بررسی اجمالی تحلیلی جفت ارزهای اصلی در 2025.08.06

The EUR/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.1569
• قبلی بستن: 1.1575
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.05 %

The euro traded above $1.15 in early August, rebounding from the recent seven-week low of $1.139, as markets anticipate easing measures from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB), with the Fed expected to ease rates faster and more aggressively than the ECB. A weaker-than-expected US payrolls report for July, coupled with a sharp downward revision to May and June data, reinforced market expectations of a Fed rate cut as early as September, with at least one more cut expected before the end of the year. At the same time, money markets estimate the probability of ECB rate cut by the end of the year at about 60%, and it will increase to 80% by March 2026.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.1515, 1.1485, 1.1375, 1.1313
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.1611, 1.1710, 1.1770

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The situation has not changed compared to yesterday. Euro is forming a flat accumulation in front of the level of priority change 1.1611. Intraday, traders can consider buying from EMA lines or from support level 1.1515, but with confirmation. For selling, 1.1611 can be considered, but with the sellers’ initiative.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.1611 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.3287
• قبلی بستن: 1.3300
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.10 %

The S&P Global UK Services PMI for July 2025 was revised slightly higher to 51.8 from the flash estimate of 51.2, but still below June’s 11-month high of 52.8. Business activity rose for the third consecutive month, but companies continued to face low customer confidence and sales headwinds amid ongoing global uncertainty. Total new work fell at the fastest pace since November 2022, while export sales declined modestly and at a slower pace than in June. Staff employment recorded the sharpest fall since February, continuing the downward trend in employment that began in October 2024.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.3214, 1.3137
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.3313, 1.3368, 1.3402, 1.3452, 1.3470

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD is bearish. The British pound stuck to the resistance level of 1.3313. At the same time, buyers are raising the price, forming a narrowing triangle. As a rule, this behavior happens when buyers try to breakout the level. To buy, it is best to wait for a true breakout and look for positions from 1.3313 as support. Also, 1.3214 can be considered for buying in case of a deeper correction. Sell trades can be considered after a breakdown of the ascending triangle trend line.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.3470 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 147.08
• قبلی بستن: 147.61
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.36 %

The Japanese yen weakened to 147.7 per dollar on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous session as disappointing wage data added to economic concerns. Real wages in Japan fell for the sixth consecutive month in June, with inflation continuing to outpace wage growth, complicating the Bank of Japan’s path to further policy tightening. This data casts doubt on the possibility of a rate hike in the near term, especially as the BoJ struggles with sluggish wage dynamics, persistent inflation, and ongoing global trade uncertainty.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 147.36, 146.63, 146.34
• سطوح مقاومت: 147.89, 148.54, 149.18, 150.34

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bearish. The yen reached the support level of 146.63 on Tuesday, where buyers showed moderate initiative. Currently, the price is aiming for resistance at 147.89, forming a flat accumulation with the boundaries of 147.36–147.89. A breakout and holding above 147.89 will open the price to 148.54. If sellers react to 147.89, traders can consider selling to 147.36 and below.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks through the support level of 150.91 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 3374
• قبلی بستن: 3380
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.18 %

Gold traded around $3375 per ounce on Wednesday, holding on to most of its recent gains and remaining near a two-week high as rising expectations of looser monetary policy continued to support the appeal of the non-interest earning metal. Data from the US showed that the ISM Services Business Activity Index fell in July, missing expectations, signaling sluggish growth, lower employment, and increased price pressures. Additional data released last week also pointed to weakness in the labor market and consumer spending. These signs of economic weakness in the world’s largest economy have heightened expectations that the Federal Reserve will ease policy at its September meeting, with markets now estimating a 90% chance of a rate cut.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 3373, 3351, 3333, 3333, 3311, 3281
• سطوح مقاومت: 3401, 3438

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Currently, the price is trading near the support level of 3373, where market participants are not reacting yet. If the price impulsively consolidates below the 3373 level, it will trigger selling to 3351. A bullish initiative from 3373, on the contrary, will open up buying opportunities up to 3401.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks the support level of 3281 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.