The main geopolitical event of the week will be the resumption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as part of the US-Iran agreement to lift the naval blockade. Investors will also focus on a large block of macroeconomic data. In the United States, the key releases will include personal income and spending data, the core PCE price index (the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge), durable goods orders, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, and regional Federal Reserve surveys. In parallel, markets will assess global economic activity using fresh S&P PMI business activity indices, to be published for the United States, the eurozone, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Japan, and Australia. Additionally, in the European sector, investors will pay attention to key German leading indicators – the GfK consumer climate index and the Ifo business climate index- to help evaluate the recovery prospects of Europe’s largest economy.
Lunes, June 22
The Asian session opens with the People’s Bank of China establishing its one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR). The one-year benchmark, which dictates the pricing for the majority of corporate and household loans across the mainland, has been held steady at a record-low 3.00%. Concurrently, the five-year rate – the primary anchor for residential mortgages – sits firmly at 3.50%. Given Beijing’s recent pivot toward structural currency stabilization and targeted liquidity facilities rather than broad-based benchmark cuts, the market fully expects a hold at current levels. The primary market impact will manifest through offshore Yuan (CNH) and regional equity indices such as the Hang Seng (HK50). The true volatility epicenter of the day hits during the North American open with the release of Canada’s Inflation Rate. Headline consumer price growth recently accelerated to 2.8% year-over-year, driven by a massive surge in the energy basket as Middle East logistics friction pushed domestic pump prices higher. However, the Bank of Canada’s preferred underlying core metrics – the trimmed-mean and median CPI – defied this energy spike, dropping to five-year lows of 2.0% and 2.1%.
Principales eventos del día:
- China Loan Prime Rate at 04:00 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (HIGH)
- Canada Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – CAD (HIGH)
- Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 15:30 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
Martes, June 23
Tuesday’s session delivers a relentless, sequential wave of flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) updates spanning every major developed economic bloc. This data serves as the ultimate real-time health check for the global industry and services. Because PMIs are forward-looking sentiment indicators, a widespread miss across these regions will rapidly ignite global recession fears. At the same time, an upside expansion will validate the higher-for-longer interest rate stances maintained by core central banks. In virtually all countries (except the United States), the indices are expected to rise above 50, which is generally a positive factor for the strengthening of the national currency.
Principales eventos del día:
- Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3) – AUD (MED)
- Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3) – AUD (MED)
- Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
- Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
- Singapore Inflation Rate (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3) – SGD (MED)
- German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
- German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
- Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
- UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED)
- UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED)
- US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
- US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
Miércoles, June 24
The headlines kick off in the early Asian hours with the release of Australia’s monthly Consumer Price Index indicator. Following an aggressive inflation spike earlier in the spring that peaked at 4.6%, headline inflation recently moderated to 4.2%, aided by government fuel excise interventions. However, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s primary focus remains locked on the trimmed-mean CPI, which has stubbornly drifted upward toward 3.4%, signaling that underlying services and domestic housing utilities remain highly restrictive. If the consumer price index experiences an unexpected month-on-month rebound, it will prove that the core domestic engine is failing to cool. This will immediately force swap markets to price in an August or autumn RBA interest rate hike toward 4.60%, triggering a sharp leg higher for the AUD. Moving into the European session, the spotlight shifts to the forward-looking German Ifo Business Climate Index. Sustained energy costs and cooling demand in export markets have weighed on the Eurozone’s manufacturing core. If the Ifo index drops significantly below consensus, it will emphasize the structural stagnation plaguing the region’s largest economy, effectively capping any intraday recovery for the euro (EUR).
Principales eventos del día:
- Australia Inflation Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – AUD (HIGH)
- German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
- US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (LOW)
- US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – WTI (HIGH)
Jueves, June 25
On Thursday, the Asian session navigates critical regional volatility via the Australian Unemployment Rate. Following a long string of sticky trimmed-mean inflation prints, any unexpected tightening of the domestic jobs market back toward 4.0% will increase the pressure on the RBA to consider an autumn rate hike. This will give the Australian dollar (AUD) an immediate fundamental lift in early trading. The afternoon open introduces a massive foundational trigger for Gold (XAU/USD), US equity indices, and the broad US dollar index (DXY) with the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Headline PCE has been climbing uncomfortably over the past quarter, tracking near a 3.8% annual rate, driven by sticky shipping premiums and resilient domestic services. The market consensus looks for a month-on-month core print of around 0.2% to 0.3%. If the core monthly reading spikes past 0.3%, it will confirm that upstream industrial inputs are continuing to push retail costs higher. This outcome will force bond traders to eliminate any remaining bets on an autumn rate cut, driving 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields aggressively upward and inducing rapid capital liquidation across broad technology equities and Gold. In addition, traders should keep an eye on the Bank of Mexico’s (Banxico) interest rate meeting on Thursday. The consensus is that the rate will remain at 6.50%. However, the real factor that could influence the market depends on the accompanying forecasts. If the rate statement clearly signals a “hawkish” stance, the high-yielding peso will experience a powerful wave of structural capital inflows, triggering a sharp technical decline in the USD/MXN exchange rate.
Principales eventos del día:
- Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – AUD (MED)
- German GfK Consumer Climate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
- US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (HIGH)
- US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
- US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
- US Final GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
- US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – XAG (HIGH)
- Mexico Interest Rate Decision at 22:00 (GMT+3) – MXN (HIGH)
Viernes, June 26
On Friday, data on Tokyo’s core consumer price index will be released at the start of the Asian trading session. Since the data for the capital precedes the broader national inflation report by several weeks, it serves as a key leading indicator for the Japanese yen (JPY) and the Nikkei 225 Index (JP225). If the Tokyo print experiences an accelerated rebound back toward 1.7% or higher, it will signal that, despite global supply cushions, domestic wage hikes are successfully supporting structural price gains. This will keep the mechanical pressure firmly on the Bank of Japan to reinforce its rate normalization path, offering the yen a late-week layer of technical support across major currency crosses. In the afternoon, attention will shift to the final data on the University of Michigan’s inflation expectations index. Unlike institutional indicators such as the PCE, this index measures the inflation expectations of ordinary consumers over the next 12 to 60 months. Preliminary estimates released earlier this month showed that short-term consumer expectations edged down slightly to 4.6% from a multi-month high of 4.8%.
In comparison, long-term five-year expectations fell again to 3.4%. If the final print confirms the preliminary cooling trend, it will suggest that consumers are experiencing marginal relief from fluctuating retail gasoline prices. This would allow global equity indices
Principales eventos del día:
- Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
- US Michigan Inflation Expectations (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
Este artículo refleja una opinión personal y no debe interpretarse como un consejo de inversión, y/o una oferta, y/o una solicitud persistente para realizar transacciones financieras, y/o una garantía, y/o una previsión de eventos futuros.