La visión analítica de los principales pares de divisas el 2025.12.08

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indicadores técnicos del par de divisas:

• Prev. Abrir: 1.1642
• Prev. Cerrar: 1.1643
• % cambio. en el último día: +0.01%

The euro received support following improved data. Eurozone Q3 2025 GDP growth was revised from 0.2% to 0.3%, surpassing the previous quarter’s figure (0.1%). Among the growth leaders were Spain (+0.6%), France (+0.5%), the Netherlands (+0.4%), and Italy (+0.1%), while the German economy remained stagnant. The divergent policies of central banks also support the euro: the ECB has concluded its rate-cutting cycle, while the Fed is expected to continue lowering interest rates.

Recomendaciones de trading

• Niveles de soporte: 1.1635, 1.1607, 1.1590, 1.1555, 1.1503
• Niveles de resistencia: 1.1675, 1.1728

A ranging consolidation pattern is forming on the euro with boundaries between 1.1635–1.1752. On Friday, sellers attempted to consolidate below 1.1650, but buyers showed initiative from 1.1635, thus shifting the lower boundary of the range. Intraday, we should consider sales from 1.1672–1.1675 with a target of 1.1635. Price consolidation above 1.1675 will open the path for the price to 1.1728.

Escenario alternativo:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 1.1635
• Res: 1.1675
• Note: Considering sales from 1.1675, but with confirmation. Price consolidation above 1.1675 will open the path for the price to 1.1728.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indicadores técnicos del par de divisas:

• Prev. Abrir: 1.3324
• Prev. Cerrar: 1.3332
• % cambio. en el último día: +0.06 %

The yield on 10-year UK government bonds stabilized around 4.45% after an early December surge, as Rachel Reeves’ budget partially relieved pressure on the debt market. Investors are also preparing for rate cuts in the UK and the US later this month, which supports demand for bonds. The Bank of England is expected to cut the rate by 25 basis points, although the decision may be contentious due to «hawk» concerns about inflation. In the US, markets have already priced in the Fed’s third rate cut this week and at least two more in 2026.

Recomendaciones de trading

• Niveles de soporte: 1.3321, 1.3268, 1.3156, 1.3111, 1.3080
• Niveles de resistencia: 1.3372

The situation for the British pound has not significantly changed compared to Friday. The price is trading in a wide range with boundaries between 1.3321–1.3365. For buy deals, it is ideal to wait for initiative from 1.3321. For sales, 1.3321 can be considered, but only after price consolidation below this level.

Escenario alternativo:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 1.3321
• Res: 1.3372
• Note: Considering buying from 1.3321, but with confirmation. Price consolidation below may trigger a sell-off to 1.3268.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indicadores técnicos del par de divisas:

• Prev. Abrir: 155.05
• Prev. Cerrar: 155.33
• % cambio. en el último día: +0.18 %

The Japanese yen strengthened above 155 per dollar, hitting a three-week high amid expectations of a potential Bank of Japan rate hike as early as next week following «hawkish» signals from the regulator. Support was also provided by speculation that the government would encourage currency strengthening to mitigate import price pressure on inflation. However, weak macro data, a drop in real wages for the tenth consecutive month, and a deeper contraction in Q3 GDP, complicate the expectations for the central bank’s next steps.

Recomendaciones de trading

• Niveles de soporte: 154.91, 154.41, 154.17
• Niveles de resistencia: 155.50, 156.09, 156.40, 157.11, 157.87

The Japanese currency fell to 154.41, where buyers showed activity. The price is currently in a correction and is looking to test the liquidity above 155.50. Intraday, the support level 154.91 can be considered for buy deals, but with confirmation. For sales, 155.50 is being considered, but also contingent on sellers’ initiative.

Escenario alternativo:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 154.91
• Res: 155.50
• Note: Considering buy trades from 154.91, but with confirmation. For sales, it is best to wait for a correction to 155.50.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indicadores técnicos del par de divisas:

• Prev. Abrir: 4210
• Prev. Cerrar: 4202
• % cambio. en el último día: -0.19%

On Friday, gold traded near $4,210 per ounce, close to late October highs. The metal was supported by US data: the September PCE Index showed inflation slowing, with the Core Index dropping to 2.8%, and the University of Michigan survey indicating a decline in inflation expectations. Furthermore, the unexpected cut of 32,000 private sector jobs (ADP) and 71,321 layoffs (Challenger) reinforced market confidence in an imminent Fed rate cut, increasing gold’s attractiveness.

Recomendaciones de trading

• Niveles de soporte: 4194, 4145, 4108, 4031, 4007, 3966
• Niveles de resistencia: 4255, 4379

Gold continues to trade in a wide range. On Friday, the price reached the resistance level of 4255, where sellers showed initiative. The price is now right in the middle of the consolidation, which complicates finding good entry points. Ideally, we should wait for a test of the support level 4194-4200 and look for buy trades in case of initiative. Sales should only be considered after an impulsive price consolidation below 4194.

Escenario alternativo:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 4194
• Res: 4255
• Note: Looking for buy deals from 4194, but with confirmation. Price consolidation below may trigger a sell-off to 4163.