主要貨幣對的分析概要 2025.09.25

The EUR/USD currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 1.1812
• 前一收盤價: 1.1737
• 過去一天的變化%: -0.64 %

The euro fell to $1.178, retreating from a four-year high of $1.192 reached on September 17, after weaker-than-expected sentiment in Germany weighed on the currency. The Ifo Business Climate Index fell 1.2 points to 87.7 in September, its lowest level since May and below market expectations of 89.3. This came after a mixed PMI survey showed Eurozone private sector growth in September, driven by stronger-than-expected growth in the services sector, while manufacturing declined again. Meanwhile, investors digested comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who confirmed a cautious stance on future rate decisions amid continued inflationary pressure from tariffs and a softening labor market. Money markets are now pricing in a more than 90% chance of a Fed rate cut in October, with Friday’s US PCE Price Index serving as a benchmark.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 1.1727, 1.1704
• 阻力價位: 1.1763, 1.1786, 1.1825, 1.1858

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. The two-day accumulation ended with a breakdown of 1.1786, which led to a decline to 1.1727. It should be noted that the GBP/USD currency pair updated its weekly low, while the EUR/USD did not. This is an SMT divergence, which in most cases is a harbinger of a reversal. Intraday, we can consider buying from 1.1727 with a target of 1.1786 and above. There are no optimal entry points for selling at the moment.

選擇場景:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.1704 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 1.3518
• 前一收盤價: 1.3445
• 過去一天的變化%: -0.54 %

The pound sterling traded lower on Wednesday as business activity growth in the United Kingdom slowed in September. The S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) flash came in below expectations at 51.0, compared to projections of 52.7 and 53.5 in August, indicating overall growth in business activity, but at a moderate pace. Overall business activity growth declined due to continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.2, while it was expected to remain at 47.0. A reading below 50.0 is considered a decline in business activity. The S&P Global Services PMI fell to 51.9 from a prognosis of 53.5 and a previous reading of 54.2. Signs of a cooling UK labour market and declining business activity may prompt the Bank of England (BoE) to become dovish on interest rates.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 1.3398
• 阻力價位: 1.3459, 1.3530, 1.3585, 1.3635, 1.3713

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD is a downtrend. The British pound looks weaker than the euro, but it is important to note that an SMT divergence has formed between the instruments, which is often a harbinger of a reversal. Moreover, an additional indicator divergence has formed on the pound itself. Intraday, buy deals can be considered after the price consolidates above 1.3459. If the price fails to consolidate above this level, another update of the weekly low may occur.

選擇場景:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.3635 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 147.58
• 前一收盤價: 148.85
• 過去一天的變化%: +0.86 %

According to the minutes of the July meeting, some members of the Bank of Japan’s board spoke in favor of future rate hikes, even though the Central Bank unanimously kept its interest rate policy unchanged. According to the BoJ board, the economy is recovering at a moderate pace, albeit with some weaknesses. The board also stressed the need to monitor the impact of US tariffs, with one member suggesting that it may take another two to three months to fully assess their impact. Private consumption remains robust thanks to rising employment and incomes, despite deteriorating sentiment due to higher prices.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 148.26, 147.97, 147.46, 147.14, 146.86
• 阻力價位: 148.76, 149.13

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is upward. The price has reached a strong resistance zone of 148.76-149.13. Given the MACD divergence, a correction to 148.26 is possible here. Intraday, sales to this level can be considered. There are currently no optimal entry points for buy deals.

選擇場景:

if the price breaks through the support level of 146.86 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 3764
• 前一收盤價: 3730
• 過去一天的變化%: -0.91%

On Thursday, the price of gold fluctuated around $3730 per ounce. Markets continued to assess the prospects for changes in Federal Reserve interest rates. Chairman Jerome Powell spoke cautiously, emphasizing the difficulty of striking a balance between stable inflation and slowing labor market growth, while Fed officials remain divided: some expecting two additional rate cuts this year, others advocating a more measured approach, and still others calling for more aggressive policy easing. US new home sales in August also unexpectedly rose to their highest level since early 2022, easing concerns about an economic slowdown and further complicating the prospects for additional rate cuts. Meanwhile, gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset continued to be supported by geopolitical tensions: NATO warned Russia that it would use “all necessary military and non-military measures” to defend itself, while President Trump said that Ukraine could regain all territories held by Russia.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 3736, 3700, 3672
• 阻力價位: 3750, 3800

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold appears to have formed a locked balance above 3750, and this zone will now act as an area of resistance. For the bullish rally to resume, we need to see a breakout above 3750 and, preferably, consolidation above the downtrend line. Until that happens, intraday selling can be considered if the price consolidates below 3736 again.

選擇場景:

if the price breaks the support level of 3636 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.