بررسی اجمالی تحلیلی جفت ارزهای اصلی در 2026.03.04

The EUR/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.1685
• قبلی بستن: 1.1612
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.63%

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair consolidated at the $1.16 level, its lowest since mid-January. Despite an unexpected spike in Eurozone inflation, the single currency failed to recover as global demand for the safe-haven US dollar reached a peak. Donald Trump’s statement regarding the readiness to conduct military operations against Iran for a month or longer has created long-term uncertainty, driving investors out of European assets in favor of US cash. February inflation data (1.9% headline and 2.4% core) came in above prediction, forcing markets to radically revise expectations for the ECB. While traders were betting on rate cuts as recently as late last week, the probability of a rate hike by year-end is now estimated at 40%.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.1587, 1.1528
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.1626, 1.1673, 1.1707, 1.1724, 1.1747, 1.1766

The European currency declined yesterday to 1.1528, where buyers showed initiative after testing the liquidity pool. Currently, the price is trading within the 1.1587-1.1626 corridor and is heading toward the upper bound of the range. Traders should focus on the price reaction at 1.1626. An impulsive breakout of this level will pave the way to 1.1673 as a corrective movement. If sellers react at 1.1626, intraday sell trades can be considered with targets down to 1.1587 and below.

سناریوی جایگزین:

• Trend: Down
• Sup: 1.1587
• Res: 1.1626
• Note: Consider intraday sell trades if a false breakout forms at 1.1626. An impulsive breakout of this level will open the way to 1.1673.

The GBP/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.3400
• قبلی بستن: 1.3356
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.33%

Sterling declined to $1.3250, reaching its lowest level since December 9. The currency faced a double blow: the global flight of investors to the safe-haven US dollar amid the escalation of the war with Iran, and domestic pessimism following the revision of economic anticipation in London. The OBR lowered its UK GDP growth prognosis for 2026 from 1.4% to 1.1%. Chancellor Rachel Reeves was forced to acknowledge the economic slowdown even before the full consequences of the current energy shock had manifested. Although the OBR predicts a long-term decline in inflation, the current surge in gas prices may force the Bank of England to hold rates high longer than the stagnating economy can endure.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.3292
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.3370, 1.3432, 1.3454, 1.3501, 1.3582, 1.3606

The British pound reached the liquidity pool below 1.3292, where buyers showed initiative. This significantly increases the probability of a corrective move. The bias is shifting toward buys. Intraday, traders can look for buying trades up to the 1.3370 resistance level, above which liquidity resides. Subsequently, it is crucial to evaluate the price reaction at 1.3370: an impulsive breakout will open the path to the next level at 1.3432, whereas a false breakout at 1.3370 could lead to another sell-off down to 1.3292.

سناریوی جایگزین:

• Trend: Down
• Sup: 1.3292
• Res: 1.3370
• Note: Intraday, looking for intraday buy trades up to 1.3370. An impulsive breakout of 1.3370 will lead to a price rise toward 1.3432. A false breakout at 1.3370 will trigger a sell-off.

The USD/JPY currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 157.41
• قبلی بستن: 157.71
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.19%

On Wednesday, the yield on 10-year JGB fell by 5 basis points to 2.1%. This move reflects growing market skepticism regarding the Bank of Japan’s ability to continue aggressive policy tightening amid a global energy crisis. While inflation remains elevated due to expensive imports, signs of “sluggish growth” are forcing investors to seek refuge in government bonds, pushing yields lower. The Japanese yen is suffering as a result.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 157.11, 156.80, 156.17, 155.70, 155.34, 154.86, 154.00
• سطوح مقاومت: 157.73, 158.12

The Japanese currency reached the 157.73 resistance level, above which there is a large cluster of liquidity. An impulsive breakout did not occur; therefore, from a technical standpoint, a correction to 157.11 or lower is brewing. To enter a sell within the correction, intraday trades can be considered from 157.73, but with confirmation. For buys, evaluate the price reaction at the 157.11 or 156.80 support levels, where buyers may regain the initiative.

سناریوی جایگزین:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 157.11
• Res: 157.73
• Note: Looking for intraday sells from the 157.73 resistance level, but with confirmation. For buys, evaluate the price reaction at the 157.11 or 156.80 support levels.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 5331
• قبلی بستن: 5090
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -4.73%

Gold prices plummeted by nearly 5% on Tuesday to the $5,050 per ounce level. This collapse interrupted a five-day rally and was the result of a paradoxical market reaction: faced with a direct military threat to Iranian facilities and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, investors began exiting Gold en masse in favor of the cash US dollar. The strengthening of the dollar, driven by its status as the world’s primary haven, combined with soaring Treasury yields, stripped gold of fundamental support despite the extreme level of geopolitical risk. Nevertheless, gold held above the psychological mark of $5,000.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 5140, 5084, 5000
• سطوح مقاومت: 5191, 5226, 5334, 5379, 5416

Gold quotes unexpectedly continued their sell-off. The metal fell to the psychological mark of 5000, where buyers showed initiative. Today, it is important to evaluate the price reaction at the 5191 and 5226 resistance levels. If sellers are active here, it could trigger additional sell-offs down to 5140 or 5084. An impulsive breakout of 5226 will open the path to 5334.

سناریوی جایگزین:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 5140
• Res: 5191
• Note: For buys, considering the support level of 5140, but with confirmation. Sales are appropriate within the day from resistance levels of 5191 or 5226, but only after the sellers take the initiative.