بررسی اجمالی تحلیلی جفت ارزهای اصلی در 2025.07.24

The EUR/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.1752
• قبلی بستن: 1.1770
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.15 %

The euro traded near the 1.175 level, remaining relatively close to its August 2021 high amid signs of an imminent trade agreement between the US and the EU. Reports indicate that EU diplomats are willing to agree to 15% tariffs from the US. The negative impact on economic activity in Europe caused by the US trade war has led markets to assume that the ECB may make dovish adjustments to its expectations amid the risk that inflation may fall below target. Today, the ECB will hold a meeting on monetary policy, and it is widely expected that the ECB will keep interest rates unchanged after eight consecutive cuts, with rate futures suggesting another 25 basis point cut before the end of the year. In contrast, the Fed is expected to cut rates twice this year by 25 basis points.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.1759, 1.1714, 1.1657, 1.1615
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.1786, 1.1810, 1.1913

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. The price is seeking to test the resistance level of 1.1786, where the first fixation of previously opened purchases may occur. This is indicated by the MACD divergence. Under such market conditions, buy deals can be considered from the support level of 1.1759, but with confirmation. Sales can be sought from 1.1786 or 1.1810, but also subject to the initiative of sellers on lower time frames.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks through the support level of 1.1615 and consolidates below it, the downward trend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.3528
• قبلی بستن: 1.3578
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.36 %

Today in the UK, attention is focused on key economic data. Preliminary PMI data is expected to show the smallest decline in manufacturing in six months and the strongest growth in services in nearly a year. Retail sales are also expected to recover, helped by hot weather. Meanwhile, the UK budget deficit in June was £20.7 billion, the second-highest June figure since 1993. Interest payments reached £16.4 billion, driven by inflationary costs on government bonds. This sharp rise in borrowing is fueling speculation that Finance Minister Rachel Reeves may be forced to raise taxes in the fall.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.3534, 1.3493, 1.3467, 1.3402
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.3586, 1.3645

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD is bullish. However, the price has now reached the resistance level of 1.3585, which, together with the MACD divergence, could lead to a corrective movement. Sell trades can be sought from 1.3533, but only with short-term targets, as these will be counter-trend positions. Buy trades should be considered from the support level of 1.3534.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks through the support level of 1.3402 and consolidates below it, the downward trend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 146.61
• قبلی بستن: 146.51
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.07 %

On Thursday, the Japanese yen strengthened above 146 per dollar, reaching a two-week high, as optimism about a new trade agreement between the US and Japan boosted demand. The agreement sets a 15% tariff on Japanese exports to the US, which is significantly lower than the 25% tariff previously threatened by President Donald Trump. Overall risk sentiment also improved amid reports of progress in trade negotiations between the US and the EU. On the domestic front, Japan’s private sector growth remained stable in July thanks to strong activity in the services sector, although manufacturing entered a downturn. However, the yen faces potential downward pressure due to growing political uncertainty.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 145.85, 145.28, 144.18
• سطوح مقاومت: 146.32, 147.15, 147.93

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bearish. The price has now reached the support level of 145.85, where the first fixation of previously opened sales is observed. Given the MACD divergence in this area, you can look for countertrend trades from 145.85 or 145.28. The level of 146.32 is best suited for sell deals.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 147.93 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 3431
• قبلی بستن: 3388
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -1.27 %

On Thursday, the price of gold fell below $3,380 per ounce, continuing its decline of more than 1% from the previous session, as optimism about further trade agreements between the US and key partners weakened the metal’s appeal as a safe haven. The European Union is moving towards a trade agreement with Washington that would impose a broad 15% tariff on goods from the EU. However, some caution remains amid ongoing threats of tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% on countries such as South Korea and India, which are still negotiating agreements. Traders are also waiting for clarification on the situation with negotiations with China, as Treasury Secretary Bessent plans to meet with Chinese officials next week.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 3373, 3345, 3320, 3309
• سطوح مقاومت: 3401, 3439, 3500

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold has entered a correction. The price has now reached the support level of 3373, where one can look for buys on intraday timeframes. The resistance level of 3401 is suitable for selling, but with confirmation.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks through the support level of 3345 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.