La visión analítica de los principales pares de divisas el 2025.07.28

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indicadores técnicos del par de divisas:

• Prev. Abrir: 1.1749
• Prev. Cerrar: 1.1740
• % cambio. en el último día: -0.08 %

On Monday, the euro rose above $1.175 following a weekend trade agreement between the US and the EU. The deal, which sets a 15% tariff on most European exports instead of the previously proposed 30%, eased transatlantic trade tensions and increased demand for the euro. Meanwhile, investors are turning their attention to a pivotal week for US monetary policy and key economic data. The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, but markets will be watching closely for signs of a possible rate cut in September.

Recomendaciones de trading

• Niveles de soporte: 1.1734, 1.1714, 1.1657, 1.1615
• Niveles de resistencia: 1.1786, 1.1810, 1.1913

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. Monday opened with a gap up that has now been filled. There are likely resting «sell-side» stop orders below the 1.1734 support level. A retest of this area will likely trigger a bullish reaction, offering buying opportunities. Currently, there are no optimal short entries.

Escenario alternativo:

if the price breaks through the support level of 1.1615 and consolidates below it, the downward trend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indicadores técnicos del par de divisas:

• Prev. Abrir: 1.3510
• Prev. Cerrar: 1.3434
• % cambio. en el último día: -0.56 %

The British pound fell to 1.347, retreating further from its two-week high of 1.358, as recent UK data shifted market focus from inflation to growth concerns. Retail sales rose only 0.9% in June after a sharp 2.8% decline in May (revised lower). Core sales (excluding autos and fuel) grew just 0.6%, missing the 1.2% expectations. Alongside disappointing PMI readings, this supports expectations that the Bank of England will prioritize growth support over inflation control. Markets are increasingly pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut in August, with another expected by year-end.

Recomendaciones de trading

• Niveles de soporte: 1.3421, 1.3402
• Niveles de resistencia: 1.3462, 1.3496, 1.3534, 1.3586, 1.3645

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD is bullish, but intraday momentum is currently biased toward the bears. There is a high probability of testing the 1.3402 priority change level. Buy trades can be considered from 1.3421 or 1.3402, but with confirmation. Buyers need to push the price back above 1.3461. There are currently no optimal entry points for sales.

Escenario alternativo:

if the price breaks through the support level of 1.3402 and consolidates below it, the downward trend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indicadores técnicos del par de divisas:

• Prev. Abrir: 146.97
• Prev. Cerrar: 147.67
• % cambio. en el último día: +0.47 %

On Monday, the Japanese yen weakened to 148 per dollar, marking its third consecutive session of decline, as a wave of trade agreements between the US and key partners reduced demand for safe-haven assets. Over the weekend, the US and the European Union reached an agreement that imposes a 15% tariff on most exports from the EU, which is lower than the originally planned 30%. Last week, the US also concluded agreements with other major partners, including Japan and Indonesia, easing global trade tensions and reducing demand for the yen. On the policy front, the Bank of Japan will announce its monetary policy decision this week. Although the central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged amid uncertainty over US tariffs, it is likely to revise its inflation forecast in its quarterly review.

Recomendaciones de trading

• Niveles de soporte: 147.50, 147.15, 146.35, 145.85, 145.28, 144.18
• Niveles de resistencia: 147.93, 148.81

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bearish, but close to changing. The price has already tested the priority change level twice in the last two trading days. The intraday bias remains with buyers, who need to prevent the price from falling below 147.50. Buy trades can be considered from the EMA lines or from 147.50, but with confirmation. A consolidation of the price below 147.50 will trigger a sell-off.

Escenario alternativo:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 147.93 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indicadores técnicos del par de divisas:

• Prev. Abrir: 3368
• Prev. Cerrar: 3337
• % cambio. en el último día: -0.92 %

Gold hovered around $3330 per ounce on Monday after three consecutive sessions of losses, as the recently announced trade deal between the US and the EU reduced demand for safe-haven assets. The US and EU reached a broad agreement on Sunday that includes 15% tariffs on most European goods, as well as commitments to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in US industry. It replicates key parts of the framework agreement the US reached with Japan last week. Meanwhile, investors are bracing for a busy week that will see a Federal Reserve meeting and a slew of economic data releases. The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged, but investors will be watching closely for any signals of a possible rate cut in September.

Recomendaciones de trading

• Niveles de soporte: 3326, 3309
• Niveles de resistencia: 3351, 3377, 3401, 3439, 3500

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish, but close to changing. Gold is forming a flat accumulation below the resistance zone of 3345–3351. Here we assess the price action. If sellers react to this zone, it opens up opportunities for sales. If the price consolidates above 3351, it opens up opportunities for buy deals up to 3377.

Escenario alternativo:

if the price breaks through the support level of 3326 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.