主要貨幣對的分析概要 2026.05.01

The EUR/USD currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 1.1673
• 前一收盤價: 1.1730
• 過去一天的變化%: +0.49%

At its April meeting, the ECB kept key interest rates unchanged: the main refinancing rate remained at 2.15%, and the deposit facility rate at 2.0%. The regulator adopted a wait‑and‑see approach, assessing how the conflict in Iran may affect price dynamics and economic activity. Although the Eurozone still has a buffer to withstand the period of uncertainty, the ECB noted rising inflationary risks as well as growing threats to economic growth. Long‑term inflation expectations remain relatively stable, but short‑term expectations have increased noticeably. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized at the press conference that the decision was unanimous, although various scenarios – including a rate hike – were discussed.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 1.1720, 1.1690, 1.1643, 1.1605
• 阻力價位: 1.1763, 1.1791, 1.1823, 1.1849, 1.1894

The euro strengthened yesterday amid a weaker dollar and the ECB’s hawkish tone. Technically, the price consolidated above 1.1720, and buyers are likely to defend this zone. With European markets closed today, volatility is expected mainly during the US session. Long positions may be considered from 1.1720, but only with confirmation. If the price breaks impulsively below this level, a correction toward 1.1690 is possible, though this scenario is unlikely today.

選擇場景:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1720
• Res: 1.1763
• Note: Long positions are appropriate from 1.1720 with confirmation. Short positions only if the price firmly breaks below 1.1720.

The GBP/USD currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 1.3475
• 前一收盤價: 1.3603
• 過去一天的變化%: +0.95%

The Bank of England voted 8-1 to keep the key rate at 3.75%. One committee member supported raising it to 4%, and some policymakers acknowledged that further tightening may still be necessary. The regulator noted that the Middle East situation has increased uncertainty around global energy prices. While monetary policy cannot directly influence them, the Bank’s task is to keep inflation near the 2% target in the medium term. Much will depend on the depth and duration of the external shock and its impact on the economy. Annual CPI inflation accelerated to 3.3% and may continue rising due to higher energy costs being passed through to consumers, increasing the risk of second‑round effects in wages and pricing. At the same time, a weakening labor market and slowing economic activity may partially restrain inflation, while tighter financial conditions amid geopolitical tensions will likely limit demand.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 1.3571, 1.3528, 1.3463, 1.3380, 1.3300, 1.3252
• 阻力價位: 1.3631, 1.3670

British pound strengthened sharply yesterday. Technically, the price consolidated above the EMA lines and above previous supply zones, indicating a potential medium‑term structural shift. Under such market conditions, long positions are appropriate from 1.3571 or from the EMA lines. The target is resistance at 1.3631. There are no optimal entry points for short positions at the moment.

選擇場景:

• Trend: Uptrend
• Sup: 1.3571
• Res: 1.3631
• Note: Consider long positions from 1.3571 or from EMA lines with confirmation. No optimal short setups currently.

The USD/JPY currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 160.34
• 前一收盤價: 156.57
• 過去一天的變化%: -2.45%

Japanese yen strengthened by about 2.5%, dropping below 157 per dollar, a move widely interpreted as likely intervention by the Bank of Japan. Earlier in the day, officials issued strong warnings against further yen weakening, and the finance minister stated that authorities were close to taking decisive action. The exchange rate had reached 160 per dollar, the lowest since mid‑2024, when the BoJ last intervened. Last week, the Bank of Japan kept its key rate at 0.75%, attempting to balance inflation risks with concerns about economic slowdown amid Middle East tensions. Some board members have already expressed support for policy tightening, and the governor confirmed the intention to gradually raise rates.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 156.91, 156.43, 155.68
• 阻力價位: 157.32, 157.59, 158.27, 158.55

The situation changed dramatically after the intervention. The yen strengthened sharply from 160.50 to 155.68 within hours. Typically, after such moves, the price forms a consolidation range to accumulate liquidity. The pair is now approaching a potential supply zone at 157.32-157.59, where short positions may be considered, but only with confirmation. A breakout above this zone opens the path toward 158.27-158.55.

選擇場景:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 156.91
• Res: 157.32
• Note: Short positions are appropriate from 157.32–157.59 with confirmation. No optimal long setups at the moment.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 4600
• 前一收盤價: 4620
• 過去一天的變化%: +0.43%

On Thursday, gold prices resumed their upward movement, rising above $4600 per ounce after rebounding from a monthly low. The rise was supported by a weaker dollar and slightly lower oil prices. Geopolitics also drew investor attention: reports emerged that US military officials are preparing potential action scenarios against Iran for President Donald Trump. Trump stated that the naval blockade of Iran would remain in place until a nuclear agreement is reached. Against this backdrop, market participants began reassessing monetary policy expectations – instead of earlier projections of rate cuts, they increasingly price in the possibility of rate hikes further down the line.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 4580, 4542, 4528
• 阻力價位: 4609, 4643, 4670, 4701, 4772, 4798, 4825

Gold is trading within a demand zone between 4580 and 4609. Selling in such zones is not recommended until a similar supply zone forms. Under current conditions, long positions are appropriate after the price consolidates above 4609, confirming that buyers are defending the demand zone and opening the path toward 4643. Long positions from 4580 are also possible, but only with confirmation. There are no optimal short setups at the moment.

選擇場景:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4580
• Res: 4609
• Note: Long positions are appropriate after consolidation above 4609. Longs from 4580 are also possible with confirmation. No optimal short setups currently.