بررسی اجمالی تحلیلی جفت ارزهای اصلی در 2025.05.12

The EUR/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.1223
• قبلی بستن: 1.1247
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.21 %

Although the dollar has reached 3-4-week highs against most G10 currencies, the lack of follow-through leaves it within the broader consolidated ranges that have dominated. Central banks such as the European Central Bank, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, Bank of Canada, and Sweden’s Riksbank are expected to cut rates at least once before the Fed cuts rates. In the short term, this opens the door for the US dollar to rise against these currencies on the expected interest rate differential.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.1246, 1.1157, 1.1088, 1.0960
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.1297, 1.1380, 1.1400, 1.1440, 1.1492, 1.1572

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The euro fell below 1.1297 and tested this resistance level from the other side, confirming the sellers’ intentions to reduce the price to 1.1147. For selling, we can consider the EMA lines or the downtrend line. For buying, there is no optimal entry point right now.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.1378 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.3247
• قبلی بستن: 1.3305
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.44 %

Currency strategists maintain a cautiously constructive outlook on sterling, expecting GBP/USD at 1.32 and EUR/USD at 0.87 in the 12-month outlook. However, the bank believes the British pound will not regain its former leadership among G10 currencies as political risks and the relative strength of the euro remain. Last week, sterling received short-term support from key trade agreements signed with India and the US. The UK-India agreement is expected to boost the economy by £4.8 billion by 2040.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.3234, 1.3205, 1.3121
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.3251, 1.3352, 1.3402, 1.3434

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD on the hourly time frame is bearish. The British pound looks stronger than the euro, but the bias is still for sellers. For sell trades, you can use the EMA lines or the downtrend line. There are no optimal entry points for buying right now.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.3344 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 145.86
• قبلی بستن: 145.36
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.34 %

On Monday, the Japanese yen slid to 146 per USD, setting a new one-month low, as optimism over US-China trade talks dampened demand for safe-haven assets. In addition, weak economic data put pressure on the yen. Japan’s Service Sector Business Activity Index fell to 42.6 in April 2025 from 45.1 in the previous month, the lowest reading since February 2022 and the fourth consecutive month of decline. In addition, the Corporate Trends Index declined, affecting the non-manufacturing sector. Employment also declined during the period. Meanwhile, the Economic Outlook Index fell to 42.7 in April, the lowest in four years, from 45.2 in March, reflecting growing concerns about the impact of US trade policy and continued cost pressures.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 145.08, 144.42, 144.05, 142.90
• سطوح مقاومت: 147.08

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bullish. The Japanese yen continues to depreciate against the US dollar. The price has already passed over 145, and there are no prerequisites for a reversal yet. EMA lines or uptrend lines should be considered for buying. The profit target is the resistance level at 147.07. There are no optimal entry points for selling now.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks the support level of 142.90 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 3308
• قبلی بستن: 3326
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.54 %

Gold fell more than 1% to $3260 on Monday, hitting a one-week low, as optimism over trade talks between the US and China reduced demand for safe-haven assets. Officials from both countries wrapped up talks over the weekend, signaling a positive outcome. On the geopolitical front, the India-Pakistan ceasefire remained in place overnight and Sunday, despite mutual accusations of violations soon after the agreement.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 3269, 3222, 3194
• سطوح مقاومت: 3320, 3361, 3405, 3444, 3500

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold opened with a gap down on Monday at the support level of 3269. Buyers took the initiative here. Considering the MACD divergence, we should expect the price to rise to 3320. A breakdown and consolidation of the price below 3269 will provoke a sell-off to the level of 3223.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks and consolidates below the support level of 3223, the downtrend will likely resume.