La visión analítica de los principales pares de divisas el 2025.05.08

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indicadores técnicos del par de divisas:

• Prev. Abrir: 1.1365
• Prev. Cerrar: 1.1300
• % cambio. en el último día: -0.57 %

The euro suffered moderate losses on Wednesday amid a stronger dollar ahead of trade talks between the US and China this weekend. Wednesday’s news that Eurozone retail sales declined for the first time in 5 months is also bearish for the euro. The euro’s losses accelerated after the dollar surged after Fed Chairman Powell said the Fed was in no hurry to adjust interest rates.

Recomendaciones de trading

• Niveles de soporte: 1.1297, 1.1246, 1.1157, 1.1088, 1.0960
• Niveles de resistencia: 1.1380, 1.1400, 1.1440, 1.1492, 1.1572

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. Yesterday, the euro failed to reach the resistance level of 1.1380. The price rolled to support at 1.1297, thus confirming the formation of a broadly volatile flat. The last volume spike on the falling impulse showed a bullish reaction. Therefore, the zone below 1.1297 can be considered for buy deals with the target up to the upper boundary. A breakdown and consolidation of the price below 1.1297 will provoke a sell-off to 1.1246.

Escenario alternativo:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.1400 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indicadores técnicos del par de divisas:

• Prev. Abrir: 1.3289
• Prev. Cerrar: 1.3368
• % cambio. en el último día: +0.59 %

Today, the Bank of England will hold a monetary policy meeting. The market believes that it will decide to cut the rate by 0.25% from 4.5% to 4.25% in response to lower inflation and weak economic data. The rate cut is fully discounted in the swap market, meaning there is a 99.9% probability of this scenario. The swap market has almost 95 bps of rate cuts pledged for this year. This means that three-quarter-point rate cuts are fully expected and a fourth with an 80% probability. As recently as late March, not even two rate cuts were considered. Such a scenario could hurt the British pound, especially if the accompanying policy statement confirms the dovish outlook.

Recomendaciones de trading

• Niveles de soporte: 1.3286, 1.3246, 1.3121
• Niveles de resistencia: 1.3352, 1.3402, 1.3434

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD on the hourly time frame is bullish. The British pound sharply strengthened on rumors of a trade deal between the US and the UK. However, this growth was not supported by volumes, which indicates some weakness of buyers. Currently, the price has shown a bearish reaction to the resistance level of 1.3352 and is aiming for a new test of 1.3285. A price move above 1.3352 will open the price path to 1.3404.

Escenario alternativo:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.3202 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indicadores técnicos del par de divisas:

• Prev. Abrir: 142.44
• Prev. Cerrar: 143.81
• % cambio. en el último día: +0.96 %

The minutes of the last BoJ meeting showed that policymakers are willing to keep raising interest rates if economic and inflation expectations are met. However, some representatives of the Bank expressed concern about rising external risks, particularly US trade policy.

Recomendaciones de trading

• Niveles de soporte: 143.00, 142.50, 141.96, 140.18, 139.59
• Niveles de resistencia: 144.05, 144.42, 145.08, 147.13

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bullish. The Japanese yen bounced from the level of 142.50 and broke through the descending trend line. Currently, there are 2 resistance zones in front of the price: 144.05 and 144.42. Most likely, sellers will react here, and the price will correct again. If the price goes above 144.42, it will provoke a sharp rise to 145.08 and higher.

Escenario alternativo:

if the price breaks the support level of 141.96 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indicadores técnicos del par de divisas:

• Prev. Abrir: 3426
• Prev. Cerrar: 3364
• % cambio. en el último día: -1.84 %

Gold rose to $3,390 per ounce on Thursday, reversing losses from the previous session as uncertainty surrounding trade talks between the US and China increased the metal’s appeal as a safe-haven. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve left the benchmark interest rate unchanged as expected and warned of rising risks to inflation and unemployment, reinforcing a cautious stance on future rate changes. Fed Chairman Powell also noted that the Central Bank is not considering a preemptive rate cut in response to the potential economic impact of Trump’s tariffs.

Recomendaciones de trading

• Niveles de soporte: 3355, 3334, 3269, 3223, 3194
• Niveles de resistencia: 3405, 3444, 3500

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Sellers have formed resistance zones above 3405. Currently, the price seeks to test the liquidity below 3355. Here, we can look for buying, provided the reaction is on the buyers’ side. If the price goes below 3334, it is undesirable for buyers, because in such a scenario a sharp sell-off to 3270 may occur.

Escenario alternativo:

if the price breaks and consolidates below the support level of 3223, the downtrend will likely resume.