主要貨幣對的分析概要 2025.09.29

The EUR/USD currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 1.1658
• 前一收盤價: 1.1700
• 過去一天的變化%: +0.36 %

The euro fell below the 1.17 USD mark at the end of September, erasing gains made earlier in the month in 2021. Markets still anticipate at least two more 25 bp rate cuts from the Fed this year, even as recent data points to a resilient US economy and labor market. In Europe, expectations are for the ECB’s easing cycle to be complete after the Central Bank left rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting in September. Economic data continues to paint a mixed picture, with Services PMIs showing signs of recovery while the downturn in manufacturing deepens. On the trade front, US President Trump announced 100% tariffs on branded or patented pharmaceuticals, though the European Commission stated it secured a 15% tariff cap on pharmaceutical products from the US. Meanwhile, the EC is reportedly preparing to impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 50% on Chinese steel imports.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 1.1702, 1.1661, 1.1634
• 阻力價位: 1.1728, 1.1754, 1.1786, 1.1819

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is downward. The euro reached the support level of 1.1661, where sellers began taking profits on previously opened positions. This led to a corrective move, but it is too early to call a full reversal. Today, traders’ focus is on the resistance level of 1.1728. A breakout of this level with an impulse move will clear the path for the price to 1.1754 and higher. If sellers react to 1.1728, traders could consider intra-day selling to continue the downward movement.

選擇場景:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.1819 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 1.3338
• 前一收盤價: 1.3399
• 過去一天的變化%: +0.46 %

Governor Andrew Bailey acknowledged that UK inflation is on track to decline but tied future easing directly to progress in consumer prices. This indecision is complicated by other MPC members, like Megan Greene, cautioning against premature cuts amid persistent upside risks. Political noise in London – calls for renationalization of utilities and large-scale borrowing schemes – has unsettled gilt markets already strained by erratic demand. Amid unusually high household savings and easing labor conditions, the pound is struggling to find a firm footing against the dollar.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 1.3388, 1.3332, 1.3315
• 阻力價位: 1.3434, 1.3463, 1.3491, 1.3532

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD is a downtrend. The pound, similarly to the euro, found support at 1.3332 and corrected towards the resistance level of 1.3434. It’s important to assess the price action here. An impulsive breakout of this level will clear the path for the price to 1.3463 and higher. If sellers react to 1.3434, intraday selling towards 1.3388 could be considered.

選擇場景:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.3532 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 149.77
• 前一收盤價: 149.50
• 過去一天的變化%: -0.18 %

The yen strengthened to around 149 per dollar on Monday, posting a second consecutive session of gains amid a drop in the dollar due to fears over a potential US government shutdown. Japan is set to release a series of key data, including the Tankan business sentiment survey, Consumer Confidence Index, industrial production, retail sales data, and the Bank of Japan’s latest Summary of Opinions report. Minutes from the BoJ’s July meeting showed that policymakers remain open to further rate hikes if growth and inflation evolve as expected. While the central bank left rates unchanged in September, two dissenting votes underscored the prospect of additional policy tightening. On the political front, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party will elect a new leader on October 4 to replace the outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 148.88, 148.36, 147.95, 147.50
• 阻力價位: 150.00, 150.73

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is upward. The price fell slightly short of the psychological 150 mark. A corrective decline started earlier, and the price is currently trading at the support level of 148.88. Price action is key here. A break and sustained move below this level will clear the path for the price to 148.36, while a bullish reaction will open opportunities for buying towards 150.

選擇場景:

if the price breaks through the support level of 147.50 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 3747
• 前一收盤價: 3766
• 過去一天的變化%: +0.51%

Gold prices soared to a record high above $3,800 per ounce on Monday, driven by increasing expectations for further US rate cuts and a weakening dollar. Friday’s US PCE inflation data came in line with expectations, reinforcing bets that the Federal Reserve has scope to continue easing policy later this year. Markets are currently pricing in a 90% chance of a rate cut in October and a 65% chance of additional action in December. Meanwhile, investors are assessing the risk of a US government shutdown, which could delay the release of key labor market data and complicate the Fed’s decision-making process. On the trade front, President Donald Trump last week announced a new round of tariffs on imported drugs, trucks, and furniture set to take effect on October 1, adding further uncertainty to the economic outlook.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 3800, 3760, 3718
• 阻力價位: 3850

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold has continued its rally. The price has impulsively broken and sustained above 3800, increasing the probability of further growth. To signal a reversal or correction, we would need to see a locked balance above the resistance level or a bearish impulse move, at the very least. Since neither is present, looking for sell trades is premature, even with the MACD divergence. For buying opportunities to continue the trend, the best levels to consider are the EMA lines or the 3800 level, but only with confirmation in the form of a bullish reaction.

選擇場景:

if the price breaks the support level of 3636 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.