La visión analítica de los principales pares de divisas el 2026.04.17

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indicadores técnicos del par de divisas:

• Prev. Abrir: 1.1800
• Prev. Cerrar: 1.1780
• % cambio. en el último día: -0.17%

On Thursday, the euro retreated from its one‑and‑a‑half‑month high. The main factor putting pressure on the European currency was the strengthening of the US dollar, triggered by US economic data that exceeded analysts’ expectations. Additional pressure on the euro came from the publication of the minutes of the ECB’s March meeting. The document confirmed the regulator’s intention to keep interest rates unchanged in the near term. Governing Council members emphasized that the ongoing military conflict creates significant uncertainty and acts as a negative supply‑side shock, simultaneously provoking inflation and suppressing overall economic activity in the region. Industrial production data for the Eurozone for February were positive, showing growth of 0.4%, exceeding market predictions. However, this figure was not enough to outweigh the ECB’s overall cautious stance.

Recomendaciones de trading

• Niveles de soporte: 1.1775, 1.1722, 1.1643, 1.1605
• Niveles de resistencia: 1.1823, 1.1849, 1.1894

The euro corrected to the support level of 1.1775, but buyer reaction here is weak. Today, the focus is on the zone near this level: if buyers show initiative and the price consolidates above the EMA lines, intraday long trades may be considered with a target of 1.1823. A breakout and consolidation below 1.1775 will trigger a sell‑off toward 1.1721.

Escenario alternativo:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 1.1775
• Res: 1.1823
• Note: Long trades are considered from 1.1775 with confirmation. A breakout and consolidation below 1.1775 will trigger a sell‑off toward 1.1721.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indicadores técnicos del par de divisas:

• Prev. Abrir: 1.3560
• Prev. Cerrar: 1.3525
• % cambio. en el último día: -0.26%

The rhetoric of the Bank of England leadership remains cautious. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stressed that it is too early to make final assessments of the economic consequences of the war, classifying the situation as a major energy shock. BoE policymaker Megan Greene approved the market’s move to lower expectations for rate hikes, which deprived the pound of part of its recent yield premium. Despite the current decline, the pound remains near an eight‑week high, having gained about 2.6% since early April. This is supported by strong fundamental indicators recorded before the conflict – in particular, GDP growth of 0.5% in February. Nevertheless, analysts warn that the upcoming April 30 meeting will be marked by high uncertainty.

Recomendaciones de trading

• Niveles de soporte: 1.3508, 1.3478, 1.3380, 1.3300, 1.3252
• Niveles de resistencia: 1.3590, 1.3631

The British pound, like the euro, is correcting. But the correction is slow, without sharp downward impulses, indicating that the medium‑term bias remains bullish. Today, we evaluate price reaction at support levels 1.3508 or 1.3478: long trades may be considered here, but only after confirmation in the form of buyer reaction. There are no optimal entry points for selling at the moment.

Escenario alternativo:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 1.3508
• Res: 1.3590
• Note: Long trades are considered from support levels 1.3508 or 1.3478 with confirmation. There are no optimal selling points at the moment.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indicadores técnicos del par de divisas:

• Prev. Abrir: 158.98
• Prev. Cerrar: 159.12
• % cambio. en el último día: +0.09%

On Friday, the Japanese yen weakened, rising above 159 per dollar and almost erasing the gains of its recent strengthening. The main reason for pressure on the currency was the cautious stance of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. In his latest comments, he refrained from giving the market clear guidance on interest rates ahead of the April meeting, citing a “complex balance” between the need to curb inflation and risks to economic growth. Unlike previous rate‑hike cycles, when Ueda prepared the ground for decisive action in advance, this time his rhetoric was more restrained. He described current conditions as “highly accommodative,” pointing to the persistence of negative real interest rates. Investors who expected a signal of immediate tightening were disappointed by the lack of specifics, which triggered a sell‑off in the yen. It is expected that at the end‑April meeting, the Bank of Japan will officially raise its inflation expectation, acknowledging the impact of high oil prices due to the Middle East conflict.

Recomendaciones de trading

• Niveles de soporte: 159.15, 158.02
• Niveles de resistencia: 159.46, 159.97, 160.46

Technically, the price has reached the resistance level of 159.46, above which liquidity is located. If sellers react here, short trades may be considered with a target at the root of the bullish impulse at 159.15. An impulsive consolidation above 159.46 will open the way toward 159.85.

Escenario alternativo:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 159.15
• Res: 159.46
• Note: Short trades are appropriate from the resistance level of 159.46 with confirmation. Long trades are appropriate from the support level of 159.15 or after a breakout of 159.46.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indicadores técnicos del par de divisas:

• Prev. Abrir: 4796
• Prev. Cerrar: 4790
• % cambio. en el último día: -0.12%

On Thursday, the precious‑metals market showed high volatility: gold and silver lost their morning gains and moved into decline. The main pressure factor was the strengthening of the dollar and rising US Treasury yields. Hawkish comments from New York Fed President John Williams, who advocated maintaining tight monetary policy, added fuel to the fire. An additional negative factor was a 3% jump in oil prices, which increases inflation risks and forces global central banks to keep interest rates high, reducing the appeal of non‑yielding assets. The technical picture is overshadowed by the large‑scale liquidation of positions by major funds. Long positions in gold and silver ETFs recently fell to multi‑month lows, indicating an outflow of speculative capital after last year’s peak levels. Nevertheless, gold receives fundamental support from steady central‑bank demand. In particular, the People’s Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the seventeenth consecutive month, bringing them to 74.38 million troy ounces in March.

Recomendaciones de trading

• Niveles de soporte: 4789, 4700, 4608
• Niveles de resistencia: 4857, 4900, 4963

The technical picture has changed little compared to yesterday, except that volatility has noticeably decreased in recent days. Today, the focus is on the liquidity zone below 4789; it is crucial for buyers to defend this level. Otherwise, an impulsive consolidation below it may trigger a sharp sell‑off down to 4750 or even 4700.

Escenario alternativo:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 4789
• Res: 4857
• Note: For long trades, evaluate price reaction at 4789 with a target toward 4857 and higher. Consolidation below 4789 may lead to a sharp sell‑off toward 4750 or even 4700.