La visión analítica de los principales pares de divisas el 2026.03.06

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indicadores técnicos del par de divisas:

• Prev. Abrir: 1.1631
• Prev. Cerrar: 1.1608
• % cambio. en el último día: -0.19%

Minutes from the European Central Bank’s February meeting initially showed the regulator’s confidence in reaching the inflation target of below 2%. Officials were satisfied with the euro’s stability and the maintenance of current interest rates, believing the region’s macroeconomic outlook remained resilient. However, the recent 20% spike in oil prices, driven by the Middle East conflict, has abruptly reintroduced volatility risks, forcing markets to price in a potential monetary tightening by year-end. Europe’s high dependence on energy imports poses a direct threat of short-term inflation acceleration, casting doubt on previous optimistic predictions.

Recomendaciones de trading

• Niveles de soporte: 1.1575, 1.1528
• Niveles de resistencia: 1.1654, 1.1673, 1.1707, 1.1724

The euro declined yesterday to the 1.1575 support level, where buyers showed initial activity. The intraday bias is currently leaning toward a recovery, creating opportunities for local buys. Under these conditions, buy trades can be considered from 1.1575 with a target of 1.1654. Sells become appropriate only if 1.1575 is broken with impulse, which would open the path to the weekly low of 1.1528.

Escenario alternativo:

• Trend: Down
• Sup: 1.1575
• Res: 1.1654
• Note: Focus on intraday buys from 1.1575. An impulse breakout below this level signals a drop to 1.1528.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indicadores técnicos del par de divisas:

• Prev. Abrir: 1.3370
• Prev. Cerrar: 1.3356
• % cambio. en el último día: -0.10%

The British pound consolidated near December lows at $1.335 as investors weighed the shock impact of the Middle East escalation. The sharp increase in military confrontation, marked by incidents involving the Iranian fleet and missile interceptions in NATO-monitored zones, has triggered a surge in inflation expectations. Simultaneously, the Office for Budget Responsibility adjusted its macro outlook, lowering the 2026 GDP growth anticipation to 1.1% due to structural hurdles. Long-term support for sterling may come from projections of reduced government borrowing and stabilizing consumer prices, providing a foundation for recovery after the current crisis peaks.

Recomendaciones de trading

• Niveles de soporte: 1.3306, 1.3292
• Niveles de resistencia: 1.3404, 1.3432, 1.3454, 1.3501

The pound is forming a flat accumulation between 1.3306 and 1.3404. Yesterday, the price tested the lower boundary and, after a false breakout, is now moving to redistribute liquidity at the upper boundary. Intraday, buys from the EMA lines toward the 1.3404 resistance are viable. If 1.3404 is broken with an impulse, expect further growth to 1.3432.

Escenario alternativo:

• Trend: Down
• Sup: 1.3306
• Res: 1.3404
• Note: Look for intraday buys from EMA lines targeting 1.3404. An impulse breakout of 1.3404 leads to 1.3432.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indicadores técnicos del par de divisas:

• Prev. Abrir: 157.02
• Prev. Cerrar: 157.58
• % cambio. en el último día: +0.35%

The Japanese yen is closing its third week of decline, trading around 157.5 per dollar as demand for the USD as a primary safe haven remains high. Pressure on the yen is intensifying amid the Middle East escalation, with prolonged hostilities and tanker attacks in the Persian Gulf spiking oil prices. Given Japan’s total reliance on hydrocarbon imports, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda warned of serious economic risks, effectively freezing expectations for further rate hikes. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama confirmed Tokyo’s readiness for currency interventions, emphasizing a state of «extreme vigilance.»

Recomendaciones de trading

• Niveles de soporte: 157.38, 156.80, 156.17
• Niveles de resistencia: 157.96, 158.12

After capturing the liquidity pool below 156.79, the pair resumed its climb and is now testing liquidity above 157.96. Monitor the price reaction here. Seller activity in the 157.96-158.12 zone could lead to a yen recovery and a deeper correction. If such an initiative appears, intraday sells toward 157.38 are possible. There are currently no optimal entry points for buys.

Escenario alternativo:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 157.38
• Res: 157.96
• Note: Seek intraday sells from the 157.96-158.12 supply zone, but only with confirmation.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indicadores técnicos del par de divisas:

• Prev. Abrir: 5150
• Prev. Cerrar: 5083
• % cambio. en el último día: -1.38%

Gold prices corrected to $5,083 per ounce, losing morning gains due to the strengthening US dollar and revised interest rate expectations. Despite the unprecedented escalation, including massive Israeli strikes on Iranian infrastructure, safe-haven demand was offset by the Fed’s hawkish stance. Iranian officials’ denial of ceasefire rumors has cemented the geopolitical deadlock. Gold is currently struggling to compete with the rising yields of dollar-denominated assets, limiting its «quiet harbor» potential despite the threat of global supply chain collapses.

Recomendaciones de trading

• Niveles de soporte: 5052, 5000
• Niveles de resistencia: 5144, 5206, 5226, 5334

Sellers are gradually seizing intraday control. Yesterday’s impulse break below the accumulation zone is now being tested from the underside. A seller reaction to liquidity above 5144 could trigger a new sell-off. A breakout above 5144 would target the 5206-5226 supply zone. Priority remains with sells from 5144 or the 5206-5226 zone, provided there is confirmation.

Escenario alternativo:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 5052
• Res: 5144
• Note: Priority is on sell trades from 5144 or the 5206–5226 zone with confirmation. No optimal buy setups are currently visible.