主要貨幣對的分析概要 2026.06.22

The EUR/USD currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 1.1466
• 前一收盤價: 1.1473
• 過去一天的變化%: +0.06%

The dynamics of the euro exchange rate show unprecedented sensitivity to the US bond market. The 30‑day rolling correlation between changes in the single European currency and the yield on US two‑year Treasury notes has reached a historical extreme of 0.84 lower – the strongest reading since 2003. Notably, the euro is also inversely correlated with the yield on Germany’s own two‑year bonds. This week, increased attention will be drawn to the June ZEW investor sentiment survey. In May, the data showed mixed dynamics: the expectations index rose for the first time since January, while the assessment of the current situation deteriorated for the second month in a row, hitting a one‑year low. 

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 1.1452, 1.1415, 1.1383
• 阻力價位: 1.1488, 1.1523, 1.1559

On Friday, the euro fell to the support level of 1.1418, where the first signs of profit‑taking appeared. Against this backdrop, the price rebounded and formed a new support level at 1.1455. Considering the MACD divergence and the price reaction at 1.1455, buy trades can be considered here with a take‑profit around 1.1488. For sell trades, evaluate the price reaction in the liquidity zone above 1.1488 – if sellers become active there, intraday bias may shift toward selling.

選擇場景:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 1.1455
• Res: 1.1488
• Note: Buy trades are considered from the support level of 1.1455 with a take‑profit near 1.1488. For sell trades, evaluate the reaction in the liquidity zone above 1.1488.

 

The GBP/USD currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 1.3203
• 前一收盤價: 1.3234
• 過去一天的變化%: +0.23 %

This week in the UK, attention will shift to fresh PMI data, industrial trends surveys, and retail reports, which will likely show stagnation in services and slower growth in manufacturing. Beyond macroeconomics, the British market will also react to domestic political developments. Traders are closely watching the balance of power after Andy Burnham’s victory in the Makerfield by‑election, as well as the actions of Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who decided to remain in office despite strong calls for resignation.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 1.3179, 1.3126, 1.3093
• 阻力價位: 1.3251, 1.3327, 1.3390

The British pound found support around 1.3179, where buyers became active. Most likely, the price will now begin forming a flat accumulation range between 1.3179 and 1.3251. Under such market conditions, intraday buy trades can be considered from 1.3179, and sell trades from 1.3251 – but only with confirmation of price reaction.

選擇場景:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 1.3179
• Res: 1.3251
• Note: Sell trades are considered from the resistance level of 1.3251 with confirmation. For buy trades, evaluate the price reaction at 1.3179.

The USD/JPY currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 161.34
• 前一收盤價: 161.29
• 過去一天的變化%: -0.03%

In Japan this week, attention will shift to the publication of the Bank of Japan’s “Summary of Opinions” following the June meeting, where the regulator aggressively raised the interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.0% to support the yen and combat inflation caused by the Middle East crisis. Traders will compare these minutes with the new June PMI business activity indices and fresh Tokyo inflation data, where the annual core CPI is expected to accelerate to 1.6%.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 161.19, 160.53, 160.20, 160.05, 159.60, 159.45
• 阻力價位: 162.00

The situation has barely changed compared to Friday. USD/JPY quotes are aiming to update multi‑year highs above 162.00. After consolidating above 161.19, the price now has all prerequisites to do so. Traders should remain alert: on one hand, joining the uptrend via buy trades from 161.19 or from the EMA lines is appropriate, but with confirmation; on the other hand, Japanese authorities may intervene at any moment to support the currency – something they have already done several times this year. Typically, FX interventions occur during the Asian session when market liquidity is low.

選擇場景:

• Trend: Uptrend
• Sup: 161.19
• Res: 162.00
• Note: For buy trades, consider the support level of 161.19 or the EMA lines, but with confirmation. FX intervention by Japanese authorities cannot be ruled out.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 4211
• 前一收盤價: 4154
• 過去一天的變化%: -1.37%

Gold prices fell to 4,150 dollars per ounce – the lowest level since June 11 – and are set to end the week with a third consecutive decline. The main trigger was the strengthening of the US dollar to a yearly high amid hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, which kept rates unchanged but tightened its projections. Additional pressure came from Goldman Sachs, which downgraded its year‑end gold expectation to 4,900 dollars from the previous 5,400. Bearish sentiment completely outweighed geopolitical support factors. Gold ignored the ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East, which intensified after Switzerland officially canceled the planned Friday talks between the US and Iran. With the sharp appreciation of the US dollar and expectations of prolonged high interest rates – increasing the opportunity cost of holding bullion – investors preferred to continue large‑scale selling of the safe‑haven asset.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 4171, 4130, 4031, 3877
• 阻力價位: 4232, 4273, 4323, 4378, 4467

Gold found support around 4130, where buyers showed initiative. The price then surged and consolidated above 4171, which will now act as support. The intraday bias has shifted to buyers, so intraday long trades from 4171 are appropriate, with the goal of testing liquidity above 4232. For sell trades, evaluate the price reaction at 4232 and 4273.

選擇場景:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 4171
• Res: 4232
• Note: Intraday long trades from 4171 are appropriate with a target above 4232. For sell trades, evaluate the reaction at 4232 and 4273.