This week, markets will focus on several key macroeconomic releases that could provide new direction for global expectations amid ongoing uncertainty in trade, monetary policy, and fiscal spending in leading countries. In the US, attention will be focused on the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting, at which rate cuts were paused, as well as on fourth-quarter GDP data and new aggregate income and expenditure figures. Canadian inflation reports and European business activity indices will guide the assessment of economic dynamics in the region, while in Asia, Japan’s GDP and inflation releases, as well as the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, will provide signals on monetary policy and domestic activity. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will also hold a monetary policy meeting. In addition to macroeconomic releases, investors will be watching corporate reports (Walmart, Airbus, BHP, Booking Holdings, and Warner Bros) covering a wide range of industries. On Friday, February 20, markets will also be watching the US Supreme Court, which may cancel some of Trump’s tariffs, potentially causing significant volatility in the markets. China will celebrate the Lunar New Year this week, which is expected to reduce trading activity in local markets.
星期一, February 16
Monday will be a low-volatility day due to US and Canadian holidays, which will limit movement in global markets. During the Asian session, attention will focus on Japan’s quarterly GDP data, which is forecast to grow by 0.4%. This is significantly higher than the previous figure of 0.6% and could support the Japanese stock index (JP225) and the yen (JPY), creating a positive backdrop for Asian markets at the start of the week.
當前主要事件:
- Japan GDP (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
- Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 06:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (LOW)
- Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2). – EUR (LOW)
星期二, February 17
On Tuesday, the markets will focus on several key publications. Australia will release the minutes of the Reserve Bank’s latest meeting, at which the interest rate was raised. The document will allow an assessment of the RBA’s future monetary policy direction and provide clues about potential actions in the coming months. In the UK, labor market data will be released: unemployment is expected to remain at 5.1% y/y, average wage growth is expected to slow from 4.7% to 4.6% y/y, and the number of new unemployment claims is expected to increase. Weak figures could put pressure on the pound, increasing investor caution. During the US session, markets will focus on Canadian inflation data. The median is forecast to remain at 2.5%, while the headline figure is expected to come in at 2.8%. Although these figures are unlikely to change expectations for Bank of Canada (BoC) rates, they could increase volatility in currency pairs involving the Canadian dollar (CAD). It’s a bank holiday in China.
當前主要事件:
- Australia RBA Meeting Minutes at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
- German Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
- UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (HIGH)
- UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (HIGH)
- UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (HIGH)
- Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
- Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (HIGH)
- New Zealand Producer Price Index (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2). – NZD (MED)
星期三, February 18
Active trading with increased volatility is expected on Wednesday across different sessions. During the Asian session, attention will focus on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) interest rate decision. The rate is expected to remain unchanged, so investors will be closely studying the updated macroeconomic forecasts and comments on the trajectory of rates, especially regarding the mid-2027 benchmark as a possible date for the first increase. In Europe, traders will assess UK inflation data: the headline figure is expected to fall from 3.4% to 3.0% y/y, and core inflation from 3.2% to 3.0% y/y. This trend could reinforce expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) at its next meeting and put pressure on the pound sterling (GBP). During the US session, markets will focus on the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting, which will provide insight into the committee’s sentiment and the possible future trajectory of interest rates. It’s a bank holiday in China.
當前主要事件:
- Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2); – JPY (LOW)
- Australia Wage Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
- New Zealand RNBZ Interest Rate Decision at 03:00 (GMT+2); – NZD (HIGH)
- New Zealand RNBZ Monetary Policy Statement at 03:00 (GMT+2); – NZD (HIGH)
- New Zealand RNBZ Press Conference at 04:00 (GMT+2); – NZD (MED)
- UK Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (HIGH)
- US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
- US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (LOW)
- US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+2); – USD (LOW)
- US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+2). – USD (HIGH)
星期四, February 19
Several events on Thursday are worth noting. The first is the Australian labor market data. Conditions are expected to deteriorate, which could put pressure on the Australian dollar (AUD). Second: The Indonesian central bank will hold a meeting. Most consensus participants expect BI to keep its policy rate at 4.75%, but a small minority believes that a cut is possible. Also on Thursday, markets in North America will focus on trade balance data from the US and Canada. The deficit is expected to narrow in both countries, which could support the national currencies – the US dollar and the Canadian dollar. A more balanced trade flow increases the attractiveness of currencies to investors and could strengthen them amid the broader macroeconomic environment. It’s a bank holiday in China.
當前主要事件:
- Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (HIGH)
- Indonesia BI Interest Rate Decision at 09:30 (GMT+2); – IDR (MED)
- Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (MED)
- US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (MED)
- US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
- US Natural Gas Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2); – XNG (HIGH)
- US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 19:00 (GMT+2); – WTI (HIGH)
- New Zealand Trade Balance (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2). – NZD (MED)
星期五, February 20
Friday will bring various Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI statistics for many countries. These data reflect well the dynamics of the domestic sectors of the economy. In Japan, traders will be closely watching the national inflation report, which is expected to show the annual rate declining from 2.4% to 2.0%. Such data could create obstacles for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on the path to normalizing monetary policy and increase the regulator’s caution. Against the backdrop of the new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s expansionary fiscal policy, this could put pressure on the Japanese yen (JPY), as a combination of weak inflation and additional fiscal stimulus could reduce the currency’s appeal to investors. Also on Friday, markets will be watching the US Supreme Court, which may rule on the president’s use of emergency powers to impose broad tariffs. Although this event is not marked on economic calendars, investors perceive it as potentially significant: most participants expect a ruling against the administration. The potential court ruling could put pressure on the dollar index and give momentum to stock indices. It’s a bank holiday in China.
當前主要事件:
- Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
- Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
- Japan Inflation Rate (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (HIGH)
- Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
- Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
- UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
- Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
- UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
- UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
- Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (MED)
- US PCE Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (HIGH)
- US GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (HIGH)
- US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
- US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
- US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)
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