In the upcoming week, the market focus will be on US trade negotiations and key economic indicators. Highlights include inflation data, retail sales, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, particularly Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Investors will also watch closely for updates on producer prices, industrial production, preliminary inflation expectations from the University of Michigan, building permits, and housing starts.
In the UK, attention will turn to releasing first-quarter GDP figures, unemployment rate, trade balance, and industrial production data. Germany is set to publish the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, while Australia will report on unemployment. Japan is expected to release its preliminary Q1 GDP growth figures, while Mexico’s central bank will hold a monetary policy meeting.
星期一, May 12
Monday is expected to be relatively quiet in terms of market-moving events. However, investors will monitor the release of the updated US Federal Budget Statement, which may exert a modest influence on the US dollar.
當前主要事件:
- US Fed Monthly Budget Statement (m/m) at 21:00 (GMT+3).
星期二, May 13
Tuesday will bring a wave of economic data across multiple regions, with the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) taking center stage. Headline inflation is forecast to ease slightly to 2.4% year-over-year from 2.5%, while the core CPI (excluding food and energy) is expected to hold steady at 2.8% y/y. A softer inflation print may weigh on the US dollar, reinforcing expectations of a dovish policy stance from the Federal Reserve. In the UK, labor market data will be released, with forecasts pointing to a potential cooling. Signs of weakening in employment conditions could increase the probability of a more aggressive rate-cutting path by the Bank of England, posing a downside risk for the British pound.
當前主要事件:
- Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- UK BOE Gov Bailey Speaks (m/m) at 18:00 (GMT+3).
星期三, May 14
Wednesday will focus on releasing Australia’s quarterly Wage Price Index, a key indicator of inflationary pressures. Strong wage growth typically supports the Australian dollar by reinforcing expectations of tighter monetary policy. During the US session, attention will shift to the EIA crude oil inventory report. The oil market has seen heightened volatility recently, driven by unexpected production increases from select OPEC+ members. A drawdown in US inventories could further support oil prices, which posted a gain of over 4% last week.
當前主要事件:
- Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- Australia Wage Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- Canada Annual Budget Release (Tentative).
星期四, May 15
Thursday is set to be eventful, with key releases including Australia’s employment data, GDP figures from the UK and Eurozone, and a monetary policy decision from Mexico’s central bank (Banxico). In Australia, a decline in employment is anticipated, which could increase the probability of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia as early as next week. In the UK, GDP growth is forecast to remain flat at 0.0%, raising concerns about potential economic contraction, which would likely weigh on the pound. Meanwhile, Eurozone GDP is expected to rebound with a 0.4% gain; however, any downside surprise could pressure the euro. In Mexico, economic softness coupled with a firm peso may provide Banxico with scope for another 50-basis-point rate cut. Market pricing implies a terminal rate near 7.25% over the next year. Thursday also brings key US data and policy insights. Retail sales figures will be closely watched for signals on consumer spending strength, a critical component of US economic momentum. Additionally, markets will analyze remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for any clues on the future policy trajectory.
當前主要事件:
- Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 15:40 (GMT+3);
- US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
- US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- Mexico Banxico Interest Rate Decision at 22:00 (GMT+3).
星期五, May 16
On Friday, Japan will release its preliminary Q1 2025 GDP data. According to Bloomberg’s median forecast, the economy is expected to expand by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 3.2% year-on-year, up from 2.9%. A stronger-than-expected print may support the Japanese yen, reinforcing expectations of additional rate hikes by the Bank of Japan later this year. During the US session, attention will turn to the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey, particularly the inflation expectations component. An uptick in inflation expectations could support the US dollar by bolstering the case for a more hawkish Fed position.
當前主要事件:
- Japan GDP (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+3);
- Switzerland Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- Switzerland SNB Chairman Schlegel Speaks at 14:00 (GMT+3);
- US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US Housing Starts (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US Michigan Inflation Expectations (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
本文僅反映個人觀點，不應被視為投資建議和/或要約和/或進行金融交易的持續要求和/或擔保和/或對未來事件的預測。