主要貨幣對的分析概要 2025.05.14

The EUR/USD currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 1.1086
• 前一收盤價: 1.1185
• 過去一天的變化%: +0.89 %

The US dollar weakened after Consumer Price Inflation in April fell to 2.3%, the lowest level since February 2021 and slightly below expectations of 2.4%. Core inflation held steady at 2.8% year-on-year, matching a four-year low. In contrast, the euro benefited from a falling US dollar and positive economic news. The ZEW Index of German economic sentiment jumped to 25.2 in May, well above the expectations of 11.9, reflecting growing optimism for the next six months due to the formation of a new federal government, progress in resolving trade disputes, and signs of stabilizing inflation.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 1.1088, 1.1017, 1.0902
• 阻力價位: 1.1196, 1.1293, 1.1379

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The euro corrected and reached the resistance level of 1.1196, where you can consider sell trades if sellers take the initiative. There is also a downtrend line located here. A breakout of this line may cause a sharp rise in price to 1.1293, where we can also consider selling if sellers take the initiative.

選擇場景:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.1293 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 1.3168
• 前一收盤價: 1.3306
• 過去一天的變化%: +1.05 %

The UK unemployment rate rose to a 2021 high of 4.5%, matching expectations, while businesses cut jobs for the third consecutive month. Wage growth also slowed, although it remained well above the 3% level generally considered necessary to keep inflation near the 2% target. The data slightly increased market expectations for additional rate cuts by the Bank of England. The Central Bank cut borrowing costs by 25bps last week, as expected, although the decision was far from unanimous.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 1.3300, 1.3222, 1.3121
• 阻力價位: 1.3322, 1.3356, 1.3382

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD on the hourly time frame is bearish. The British pound rose sharply yesterday and reached the level of priority shift of 1.3322. A breakout of this level will open the way to 1.3356 and 1.3382. However, there is a high probability that sellers will become more active here, which will lead to the price decline to 1.3222. In general, it is important to evaluate the price reaction to the intermediate level of 1.3300. If the buyers can hold it, the medium-term trend will change to an upward one.

選擇場景:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.3322 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 148.43
• 前一收盤價: 147.47
• 過去一天的變化%: -0.65 %

The Japanese yen strengthened to 147 per dollar on Wednesday, marking the second consecutive session of gains, amid a weaker dollar following softer-than-expected US inflation data. Domestic data showed Japan’s producer prices rose 4% year-on-year in April, up from 4.2% in March, the slowest pace since December. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan maintained a cautious policy stance, citing heightened uncertainty over economic activity and inflation dynamics.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 147.61, 146.27, 145.71, 144.80
• 阻力價位: 148.28, 150.47

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bullish. The Japanese yen reached a significant resistance level at 148.28, above which there was a large accumulation of liquidity. The absence of divergence indicates a high probability of growth continuation. Currently, the price has corrected to the moving average lines. Probably, the price can flatten here to accumulate new liquidity for new growth. For buying, we can consider the support level of 147.13, provided that buyers react. For selling, there are no optimal entry points right now.

選擇場景:

if the price breaks the support level of 144.80 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 3240
• 前一收盤價: 3251
• 過去一天的變化%: +0.34 %

Gold fell to $3,240 per ounce on Wednesday, rebounding from the previous session’s gains as easing trade tensions between the US and China continue to weigh on gold’s appeal as a safe-haven. Meanwhile, gold found some support after the US annual inflation rate in April fell to 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021 and below market expectations of 2.4%. The report lends support to the underperforming metals as it gives the Federal Reserve more leeway to potentially cut interest rates. According to the World Gold Council, net inflows into gold ETFs totaled 115 tons in April — the fifth consecutive monthly increase and the largest in three years — largely driven by nearly 65 tons from China.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 3223, 3194
• 阻力價位: 3274, 3320, 3347, 3370

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish, but close to a shift. Gold is trading at a priority shift level for the third day in a row. Intraday bias remains with the sellers. For selling, the 3259 resistance level or the downtrend line can be considered. The profit target is the support level of 3194. A breakout and consolidation above 3259 may trigger a rise to 3220.

選擇場景:

if the price breaks and consolidates below the support level of 3223, the downtrend will likely resume.