The US Natural Gas Prices Drop to 4-Month Low. Swiss Franc Approaches Record Levels

On Friday, the US stock market closed mixed. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) ticked up by 0.10% (-1.09% for the week). The S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.05% (-1.17% for the week). The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.22% lower (-1.77% for the week). Major indicators ended the week down, as even a softer-than-expected January inflation report failed to restore sustained risk appetite amid ongoing volatility in the AI sector. The slowdown in both headline and core inflation supported expectations of several Fed rate cuts this year, but it proved insufficient to spark a confident market rally.

On Friday, Bitcoin (BTC) dropped toward $66,000, surrendering most of its recent gains amid renewed pressure on the crypto market. The decline was triggered by warnings from Standard Chartered about further weakening and by Coinbase’s poor earnings, which recorded a quarterly loss of $667 million alongside a revenue drop of over 20%. Since its October peak above $126,000, Bitcoin has decreased by more than 45%, and repeated failed recovery attempts point to weakening speculative demand.

European equity markets mostly rose on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) grew by 0.25% (+0.22% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.35% (+0.20% for the week), the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 1.25% (-2.13% for the week), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.42% (+0.74% for the week). The Eurozone economy grew by 0.3% in Q4 2025, confirming preliminary estimates and maintaining the pace of the previous quarter. Despite the impact of US trade tariffs on European imports, the region demonstrated resilience amid slowing inflation and a gradual rate cut cycle. Annually, GDP increased by 1.3% compared to 1.4% in the previous quarter. Among the major economies, Spain showed the best performance with 0.8% growth driven by steady consumption and investment. The Netherlands added 0.5% due to exports, while Germany and Italy grew by 0.3%, and France by 0.2%. A slowdown is expected ahead: forecasts from the European Commission and the European Central Bank (ECB) suggest growth of around 1.2% in 2026, followed by a moderate acceleration to 1.4% in 2027 amid ongoing geopolitical and trade uncertainty.

The Swiss franc (CHF) traded near 0.77 per US dollar, approaching record levels, fueled by continued demand for safe-haven assets and expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will maintain a stable policy. Domestically, January inflation remained at 0.1%, matching the lower bound of the SNB’s 0-2% target range. SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel stated a readiness to tolerate short-term negative inflation while keeping the focus on medium-term price stability.
On Friday, silver (XAG) rose more than 3% to above $77.5 per ounce, partially recovering from the previous day’s sharp drop, though it remained on track for its third consecutive weekly decline. The prior sell-off was linked to broad asset liquidation, as investors sold metals alongside stocks and cryptocurrencies to cover losses and build liquidity. Data showed US inflation slowing to 2.4% and the core figure to 2.5%, strengthening expectations for Fed rate cuts later this year.

The US natural gas (XNG) prices fell to $3.02 per MMBtu, hitting a four-month low amid warming forecasts that dampened heating demand expectations. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, above-normal temperatures are expected in the central and southern states over the next two weeks. Additional volatility was fueled by low liquidity due to a US holiday, making price movements more abrupt. Despite short-term pressure, fundamental factors remain relatively strong: gas inventories are approximately 130 billion cubic feet below the five-year average, and LNG exports remain at record levels. Further dynamics will depend on updated weather forecasts and fresh inventory data.

Asian markets traded with mixed dynamics last week. For the trading week, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) soared by 6.56%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.53%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) dropped 1.54%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive 5-day result of 1.21%. The Australian index posted its strongest weekly gain since late April 2025, driven by a successful corporate earnings season. The banking sector was the primary driver of the rise. Among the leaders, Westpac shares reached record highs after reporting strong quarterly profits. Commonwealth Bank also reported record half-year profits, and ANZ Group exceeded quarterly result forecasts.

On Friday, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) stabilized near $0.603, maintaining moderate weekly gains as investor attention shifted to the upcoming Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting. The regulator is expected to leave the key rate unchanged this week, so primary interest will focus on updated macroeconomic forecasts and the interest rate trajectory – specifically, whether the bank confirms mid-2027 as the possible timeframe for the first hike. Mixed labor market data released last week strengthened the case for a near-term pause. However, inflation remains above the target level, and economic activity shows signs of strengthening, supporting expectations of policy tightening later this year. Markets currently price in a roughly 75% probability of a September rate hike.