主要貨幣對的分析概要 2026.05.15

The EUR/USD currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 1.1707
• 前一收盤價: 1.1668
• 過去一天的變化%: -0.33%

The lack of progress toward a full peace agreement continues to restrict shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, supporting high oil prices and increasing inflationary pressure in the eurozone. Against this backdrop, money markets almost fully price in an ECB rate hike in June, as well as three additional hikes by the end of 2026. Additional support for expectations of tighter ECB policy came from comments by Governing Council member Martins Kazaks, who stated that rising oil prices may force the central bank to raise borrowing costs to prevent inflation expectations from becoming entrenched.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 1.1605, 1.1560
• 阻力價位: 1.1643, 1.1659, 1.1681, 1.1696, 1.1722

The euro is under pressure from the rising U.S. dollar. The price is breaking through all major support levels without any resistance from buyers. At the moment, the price has fallen to the daily liquidity zone below 1.1643, but even here there is no buyer reaction. This increases the likelihood of a decline toward 1.1605. There are currently no optimal entry points for long positions.

選擇場景:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 1.1605
• Res: 1.1643
• Note: Long positions may be considered only after an impulsive return above 1.1659. While the price remains below this level, the intraday focus is on selling from 1.1659 or 1.1643.

The GBP/USD currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 1.3519
• 前一收盤價: 1.3402
• 過去一天的變化%: -0.87%

On Thursday, the British pound fell to 1.34 dollars, reaching its lowest level in a month amid growing political instability in the UK. Pressure on the currency intensified after a series of high‑profile resignations in the Labor Party: MP Josh Simons left Parliament to make room for Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, and Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigned to prepare for a possible leadership bid. Both politicians are seen as potential rivals to Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who faces increasing calls to step down after Labor’s weak performance in recent local elections. Despite political pressure, UK macroeconomic data exceeded expectations. The economy grew by 0.6% in Q1 2026, and annual growth accelerated to 1.1% thanks to an unexpected 0.3% GDP increase in March.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 1.3300, 1.3252
• 阻力價位: 1.3380, 1.3463, 1.3514, 1.3553, 1.3596

The British pound, like the euro, is under pressure from the rising US dollar. The price broke below the daily support level of 1.3380. Although there is a large liquidity cluster below this level, buyers are not reacting. This increases the likelihood of further decline toward 1.3300. Under such market conditions, short positions may be considered from 1.3380 or from EMA lines. Long positions require a strong bullish impulse above 1.3380.

選擇場景:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 1.3300
• Res: 1.3380
• Note: Long positions may be considered only after an impulsive return above 1.3380. While the price remains below this level, the intraday focus is on selling from 1.3380 or EMA lines.

The USD/JPY currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 157.82
• 前一收盤價: 158.35
• 過去一天的變化%: +0.33%

On Friday, the yen weakened to around 158.5 per dollar and is likely to finish the week down more than 1% amid broad US dollar strength. Pressure on the Japanese currency increased after strong U.S. inflation data, which raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high for longer or may even consider additional tightening this year. An additional factor was the steady rise in oil prices caused by the prolonged conflict in the Middle East, which worsens Japan’s external trade balance as an energy‑importing nation. At the same time, part of the dollar’s advance has been offset by earlier interventions by Japanese authorities: the yen has already lost roughly half of the recovery achieved after those operations, fueling speculation about a possible new intervention. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan officials are increasingly signaling readiness for faster rate hikes amid intensifying inflationary pressure linked to the energy shock.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 158.00, 157.33, 156.98
• 阻力價位: 158.55, 159.01

The yen consolidated above the psychological options level of 158.00 and reached the resistance level of 158.55. There is no seller reaction, increasing the likelihood of further growth toward 159.01. Under such market conditions, intraday long positions may be considered from EMA lines or liquidity voids. A renewed intervention by Japanese authorities cannot be ruled out.

選擇場景:

• Trend: Uptrend
• Sup: 158.00
• Res: 158.55
• Note: Long positions are appropriate from EMA lines or liquidity voids. A new intervention by Japanese authorities remains possible.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 4691
• 前一收盤價: 4651
• 過去一天的變化%: -0.86%

On Friday, gold fell to around 4600 dollars per ounce. The market came under pressure from fresh US inflation data: wholesale prices in April rose at the fastest pace since 2022, and consumer prices rose to their highest level since 2023. The increase in inflationary pressure is primarily linked to the prolonged Middle East conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which continues to disrupt global energy supplies and support high oil prices. Against this backdrop, markets have almost completely abandoned expectations of US rate cuts this year, and some investors are already pricing in the possibility of an additional rate hike by December.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 4555, 4518
• 阻力價位: 4611, 4648, 4707

The flat accumulation that lasted more than six trading days ended with a sharp impulsive decline. The price has now fallen to the support level of 4655, which is the origin of a previous bullish impulse. Buyer reaction is present but moderate. This suggests an intraday rebound toward 4611 is possible, but the medium‑term bias remains bearish. It is also worth noting how far the price has deviated from EMA averages. Long positions are possible intraday but with reduced risk, as they go against the trend. For selling, consider 4611 or EMA lines.

選擇場景:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 4555
• Res: 4611
• Note: Long positions are possible intraday as part of a corrective rebound, but with reduced risk. For selling, consider 4611 or EMA lines.