主要貨幣對的分析概要 2026.05.13

The EUR/USD currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 1.1779
• 前一收盤價: 1.1737
• 過去一天的變化%: -0.36%

The euro fell to 1.17 dollars, retreating from its nearly three‑week high. Investors continue to assess the consequences of escalating tensions between the US and Iran, as well as the prospects for further tightening by the ECB. Sentiment worsened after US President Donald Trump called Tehran’s latest peace proposal unacceptable, pushing Brent oil prices above 105 dollars per barrel and increasing concerns about inflation in Europe. Against this backdrop, money markets are already pricing in three ECB rate hikes by the end of the year, with the probability of the first step in June exceeding 86%.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 1.1724, 1.1695, 1.1559, 1.1605
• 阻力價位: 1.1748, 1.1768, 1.1791, 1.1823, 1.1849, 1.1894

The euro fell to the support level of 1.1724, where buyers showed initiative. This increases the likelihood of a rebound toward 1.1748. Long positions are best considered after the price consolidates above 1.1748. Short positions are appropriate either from the 1.1748 resistance (with confirmation) or after the price consolidates below 1.1724, which will open the way toward 1.1695.

選擇場景:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.172
• Res: 1.1748
• Note: Long positions may be considered after the price consolidates above 1.1748. An impulsive breakout of 1.1724 may lead to a decline toward 1.1695.

The GBP/USD currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 1.3610
• 前一收盤價: 1.3539
• 過去一天的變化%: -0.52%

The British pound retreated from its nearly two‑month highs amid ongoing political uncertainty in the UK and prolonged negotiations between the US and Iran. Pressure on the British currency increased after more than 70 Labour MPs called on Prime Minister Keir Starmer to resign following the party’s weak performance in local elections. Despite this, Starmer stated he intends to remain in office.

Another destabilizing factor is the situation in the Middle East. Brent oil prices rose above 105 dollars per barrel. Rising energy prices intensified inflation concerns and pushed traders to revise monetary‑policy expectations: markets now price in nearly three additional Bank of England rate hikes by year‑end.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 1.3514, 1.3463, 1.3380, 1.3300, 1.3252
• 阻力價位: 1.3553, 1.3596, 1.3637, 1.3670

The British pound reached the liquidity pocket below 1.3514, after which buyers showed initiative. Today, the focus is on the liquidity void above 1.3553. If sellers show initiative there, it will open opportunities for selling toward 1.3514. A breakout and impulsive consolidation above 1.3553 will open the way toward 1.3596.

選擇場景:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3514
• Res: 1.3553
• Note: For selling, evaluate price reaction at 1.3553. Long positions may be considered after an impulsive breakout above 1.3553.

The USD/JPY currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 157.12
• 前一收盤價: 157.60
• 過去一天的變化%: +0.30%

On Wednesday, the Japanese yen weakened to 158 per dollar, continuing its decline for the third session in a row amid a strengthening US currency following higher‑than‑expected US inflation data. Rising price pressure increased expectations of further monetary tightening in the US, supporting higher Treasury yields and intensifying pressure on the yen. In Japan, investor attention was focused on the Bank of Japan’s April “Summary of Opinions,” where the possibility of another rate hike at the next meeting was discussed. The OECD also stated that the BOJ’s policy rate could reach 2% by the end of 2027. Meanwhile, the currency market continues to closely monitor the risk of new interventions from Tokyo.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 157.01, 156.06, 155.49, 154.86
• 阻力價位: 157.75, 158.55

The situation has hardly changed compared to yesterday. The yen reached the resistance level of 157.75, where authorities previously intervened, and the price again sharply bounced from this level. But buyers showed initiative after testing liquidity below 157, and now the price is again testing 157.75, but without significant seller reaction. This increases the likelihood of a breakout, which could open the way toward 158.55. In case of a sharp rejection, the price may again correct to 156.98 or even 156.46.

選擇場景:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 157.00
• Res: 157.75
• Note: Short positions may be considered from 157.75 if sellers react. Long positions are possible after an impulsive consolidation above 158.00 with an initial target of 158.55.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 4741
• 前一收盤價: 4715
• 過去一天的變化%: -0.55%

On Tuesday, gold fell below 4690 dollars per ounce amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which supported rising oil prices and intensified inflation concerns. Another negative factor for gold was stronger‑than‑expected US inflation data. In April, consumer prices rose 3.8% year‑on‑year – the highest since May 2023 and above the projections of 3.7%, while core inflation accelerated to 2.8%. The data strengthened expectations that US monetary policy will remain tight: markets have almost completely ruled out rate cuts this year and have begun pricing in a high probability of further hikes in 2027.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 4687, 4648, 4611, 4554, 4518
• 阻力價位: 4748, 4772, 4798

Gold fell to the support level of 4648, where buyers showed sharp initiative after testing liquidity. A structural shift occurred, opening potential opportunities for growth today. For long positions, it is best to use EMA lines or the support level of 4687. Short positions become relevant if the price impulsively closes below 4687.

選擇場景:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4687
• Res: 4748
• Note: Long positions may be considered from EMA lines or from 4687. Short positions become relevant if the price impulsively closes below 4687.