بررسی اجمالی تحلیلی جفت ارزهای اصلی در 2026.03.12

The EUR/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.1610
• قبلی بستن: 1.1575
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.30%

On Wednesday, the European currency surrendered its morning gains, falling below the $1.16 level. This movement anchored the euro at its lowest value since late November of last year. The primary factor weighing on the single currency remains a volatile mix of geopolitical uncertainty and fear of a new inflationary spiral. Against this backdrop, sentiment regarding European Central Bank policy has turned noticeably hawkish. While the market discussed only the timing of rate cuts at the beginning of the year, traders are now actively pricing in at least one 25-basis-point hike by the end of 2026. Some market participants have gone even further, estimating the probability of a double hike if inflationary pressures do not subside in the coming months.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.1508, 1.1468
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.1607, 1.1666, 1.1707, 1.1724, 1.1747, 1.1766

Buyers failed to hold the price above 1.1607: the level was broken by momentum, after which the price headed downward. Currently, the intraday bias remains with the sellers, with targets to test liquidity pools below 1.1508 or 1.1468 (the latter being more preferred). Under these market conditions, one can look for intraday sell trades from the EMA lines toward the specified targets. For buys, we should wait to see the buyer initiative starting from 1.1468.

سناریوی جایگزین:

• Trend: Down
• Sup: 1.1508
• Res: 1.1607
• Note: Look for intraday sell trades from the EMA lines. For buyers, wait for buyer initiative from 1.1468.

The GBP/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.3417
• قبلی بستن: 1.3412
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.04%

The British pound demonstrated enviable resilience, holding above the $1.34 mark. The currency continues to recover after falling to three-month lows recorded in early March. Support for the pound comes not only from a general improvement in market sentiment following IEA interventions but also from a sharp revision of UK interest rate expectations. OBR has already warned that if energy prices remain at current levels, UK inflation could rise to 3% by the end of the year – a full percentage point higher than previous expectations. Consequently, 10-year government bond (gilts) yields jumped to nearly 4.5%, reflecting market confidence that the Bank of England will be forced to hold rates at 3.75% much longer than anticipated.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.3306, 1.3253
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.3397, 1.3463, 1.3501, 1.3582, 1.3606

The British pound is more resistant to dollar strength; however, despite this, buyers failed to maintain the price above 1.3397, which opens the path for a decline to 1.3306. Under these market conditions, sell trades can be considered from the EMA lines or from the 1.3397 resistance level. There are currently no optimal entry points for buys.

سناریوی جایگزین:

• Trend: Down
• Sup: 1.3306
• Res: 1.3397
• Note: Look for intraday sell trades from the 1.3397 resistance level, but with confirmation. There are currently no optimal entry points for buys.

The USD/JPY currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 158.09
• قبلی بستن: 158.87
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.49%

The Japanese yen traded at 158 per dollar, remaining under significant pressure due to conflicting signals from the conflict zone. While Donald Trump continues to claim a swift conclusion to the “excursion” in Iran, the Pentagon’s actual moves suggest otherwise. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed that Tuesday saw the most massive strikes on Iranian military and industrial facilities, while the US Navy reported the destruction of 16 mine-laying vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Such uncertainty forces investors to maintain positions in the dollar. Domestically, the PPI grew by only 2% in February, the lowest figure in nearly two years. This slowdown in wholesale inflation gives the Bank of Japan some breathing room; however, it does not yet account for the March surge in energy prices.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 158.78, 158.39, 157.97, 157.38, 156.80, 156.17, 155.70
• سطوح مقاومت: 159.22, 159.47

The Japanese yen has consolidated above the 158.78 resistance level, which clears the path for the price to reach the liquidity pool above 159.47. The closer the price gets to the 160 level, the higher the likelihood of currency intervention by Japanese authorities. The MACD divergence has also been prolonged, indicating an approaching deep correction. But as long as there is no initiative from sellers, regular retail traders should focus on buying. Intraday, we are evaluating the price reaction to the 158.78 support level – if buyers react, it will open opportunities for buy trades. A momentum breakout of 158.78 will open the path to 158.39.

سناریوی جایگزین:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 158.79
• Res: 159.22
• Note: Look for intraday buys from the 158.78 support level, but with confirmation. A momentum breakout of 158.79 will clear the way to 158.39.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 5190
• قبلی بستن: 5177
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.25%

The price of gold corrected to the $5,180 per ounce level, retreating from daily highs near $5,230. The precious metals market has hit a patch of turbulence, attempting to balance two powerful factors: the escalation of the Middle East conflict and fresh US inflation statistics, which forced investors to reassess expectations for Fed dovishness. The geopolitical situation remains extremely tense. The twelfth day of the military operation was marked by the most massive US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets, effectively paralyzing shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The published US CPI report showed that inflation remained at 2.4% year-on-year in February. While this data matched predictions, investors realized it did not reflect the March explosion in oil prices.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 5116, 5061, 4996, 4963
• سطوح مقاومت: 5175, 5223, 5238, 5334

Today, the focus is on the intraday resistance level of 5175: this is where the direction for the next two days will be determined. If sellers react at 5175 and prevent the price from consolidating above the root of the downward impulse, it will trigger a sell-off to 5156. If buyers manage to push through 5175 and the price closes above it with momentum, expect a rise to 5223.

سناریوی جایگزین:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 5116
• Res: 5175
• Note: Priority is given to sell trades from the 5175 resistance level, but mandatory confirmation is required. A momentum breakout of the 5175 level will open the path to 5223.