بررسی اجمالی تحلیلی جفت ارزهای اصلی در 2025.10.06

The EUR/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.1712
• قبلی بستن: 1.1741
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.25 %

The HCOB PMI Index for the German services sector was revised down to 51.5 in September 2025 from a preliminary reading of 52.5. The latest data points to a moderate upturn in the services sector, which is growing at its fastest pace in eight months but remains below its long-term average. At the same time, the sector recorded its sharpest decline in employment in five years. Looking ahead, service providers expressed a positive outlook for activity in the coming year, driven by hopes for an improvement in the economic situation. Business expectations rose slightly to their highest level since May 2024.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.1683, 1.1634
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.1728, 1.1754, 1.1786, 1.1819

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is downward. On Friday, the euro rose to 1.1754, where sellers took the initiative. Currently, above 1.1728, a locked balance has formed, which will act as a resistance area. For intraday sales, traders can consider the EMA lines or the resistance level of 1.1728. The profit target is to update the low of the previous week. There are currently no optimal entry points for buy deals.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.1819 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.3432
• قبلی بستن: 1.3479
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.33 %

The S&P Global UK Services PMI fell to 50.8 in September 2025 from a more than one-year high of 54.2 in the previous month. This marked the slowest pace of growth since April, as weak economic conditions and heightened market uncertainty weighed on output growth. As a result, the number of new jobs increased only slightly. Nevertheless, business confidence remained positive in September, although optimism declined compared to August and remained well below pre-pandemic averages.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.3400, 1.3388, 1.3332, 1.3315
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.3463, 1.3522, 1.3585

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD is a downtrend. The British pound has formed another locked balance above 1.3464, and currently, the area above this level is a large resistance zone. Intraday, traders can consider selling from the EMA lines or from the resistance level of 1.3464. Profit targets are 1.3400 and 1.3389. For buy deals, it is necessary to see an impulse breakout of the downward trend line.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.3532 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 147.21
• قبلی بستن: 147.47
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.18 %

On Monday, the Japanese yen fell nearly 2% to 150 per dollar, hitting a two-month low after a ruling party vote set the stage for Sanae Takaichi, a supporter of soft fiscal policy and stimulus measures, to become Japan’s next prime minister. Among the five contenders for the Liberal Democratic Party’s prime ministerial post, replacing hawkish Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, Takaichi was considered the most expansionary candidate, close to the late Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics” policies. After her victory, Takai stated that the government and the Central Bank must work closely together to achieve inflation driven by demand and supported by growth in wages and corporate earnings. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated on Friday that they would resume raising interest rates if growth and inflation develop in line with expectations.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 147.47, 146.25, 148.85
• سطوح مقاومت: 150.89

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY has changed to upward. The Japanese yen opened with an upward gap amid the election of a new prime minister. The price has consolidated above the resistance level of 149.95. A sharp return below this level could trigger a strong sell-off to 148.83. But until that happens, the bias remains with buyers, and the price could reach the resistance level of 150.89. However, buyers should be cautious, as the price has deviated significantly from the average lines.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks through the support level of 147.05 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 3855
• قبلی بستن: 3885
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.77%

On Monday, gold prices rose above $3,900 per ounce to a record high, driven by investors seeking safe assets amid growing concerns about the prolonged US government shutdown. The government shutdown continued into this week after the Senate failed on Friday to agree on competing plans to extend federal funding. This has delayed the release of key economic data, including the September Nonfarm Payrolls report, forcing investors to rely on alternative indicators that signal a weakening labor market and reinforce expectations of an imminent rate cut. Markets are now pricing in a 95% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and an 84% probability in December. Since the beginning of the year, gold has risen in price by almost 50% amid heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty, expectations of further rate cuts, Central Bank purchases, and inflows into ETFs.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 3896, 3867, 3820, 3800
• سطوح مقاومت: 3950, 4000

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold continues its rally. Currently, the targets for gold are the psychological levels of 3950 and 4000. There are no prerequisites for selling at this time. For buying, it is worth considering trades from the EMA lines or from the nearest support level of 3896.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks the support level of 3800 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.