La visión analítica de los principales pares de divisas el 2026.03.23

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indicadores técnicos del par de divisas:

• Prev. Abrir: 1.1588
• Prev. Cerrar: 1.1558
• % cambio. en el último día: -0.26%

On Friday, the euro fell to 1.156 dollars as investors preferred the safety of the US currency amid a growing energy crisis. The European Central Bank, which kept rates at 2% last Thursday, faced the need for a radical revision of its predictions. The regulator officially raised its inflation expectations for 2026 while lowering its economic growth expectations, which directly points to stagflation risks in the Eurozone. Money markets reacted instantly: traders now fully price in two rate hikes this year, and the probability of a third step is considered high. Statements from key ECB officials added fuel to the fire. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel openly allowed the possibility of a rate hike at the April 30 meeting if inflation expectations continue to rise. He was supported by François Villeroy de Galhau, who emphasized that the bank is ready to act decisively to protect price stability.

Recomendaciones de trading

• Niveles de soporte: 1.1530, 1.1491
• Niveles de resistencia: 1.1581, 1.1613, 1.1666, 1.1707

The European currency declined to the support level of 1.1530, where it is important to assess price action. A breakout of this level will lead to further decline toward 1.1490. The intraday bias remains with sellers, so the probability of this scenario is high. Long positions should be considered from 1.1530 or 1.1490, but only with confirmation in the form of buyer initiative.

Escenario alternativo:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1530
• Res: 1.1581
• Note: Long positions may be considered from 1.1530 or 1.1490, but only with confirmation from buyers. A breakout of 1.1530 will open the way to 1.1490.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indicadores técnicos del par de divisas:

• Prev. Abrir: 1.3430
• Prev. Cerrar: 1.3340
• % cambio. en el último día: -0.67%

By the end of the trading week on March 20, 2026, the British pound once again fell below 1.34 dollars, coming under crossfire from macroeconomic factors. The main driver of the decline was investor flight into the safe‑haven US dollar amid an explosive rise in brent oil and European gas prices. The geopolitical shock in the Persian Gulf not only pushed energy prices to multi‑year highs but also radically changed monetary expectations: the market now prices in three Bank of England rate hikes by the end of 2026. The situation in the UK is further complicated by fiscal deficit data. In February 2026, government borrowing jumped to 14.3 billion pounds, significantly exceeding the prognosis of 8.5 billion and becoming the second‑worst February result on record (after pandemic‑era 2021). Such a sharp increase in debt burden amid high interest rates and an energy crisis limits the government’s ability to support households, increasing pressure on the pound and raising the risk of deep stagflation in the United Kingdom.

Recomendaciones de trading

• Niveles de soporte: 1.3252, 1.3214
• Niveles de resistencia: 1.3300, 1.3351, 1.3401, 1.3457, 1.3508, 1.3556

The British pound fell sharply on Friday and continued to decline at Monday’s open. The price impulsively consolidated below the support level of 1.3300, and the path toward 1.3252 is now open. Under such market conditions, intraday trades should focus on selling from 1.3300 or from EMA lines. For buying, we evaluate the price reaction at 1.3252.

Escenario alternativo:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3252
• Res: 1.3300
• Note: Sell trades may be considered from 1.3300 or from EMA lines. For buying, evaluate the reaction at 1.3252.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indicadores técnicos del par de divisas:

• Prev. Abrir: 157.77
• Prev. Cerrar: 159.23
• % cambio. en el último día: +0.92%

On Monday, the Japanese yen again entered a zone of critical risk, weakening to 159.5 per dollar. The currency approached the psychological barrier of 160 yen, which has historically triggered large‑scale currency interventions by Japan’s Ministry of Finance. The situation became so tense that the head of the currency department, Atsushi Mimura, issued a direct warning that the government is ready to take “all necessary measures” to stabilize the exchange rate. He emphasized that the prolonged war in the Persian Gulf and expensive raw materials have already begun to negatively affect the standard of living in Japan through rising import costs. Despite the Bank of Japan’s attempt last week to support the national currency with hawkish rhetoric, the yen failed to hold its gains. Investors remain skeptical about the regulator’s ability to raise rates quickly amid uncertainty caused by the conflict with Iran.

Recomendaciones de trading

• Niveles de soporte: 158.91, 158.55, 159.28, 157.87, 157.32
• Niveles de resistencia: 159.68, 160.21

After testing liquidity below 157.87, the yen returned to the resistance level of 159.68 in just one trading day. It is important to assess price reaction here: if sellers show initiative intraday, the price will likely correct to 158.91; but if buyers impulsively break through 159.69, the road to 160.21 will open – a level where currency intervention is highly likely.

Escenario alternativo:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 158.91
• Res: 159.68
• Note: Sell trades should be considered from 159.68, but with confirmation. A breakout of 159.68 on impulse will open the way to 160.21.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indicadores técnicos del par de divisas:

• Prev. Abrir: 4657
• Prev. Cerrar: 4498
• % cambio. en el último día: -3.53%

Gold continued its steep dive, falling below the psychological mark of 4,400 dollars per ounce. The fourth consecutive week of decline confirms an abnormal dynamic: the precious metal has lost its status as a safe haven amid global conflict. The main reason for the collapse was the forced strategy of major economies to urgently replenish liquidity. To compensate for enormous war‑related expenses and soften the impact of the energy shock, government regulators began large‑scale sales of gold reserves, flooding the market with supply amid falling demand. The geopolitical situation in the Persian Gulf has reached a boiling point. Donald Trump’s ultimatum threatening strikes on Iranian power plants and Tehran’s counter‑threats to attack US and Israeli facilities in case of aggression create conditions in which inflation ceases to be a temporary factor.

Recomendaciones de trading

• Niveles de soporte: 4169, 4027
• Niveles de resistencia: 4457, 4615

Liquidity in gold is rapidly declining, increasing volatility. The price is covering a large range in short periods. The intraday bias is strictly bearish, and the price is significantly deviated from the average lines. The price has now reached the support level of 4169, but buyer reaction here is weak – there is a high probability of continued decline toward 4027. Intraday, we look only for sell trades on pullbacks. There are no optimal entry points for buying at the moment.

Escenario alternativo:

• Trend: Down
• Sup: 4169
• Res: 4457
• Note: Intraday, look only for sell trades on pullbacks. There are no optimal buying opportunities now.