بررسی اجمالی تحلیلی جفت ارزهای اصلی در 2026.04.10

The EUR/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.1658
• قبلی بستن: 1.1698
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.34%

On Thursday, the euro stabilized just below the 1.17 level, reflecting a fragile equilibrium in the FX market. After Wednesday’s sharp rally, the single currency entered a consolidation phase as investors began to question the durability of the 14‑day ceasefire. Geopolitical uncertainty is compounded by the unclear status of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the announced truce, navigation in this critical chokepoint remains paralyzed, and Iran continues to use control over the strait as a tool of political pressure in response to Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah. Adding fuel to the fire, US President Donald Trump stated on Truth Social that American forces will remain in the region in full combat readiness until a “real agreement” is reached.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.1643, 1.1605
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.1722, 1.1747, 1.1766

The euro is forming a sideways accumulation range between 1.1643 and 1.1722. The price tested the upper boundary of the range, and given the MACD divergence, there is a high probability of a decline toward 1.1643. Long positions should be considered only after a liquidity test below 1.1643. There are no optimal short setups at the moment.

سناریوی جایگزین:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 1.1643
• Res: 1.1722
• Note: Long positions may be considered from 1.1643, but only with confirmation. No optimal short setups at this time.

The GBP/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.3395
• قبلی بستن: 1.3434
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.29%

The British pound stalled just below 1.34 dollars, reflecting a state of anxious anticipation across global markets. The market reacted sharply to the renewed blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which immediately pushed energy prices higher, creating new risks for the UK economy. Additional pressure came from Donald Trump’s firm statement that US military presence in the region will remain until a “real agreement” is reached — a signal markets interpreted as a sign of prolonged confrontation. Under these conditions, the pound finds support only in monetary‑policy expectations. Investors are once again pricing in at least one Bank of England rate hike before the end of 2026 to curb inflation fueled by expensive imported energy.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.3380, 1.3300, 1.3252
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.3478, 1.3508, 1.3556

Like the euro, the British pound is forming a sideways accumulation pattern. The lower boundary of the range has formed at 1.3380. This level may be considered for long entries if a bullish reaction appears. The profit target remains the upper boundary of the range at 1.3478. There are no optimal short setups at the moment.

سناریوی جایگزین:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 1.3380
• Res: 1.3478
• Note: Long positions are appropriate from 1.3380 with confirmation. No optimal short setups at this time.

The USD/JPY currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 158.48
• قبلی بستن: 158.93
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.91%

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda finds himself in a difficult position: inflation is being fueled by expensive imports, and the yen has depreciated 2% since the start of the Middle East conflict, repeatedly testing the critical 160 level. Markets are pricing in a 70% probability of a rate hike at the April 28 meeting. Analysts draw parallels with Ueda’s December decision, when he provided clear forward guidance in advance. Investors are now scrutinizing every word from the governor, understanding that without policy tightening, the yen risks becoming the main casualty of a prolonged Middle East war.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 158.66, 158.37
• سطوح مقاومت: 159.30, 159.97

Sellers showed interest at 159.30 yesterday, and today the focus is on the price reaction to a retest of this level. If sellers remain active, intraday short positions toward 158.66 may be considered. An impulsive breakout above 159.30 could trigger a sharp rise toward 159.97.

سناریوی جایگزین:

• Trend: Down
• Sup: 158.66
• Res: 159.30
• Note: For short entries, focus on resistance at 159.30. An impulsive breakout above this level may trigger a sharp rise toward 159.97.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 4726
• قبلی بستن: 4764
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.80%

On Thursday, gold prices posted moderate gains, consolidating near 4750 dollars per ounce. Investors began rebuilding safe‑haven positions in response to the critical instability of the two‑week ceasefire. The main driver of demand was the sharp spike in oil prices to 99 dollars, which intensified fears of a new wave of global inflation. Extremely high oil prices have pushed the Federal Reserve into a hawkish stance, virtually eliminating hopes for rate cuts in 2026. High interest rates traditionally reduce the appeal of gold as a non‑yielding asset, creating a strong counterbalance to its safe‑haven qualities during military conflicts.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 4700, 4608
• سطوح مقاومت: 4801, 4900, 4963

Gold continues to trade within the 4700-4801 range. Yesterday, the price tested the upper boundary, where sellers showed a moderate reaction. This may lead to a decline and a retest of 4700. Under such market conditions, long positions should be considered from 4700 with confirmation, or after a breakout above 4801. There are no optimal short setups at the moment.

سناریوی جایگزین:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 4700
• Res: 4800
• Note: Long positions may be considered from 4700 with confirmation, or after a breakout above 4801. No optimal short setups at this time.