بررسی اجمالی تحلیلی جفت ارزهای اصلی در 2025.06.10

The EUR/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.1390
• قبلی بستن: 1.1423
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.29 %

The euro rose above $1.14, approaching the six-week high of $1.149 reached on June 5, as investors monitored the progress of trade talks between the US and China and awaited speeches by European Central Bank officials to gain insight into the ECB’s policy outlook. On the monetary front, the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week, bringing borrowing costs to their lowest level since November 2022, and lowered its inflation expectations for 2025 and 2026. However, contrary to previous expectations, the bank also signaled that its current easing cycle may be nearing its end.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.1386, 1.1356, 1.1312, 1.1296, 1.1269, 1.1220, 1.1200
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.1431, 1.1456, 1.1483

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. Currently, the price has flattened and is trading in a corridor with boundaries of 1.1386–1.1431. According to the rules of range trading, it is best to look for sales from the upper boundary of the corridor and buy deals from the lower boundary. A breakout of 1.1386 will open the way for the price to 1.1455.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks through the support level of 1.1356 and consolidates below it, the downward trend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.3527
• قبلی بستن: 1.3551
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.18 %

The UK economy is showing resilience despite global uncertainty: higher business survey readings and solid first-quarter GDP point to a recovery after a weak end to 2024. However, according to Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, concerns remain about high levels of public debt, and the population is eager for an improvement in living standards. Markets expect the Bank of England to keep interest rates unchanged at its June 19 meeting.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.3505, 1.3454, 1.3435, 1.3390, 1.3333, 1.3291, 1.3121
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.3563, 1.3580, 1.3616

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD on the hourly chart is bullish. The British pound is also forming a flat accumulation. The resistance level of 1.3563 is a stumbling block for buyers. At the same time, the price is gradually being squeezed into a triangle (narrowing liquidity), which is a harbinger of impulsive movement. In such market conditions, it is best to wait for an impulsive breakout/breakdown and only then take action.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks through the support level of 1.3505 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 144.86
• قبلی بستن: 144.58
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.19 %

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda confirmed the Central Bank’s readiness to raise interest rates if core inflation approaches the 2% target. Although core consumer inflation has remained above 2% for three years, demand pressure remains weak. Ueda told parliament that the Bank of Japan is keeping real interest rates negative to support stable and sustainable inflation. On Tuesday, the Japanese yen weakened to around 145 per dollar.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 144.21, 143.45, 142.62, 142.19
• سطوح مقاومت: 145.06, 146.27, 146.85, 148.28

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bullish. A wide-range flat accumulation is also forming here. For buy trades, the support level of 144.21 can be considered, but with confirmation. For sell trades, the resistance level of 145.06 remains relevant. A consolidation of the price below the EMA lines and below the level of 144.21 could trigger a sell-off to 143.45.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks through the support level of 142.77 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

 

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 3315
• قبلی بستن: 3325
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.30 %

On Tuesday, gold prices fell below $3310 per ounce as optimism about easing trade tensions between the US and China weakened demand for safe-haven gold. High-level trade talks between the US and China began in London on Monday and were set to continue today as both sides sought to cement a fragile truce in a dispute that has expanded from tariffs to restrictions on rare earth elements.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 3303, 3272, 3248
• سطوح مقاومت: 3314, 3344, 3365, 3414

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. However, the price has fallen back to the 3303 support level, and the intraday bias is now with the sellers. It is important to assess the price reaction to the intermediate resistance level of 3314. A breakout above this level will open the way for the price to 3344. If buyers fail to break through 3314, there is a high probability of a decline to the priority change level of 3272.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks and consolidates below the support level of 3272, the downtrend will likely resume.