মূল মুদ্রার জোড়াগুলির বিশ্লেষণাত্মক পর্যালোচনা 2026.05.04

The EUR/USD currency pair

মুদ্রা জোড়ার প্রযুক্তিগত সূচক:

• পূর্ববর্তী খোলা: 1.1732
• পূর্ববর্তী বন্ধ: 1.1716
• সর্বশেষ দিন ধরে % chg.: -0.14%

At the start of May, the euro strengthened above 1.17, recovering from a three‑week low. Support came from investor reassessment of the ECB’s latest policy decision, as well as renewed oil price growth amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. The ECB kept rates unchanged but signaled readiness to adjust policy at upcoming meetings, citing rising inflation risks and uncertainty around economic growth. President Christine Lagarde noted that the decision was unanimous, though a rate hike was also discussed. Some policymakers now see a tightening move as early as June, pointing to worsening inflation projections and the risk of persistent price pressures. As a result, markets are now pricing several rate hikes in 2026, with the first potentially coming this summer.

ট্রেডিং সুপারিশসমূহ

• সহায়তার মাত্রা: 1.1720, 1.1690, 1.1643, 1.1605
• প্রতিরোধের মাত্রা: 1.1776, 1.1791, 1.1823, 1.1849, 1.1894

The euro corrected toward the 1.1720 demand zone, where the price showed a bullish reaction after testing the liquidity pool. Since the pair has not yet reached key resistance levels above 1.1776, the price is likely to show upward movement in the first half of the week. Under these market conditions, intraday long positions from 1.1720 may be considered. There are no optimal short setups at the moment, and buyers will likely defend 1.1690.

বিকল্প দৃশ্যকল্প:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1720
• Res: 1.1763
• Note: Long positions are appropriate from 1.1720 with confirmation. No optimal short setups; buyers will try to prevent a decline below 1.1690..

The GBP/USD currency pair

মুদ্রা জোড়ার প্রযুক্তিগত সূচক:

• পূর্ববর্তী খোলা: 1.3604
• পূর্ববর্তী বন্ধ: 1.3572
• সর্বশেষ দিন ধরে % chg.: -0.23%

At the beginning of May, the pound strengthened to around 1.36, reaching its highest level since mid‑February. Support came from investor reaction to the Bank of England’s rate decision and rising oil prices amid Middle East tensions. The BoE kept the rate at 3.75%, with only one committee member voting for a hike. The governor described the decision as a deliberate pause, emphasizing the need to monitor the impact of energy prices on inflation amid slowing economic activity. Additional support came from the oil market, where prices continued to rise after the US maintained restrictions on Iran, raising concerns about prolonged supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Investors are also watching the domestic political landscape, including upcoming local elections that may influence the government’s standing.

ট্রেডিং সুপারিশসমূহ

• সহায়তার মাত্রা: 1.3571, 1.3528, 1.3463, 1.3380, 1.3300, 1.3252
• প্রতিরোধের মাত্রা: 1.3631, 1.3670

The pound is trading within a range between 1.3571 and 1.3631. Below 1.3571 lies a liquidity pool, which, combined with a liquidity void, forms a demand zone. Buyers are expected to defend this area to prevent a decline below 1.3528. Under these conditions, intraday focus should be on long positions after testing 1.3571 or slightly lower. No optimal short setups are present.

বিকল্প দৃশ্যকল্প:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3571
• Res: 1.3631
• Note: Long positions may be considered from 1.3571 or EMA lines with confirmation. No optimal short setups.

The USD/JPY currency pair

মুদ্রা জোড়ার প্রযুক্তিগত সূচক:

• পূর্ববর্তী খোলা: 156.51
• পূর্ববর্তী বন্ধ: 157.06
• সর্বশেষ দিন ধরে % chg.: +0.35%

On Monday, the yen stabilized around 157 per dollar after a turbulent week. The currency recovered part of its losses following the large‑scale May 1 intervention, when the exchange rate surged nearly 3% – from above 160 to around 155.5. The situation remains complicated by the fundamental rate differential: the Federal Reserve maintains its rate at 3.5-3.75%, while the Bank of Japan keeps its rate at 0.75%. This yield gap continues to support dollar strength despite verbal warnings from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama. High oil prices, driven by the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz, also pressure the yen by increasing Japan’s import costs.

ট্রেডিং সুপারিশসমূহ

• সহায়তার মাত্রা: 155.68, 155.34
• প্রতিরোধের মাত্রা: 157.19, 157.32, 157.59, 158.27, 158.55

As expected, the yen moved into a flat range after last week’s intervention. The pair is trading within a wide band between 155.68 and 157.19. The 157.19-157.48 zone forms a defensive barrier from sellers. A breakout above this zone could trigger a sharp move toward 158.55. As long as the price remains within 157.19-155.68, intraday trading should focus on range‑bound strategies.

বিকল্প দৃশ্যকল্প:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 155.68
• Res: 157.19
• Note: Short positions are appropriate from 157.19-157.48 with confirmation. For long positions, consider the demand zone near 155.68, also with confirmation.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

মুদ্রা জোড়ার প্রযুক্তিগত সূচক:

• পূর্ববর্তী খোলা: 4627
• পূর্ববর্তী বন্ধ: 4614
• সর্বশেষ দিন ধরে % chg.: -0.28%

On Monday, gold held above $4600 per ounce, balancing between cautious optimism and geopolitical uncertainty. Markets reacted positively to reports that Iran is reviewing Washington’s response to its peace proposal, while Donald Trump’s initiative to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz is seen as an attempt to unblock global trade without direct escalation. Despite temporary stabilization, gold has lost about 12% over ten weeks of conflict. The main limiting factor remains the hawkish stance of global central banks: high energy prices keep inflation elevated, forcing regulators to maintain tight policy, which traditionally reduces the appeal of the non‑yielding metal.

ট্রেডিং সুপারিশসমূহ

• সহায়তার মাত্রা: 4562, 4542, 4528
• প্রতিরোধের মাত্রা: 4643, 4670, 4701, 4772, 4798, 4825

Gold is forming a wide volatile range between 4562 and 4643. The price is currently moving toward the lower boundary, and buyers are already attempting to absorb declines near 4600. Under these conditions, intraday focus should be on long positions from EMA lines or from the 4562 area. Buyers will likely defend 4542; otherwise, the decline may continue.

বিকল্প দৃশ্যকল্প:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4562
• Res: 4643
• Note: Long positions are appropriate from 4600 or 4562 with confirmation. No optimal short setups at the moment.