主要貨幣對的分析概要 2026.01.23

The EUR/USD currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 1.1682
• 前一收盤價: 1.1755
• 過去一天的變化%: +0.62%

According to the December 2025 meeting minutes, the ECB Governing Council considers the current monetary policy to be generally adequate. Officials noted that economic activity has proven more resilient than expected, unemployment remains at historically low levels, and inflation projections appear favorable – price growth is expected to remain near the target level throughout the outlook horizon. The regulator confirmed that the policy will adapt to changing conditions rather than following a predetermined path. In December 2025, the ECB left rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time: the key refinancing rate remained at 2.15% and the deposit rate at 2%. Given the policy differential with the US Federal Reserve, the euro currently holds a medium-term advantage over the dollar.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 1.1726, 1.1697, 1.1673, 1.1645, 1.1634, 1.1618
• 阻力價位: 1.1765, 1.1786

The euro rebounded sharply yesterday from the 1.1673 support level and is currently trading above the EMA lines and the 1.1726 support. Today, the focus is on liquidity above the 1.1765 resistance. Given the formed SMT divergence with GBP/USD, there is a high probability of profit-taking and the development of a corrective move. Short positions (sells) can be considered near 1.1765, but only with price confirmation. For long positions (buys), it is advisable to wait for a corrective wave toward the EMA lines or a retest of the 1.1726 support level.

選擇場景:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 1.1726
• Res: 1.1765
• Note: For buy deals, wait for a correction to the EMA lines or the 1.1726 support. For sells, consider the 1.1765 resistance level with confirmation.

The GBP/USD currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 1.3426
• 前一收盤價: 1.3499
• 過去一天的變化%: +0.54 %

The British pound strengthened to approximately $1.348, reaching a two-week high amid signs of easing tensions between the US and Europe. The public sector budget deficit narrowed to £11.6 billion in December, coming in below market expectations of £13 billion. Annual CPI inflation accelerated to 3.4%, slightly exceeding the 3.3% prognosis. Meanwhile, services inflation, closely watched by the Bank of England as an indicator of domestic price pressure, rose from 4.4% to 4.5%, which was weaker than expected.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 1.3486, 1.3456, 1.3411, 1.3389
• 阻力價位: 1.3516, 1.3526, 1.3586

The British pound is holding above the 1.3486 level, with an SMT divergence formed against EUR/USD. This pattern often appears ahead of a corrective move and indicates a weakening of current momentum. Today, the 1.3486 support remains key. In the event of an impulsive breakout and price consolidation below this level, intraday sells can be considered as part of a correction toward 1.3456. There are currently no optimal entry points for buys.

選擇場景:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 1.3486
• Res: 1.3516
• Note: Sell trades can be considered after a breakout below 1.3486. No optimal entry points for buys today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 158.29
• 前一收盤價: 158.37
• 過去一天的變化%: -0.05 %

On Friday, the Japanese yen weakened to around 158.7 per dollar, continuing its decline after the Bank of Japan, as expected, left the key interest rate unchanged at 0.75%. The regulator confirmed its readiness to tighten policy further should economic growth and inflation expectations materialize, while upwardly revising four out of six inflation projections. However, traders remain concerned about additional pressure on the yen if BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda does not provide clearer signals regarding new rate hikes amid rising fiscal risks, which have already triggered a sell-off in Japanese government bonds and the currency. The situation is exacerbated by political uncertainty: Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is preparing to dissolve parliament and call snap elections to strengthen her power and continue expansionary fiscal policies.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 158.59, 158.24, 157.89, 157.51, 156.56, 156.26
• 阻力價位: 158.88, 159.17

The yen continues to weaken against the dollar. The BoJ provided no signals of further monetary tightening, creating favorable conditions for a continued yen decline. Technically, the price is retesting the key resistance level of 158.88, and the sellers’ reaction is noticeably weakening. This increases the probability of a breakout, with a subsequent move toward 159.12 and, in an extended scenario, up to 159.50.

選擇場景:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 158.59
• Res: 158.88
• Note: For buy deals, wait for a breakout above 158.88. No optimal entry points for sells.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 4832
• 前一收盤價: 4916
• 過去一天的變化%: +1.02 %

On Thursday, gold reached a record high of approximately $4,920 per ounce as investors re-evaluated the balance between resilient US macroeconomic data and easing geopolitical risks. Revised GDP figures and stable consumer spending confirmed that the US economy maintains a solid foundation, tempering expectations for immediate monetary easing. Simultaneously, inflation data reinforced confidence that price growth remains gradual rather than accelerating: both headline and core PCE indices rose by 0.2% monthly, matching the outlook exactly. This combination allowed markets to solidify expectations of a restrictive policy stance without the risk of further tightening, supporting gold demand.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 4881, 4832, 4756, 4677
• 阻力價位: 5000

Gold continues to hit all-time highs and is moving steadily toward the $5,000 per ounce mark (a strong psychological and options level). Selling at current levels appears premature until a large seller emerges. Currently, there are no signs of such presence or active profit-taking by buyers. The market structure remains bullish. Therefore, intraday priority should still be given to long positions, targeting the nearest support levels and dynamic EMA lines.

選擇場景:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 4881
• Res: 5000
• Note: Look only for intraday buys from the nearest support levels or EMA lines. No current basis for sell deals.