主要貨幣對的分析概要 2025.08.04

The EUR/USD currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 1.1415
• 前一收盤價: 1.1586
• 過去一天的變化%: +1.50 %

The Euro climbed above $1.15, helped by a weaker-than-expected US jobs report, which reinforced expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. The US non-farm payrolls rose by 73,000 in July, falling short of the forecast of 100,000, while the May and June figures were also revised downwards. This puts the probability of a Fed rate cut in September at 75%, significantly higher than the 45% before the report. In Europe, further ECB rate cuts seem less likely as inflation is expected to remain above the central bank’s forecasts in the near term. Nevertheless, markets estimated the probability of a 25bp ECB rate cut by December at 60%, up from 50% before the US data release. The latest data showed that Eurozone consumer inflation in July came in at 2.0%, slightly above the 1.9% expected by markets.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 1.1515, 1.1485, 1.1375, 1.1313
• 阻力價位: 1.1611, 1.1710, 1.1770

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. On Friday, the euro rose sharply against the backdrop of the dollar’s decline. Currently, the price seeks to test the level of priority change at 1.1611. Intraday, traders can consider buying from the EMA lines or the support level of 1.1515, but with confirmation. For selling, 1.1611 can be considered, but with the seller’s initiative.

選擇場景:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.1611 and consolidates above it, the uptrend is likely to resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 1.3206
• 前一收盤價: 1.3280
• 過去一天的變化%: +0.56 %

The British pound rebounded to $1.329 from an 11-week low on the back of a weaker US Dollar following the release of a softer-than-expected employment report that signaled a cooling labor market. However, sterling fell sharply by 3.8% in July, its worst monthly performance since September 2022, as concerns over the UK’s economic outlook and financial health continued to weigh on sentiment. Investors are increasingly pessimistic about the growth prospects of the UK economy, fueling expectations that the Bank of England may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in August and another cut is likely by the end of the year as it shifts focus to supporting growth.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 1.3214, 1.3137
• 阻力價位: 1.3313, 1.3368, 1.3402, 1.3452, 1.3470

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD is bearish. The British pound, as well as the euro, sharply strengthened on Friday after the report on the US labor market. Currently, the price is seeking to test the resistance level of 1.3313. Intraday, traders can consider buying from the EMA lines or the support level of 1.3214. For selling, 1.1313 can be considered, but only with confirmation in the form of the seller’s reaction.

選擇場景:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.3470 and consolidates above it, the uptrend is likely to resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 150.71
• 前一收盤價: 147.41
• 過去一天的變化%: -2.23 %

The Japanese yen weakened to 148 per dollar on Monday, retreating after rising in the previous session as investors reassessed the policy trajectory of the US Federal Reserve. While Friday’s US jobs report reinforced expectations of a rate cut soon, Fed officials maintained a cautious stance, citing inflation risks from President Trump’s sweeping tariffs. The dollar regained ground amid the change in sentiment, putting pressure on the yen. Meanwhile, markets are awaiting minutes from the latest Bank of Japan meeting for clues on the timing of a potential rate hike. Last week, the BoJ left rates unchanged but raised its inflation forecast, while noting growing uncertainty over global trade tensions.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 147.21, 146.34
• 阻力價位: 147.89, 148.54, 149.18, 150.34

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY has changed to a downtrend. On Friday, the yen sharply strengthened on the back of the decline in the dollar index and consolidated below the level of priority change. Currently, the price is testing the resistance level at 147.89, and it is important to evaluate the price action here. Seller initiative from 147.89 will open up selling opportunities. An impulsive breakout of 147.89, on the contrary, will open the price to 148.54 and higher.

選擇場景:

if the price breaks through the support level of 150.91 and consolidates below it, there is a high probability that the downtrend will resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 3290
• 前一收盤價: 3362
• 過去一天的變化%: +2.18 %

Spot gold prices rose nearly 2% to surpass $3350 an ounce on Friday as the latest US jobs report added to evidence of a cooling labor market and heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. The US economy added just 73,000 jobs in July, falling short of the 100,000 forecast by analysts, while the May and June figures were also revised downward. As such, markets are now pricing in a 75% chance of a September rate cut, down from 45% before the report. In addition, President Trump confirmed plans to impose a 10% base tariff and imposed new retaliatory duties of up to 41% on countries that do not have trade agreements with the US. He also announced 40% tariffs on goods believed to be diverted through third countries to circumvent existing duties.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 3351, 3333, 3311, 3281
• 阻力價位: 3377, 3401, 3438

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD has changed to an upward trend. Gold has formed a “locked-in” balance below 3311, and now the captured liquidity is being distributed above resistance levels. Price is now looking to test liquidity above 3377. For buying, it is better to wait for a pullback to 3351 or 3333. Currently, there are no optimal entry points for selling.

選擇場景:

if the price breaks the support level of 3281 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.