主要貨幣對的分析概要 2026.05.20

The EUR/USD currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 1.1657
• 前一收盤價: 1.1605
• 過去一天的變化%: -0.44%

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair fell to its lowest level in more than a month and ended the session lower amid continued strengthening of the US dollar. Pressure on the euro increased due to rising US Treasury yields and expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain tight monetary policy for a longer period amid accelerating inflation driven by rising energy prices and tensions in the Middle East. The European currency received partial support from comments by an ECB representative and the head of the Bundesbank, who indicated that the ECB may act as early as the June meeting if the energy shock linked to the situation around Iran continues to intensify inflationary pressure. Following these comments, money markets raised the probability of a 25‑basis‑point ECB rate hike in June to around 89%.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 1.1583, 1.1547
• 阻力價位: 1.1613, 1.1629, 1.1656, 1.1659, 1.1681, 1.1696, 1.1722

The euro remains under pressure from the dollar. The intraday bias stays bearish, while MACD shows a developing divergence. With high probability, the price will test liquidity below 1.1583, where a technical correction may begin. For selling, consider 1.1613 and 1.1629, but with confirmation. For buying, an initiative from 1.1583 is required.

選擇場景:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 1.1583
• Res: 1.1613
• Note: Long positions may be considered from 1.1583, but only with confirmation. For selling, consider 1.1613 and 1.1629, also with confirmation.

The GBP/USD currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 1.3430
• 前一收盤價: 1.3394
• 過去一天的變化%: -0.27%

The yield on 10‑year UK government bonds held near 5.07%, as weak labor‑market data forced investors to reassess expectations for further tightening by the Bank of England. In April, employment fell by 100,000 – the sharpest drop since May 2020; unemployment rose to 5%; wage growth slowed to 3.4%; and job vacancies fell to their lowest levels since 2021.

Against this backdrop, markets now price in only two Bank of England rate hikes by year‑end, partially offsetting last week’s sharp rise in yields caused by inflation risks and political uncertainty.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 1.3347, 1.3300, 1.3252
• 阻力價位: 1.3453, 1.3514, 1.3553, 1.3596

An SMT divergence is forming between EUR/USD and GBP/USD – when one instrument updates an extreme (in this case, the euro) and the other does not. Such divergence often precedes a reversal. Under these market conditions, intraday long positions may be considered from 1.3391 or 1.3347, but only if there is a reaction at one of these levels. There are no optimal entry points for selling at the moment.

選擇場景:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 1.3381
• Res: 1.3453
• Note: Long positions may be considered from 1.3391 or 1.3347, but only with reaction. No optimal short‑entry points now.

The USD/JPY currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 158.80
• 前一收盤價: 159.09
• 過去一天的變化%: +0.18%

On Tuesday, the Japanese yen fell to its lowest level in two and a half weeks amid rising US Treasury yields and broad dollar strength. Pressure on the yen persists due to expectations that high US inflation may force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated longer than previously anticipated. However, the yen’s decline was limited by strong macroeconomic data from Japan, which strengthened expectations of further tightening by the Bank of Japan. Japan’s GDP grew by 2.1% year‑over‑year in Q1 versus the expected 1.7%, and the GDP deflator accelerated to 3.4%, exceeding the prognosis. Additional support came from stronger‑than‑expected services data and an upward revision of industrial production. Markets now estimate the probability of a 25‑basis‑point BOJ rate hike at the June 16 meeting at around 75%.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 158.28, 158.00, 157.33, 156.98
• 阻力價位: 159.01, 159.42

The yen has still not consolidated above 159.01 and continues to trade near the level, forming a flat accumulation between 158.65-159.01. The probability of a breakout and a rise to 159.42 remains high, but now a technical pullback to 158.65 is also possible. Traders should focus on an actual breakout and enter long positions only after consolidation above 159.01. Long entries may also be considered from 158.65, but with confirmation. There are no optimal short‑entry points now.

選擇場景:

• Trend: Uptrend
• Sup: 158.65
• Res: 159.01
• Note: Long positions are appropriate after consolidation above 159.01 or from 158.65 in case of a correction. No optimal short‑entry points now.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 4569
• 前一收盤價: 4482
• 過去一天的變化%: -1.94%

Precious metals came under significant pressure: gold fell to a seven‑week low, and silver dropped to its lowest level in about a week and a half. The main factors were rising bond yields and a stronger US dollar, which climbed to a six‑week high, increasing the relative attractiveness of interest‑bearing assets over non‑yielding ones. Another factor was the reduction of speculative positions: there has been a notable liquidation of long positions in precious‑metal ETFs after they previously reached multi‑year highs. This amplified the price decline, especially in silver. At the same time, gold continues to receive fundamental support from central‑bank demand. In particular, the People’s Bank of China increased its gold reserves, extending its multi‑month buying streak, which partially offsets pressure from the dollar and yields – but is not yet enough to counter the current market sell‑off.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 4431, 4350
• 阻力價位: 4514, 4581, 4616, 4648, 4707

Gold remains under pressure, but from a price‑action perspective, signs of slowing momentum are visible: the MACD shows divergence, and lower wicks are lengthening – indicating the presence of a limit buyer slowing the decline. Intraday bias remains bearish, so a liquidity test below 4431 is quite realistic. It is too early to discuss long positions, as buyer initiative is still absent.

選擇場景:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 4431
• Res: 4514
• Note: Intraday short positions are possible from EMA lines or from 4514. Profit target – 4431. No optimal long‑entry points at the moment.