jumped to 2.4%, exceeding the 2.3% projections, while prices also rose faster in France (1.2%) and Spain (2.9%), and remained unchanged in Italy (1.6%). Eurozone inflation hit a five-month high in September: consumer prices rose by 2.2% year-on-year, the largest increase this year, driven by higher energy and airfare costs. While some factors are typically overlooked by the ECB, the price growth above the 2% target could prompt officials to maintain the current interest rate. This is the last reading before the ECB’s October 30 decision, and rates are likely to remain unchanged until the December meeting.

ট্রেডিং সুপারিশসমূহ

• সহায়তার মাত্রা: 1.1709, 1.1661, 1.1634
• প্রতিরোধের মাত্রা: 1.1754, 1.1786, 1.1819

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is downward. The euro reached the 1.1754 resistance level, after which the price entered a sideways consolidation (flat). A breakout of this level will open the path for the price to 1.1786 and higher. However, given the MACD divergence and the bearish reaction to the level, intraday sales can be considered down to the lower boundary of the flat or to the 1.1709 support level.

বিকল্প দৃশ্যকল্প:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.1819 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

মুদ্রা জোড়ার প্রযুক্তিগত সূচক:

• পূর্ববর্তী খোলা: 1.3424
• পূর্ববর্তী বন্ধ: 1.3444
• সর্বশেষ দিন ধরে % chg.: +0.15 %

The UK’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter grew by 1.4% compared to the previous quarter, exceeding the consensus expectations and the previous reading of 1.2%. The data failed to provide support to the pound, which mainly benefited from the general weakness of the US dollar. The GBP/USD pair ended the month with a slight decline, but the Central Bank divergence suggests that the pair may resume its uptrend in the near term.

ট্রেডিং সুপারিশসমূহ

• সহায়তার মাত্রা: 1.3415, 1.3388, 1.3332, 1.3315
• প্রতিরোধের মাত্রা: 1.3463, 1.3491, 1.3532

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD is a downtrend. The pound is trading near the 1.3464 resistance level. The sellers’ reaction is weak, which increases the probability of testing the next level at 1.3491, where sales can be considered. There are currently no optimal entry points for buy deals.

বিকল্প দৃশ্যকল্প:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.3532 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

মুদ্রা জোড়ার প্রযুক্তিগত সূচক:

• পূর্ববর্তী খোলা: 148.58
• পূর্ববর্তী বন্ধ: 147.85
• সর্বশেষ দিন ধরে % chg.: -0.49 %

The yen stabilized at 148 per dollar on Wednesday after three consecutive sessions of gains, supported by data showing that sentiment among large manufacturers improved in the third quarter to its highest level since the fourth quarter of 2024, although pressure from US tariffs persisted. The Bank of Japan emphasized that this survey is a key indicator for determining the timing of rate hikes, and markets are now pricing in a 39% chance of a quarter-point increase at this month’s policy meeting. The summary of opinions for September also showed a split, with some policymakers advocating for further rate hikes if growth and inflation expectations materialize, while others prefer to keep rates low to protect the economy from tariff-related risks.

ট্রেডিং সুপারিশসমূহ

• সহায়তার মাত্রা: 147.50
• প্রতিরোধের মাত্রা: 148.47, 148.88, 150.00, 150.73

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is upward, but close to changing. The Japanese yen reached the 147.50 priority change level, and buyer reaction is currently absent. A breakdown and consolidation below this level could trigger a strong sell-off of the dollar against the yen, leading to a sharp decline. For buy deals, it is important to see initiative in the form of an impulsive candle.

বিকল্প দৃশ্যকল্প:

 if the price breaks through the support level of 147.50 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

মুদ্রা জোড়ার প্রযুক্তিগত সূচক:

• পূর্ববর্তী খোলা: 3828
• পূর্ববর্তী বন্ধ: 3859
• সর্বশেষ দিন ধরে % chg.: +0.81%

The price of gold rose to $3870 per ounce on Wednesday, hovering near the record level reached in the previous session, as fears of the impending US government shutdown stimulated demand for safe-haven assets. The US Senate failed to approve the government funding extension bill, leading to a government “shutdown.” At the same time, President Trump signaled further cuts to federal staffing. Traders will closely monitor the potential duration of the closure, as a prolonged shutdown could delay the release of key economic data, including Friday’s Nonfarm Employment report, which is crucial before the Fed’s policy meeting in late October. Traders are now pricing in an almost 100% probability of a rate cut at the next meeting and an approximately 76% probability of an additional cut in December.

ট্রেডিং সুপারিশসমূহ

• সহায়তার মাত্রা: 3800, 3760, 3718
• প্রতিরোধের মাত্রা: 3870, 3900

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold sharply corrected to 3800 yesterday amid profit-taking ahead of the holidays in China. However, the price returned to its morning values during the day due to the likely US government shutdown. This resulted in a high-volatility flat consolidation with boundaries of 3800-3870. An impulsive breakout of 3870 will open the way for the price to 3900, so buy deals should only be considered after a breakout of this level. Given the MACD divergence and the sellers’ reaction at 3870, the price may fall today to the 3830-3850 range.

বিকল্প দৃশ্যকল্প:

if the price breaks the support level of 3721 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.