بررسی اجمالی تحلیلی جفت ارزهای اصلی در 2026.06.09

The EUR/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.1511
• قبلی بستن: 1.1534
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.20%

On Monday, the single European currency showed a moderate corrective rebound. The EUR/USD pair managed to bounce off the lowest level in the past 2.25 months thanks to the local weakening of the US dollar and massive closing of short positions (speculative bets on the euro’s decline) by large players at the close of the trading session. Additional and strong support for the single currency came from leading business activity indicators. The Sentix investor confidence Index in the Eurozone for June unexpectedly rose by 3.0 points to minus 3.4 points, far exceeding the pessimistic market outlooks, which expected a decline to minus 14.0 points. This surge in institutional investor optimism coincided with 100% confidence in the money markets that the European Central Bank will raise the interest rate by 25 basis points at the upcoming meeting this Thursday in order to combat May inflation, which accelerated to 3.2%.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.1528, 1.1511, 1.1490, 1.1450
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.1575, 1.1610, 1.1630, 1.1651

The euro is forming a flat accumulation. This often happens after sharp sell‑offs, such as the one that occurred on Friday. Intraday bias has shifted to buyers, which, given the MACD divergence, forms a corrective wave. But the upper boundary of the flat has not yet formed, which complicates the search for entry points for selling. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be considered intraday from the support levels 1.1528 or 1.1511, but with confirmation. For selling, there are currently no optimal entry points.

سناریوی جایگزین:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 1.1528
• Res: 1.1575
• Note: Buy trades can be considered intraday from 1.1528 or 1.1511 with confirmation. For selling, there are currently no optimal entry points.

The GBP/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.3327
• قبلی بستن: 1.3338
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.08%

Investors have revised their predictions and now fully price in at least two interest rate hikes by the Bank of England by the end of 2026. However, a serious split is emerging within the regulator regarding further actions. Influential MPC member Alan Taylor publicly opposed further tightening. He emphasized that the current monetary policy parameters are already sufficiently restrictive to curb inflation, and additional hikes could cause irreparable damage to the real sector. Taylor’s concerns are clearly confirmed by fresh macroeconomic data indicating a cooling of the national economy under the weight of high rates. According to a new joint report by REC and KPMG, the number of Britons hired for permanent positions in May fell at the fastest pace in the past 10 months.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.3336, 1.3309, 1.3252
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.3368, 1.3388, 1.3412, 1.3459, 1.3483, 1.3507

The British pound, like the euro, came under strong pressure on Friday. But after testing liquidity below 1.3309, intraday bias shifted to buyers. The price is now forming a flat accumulation with boundaries at 1.3336-1.3336. Under such market conditions, today selling from 1.3368 can be considered, but with confirmation. For buying, the support levels 1.3336 and 1.3309 remain relevant.

سناریوی جایگزین:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 1.3336
• Res: 1.3368
• Note: Today selling from 1.3368 can be considered with confirmation. For buying, the support levels 1.3336 and 1.3309 remain relevant.

The USD/JPY currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 160.16
• قبلی بستن: 160.15
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.01%

On Monday, the USD/JPY pair closed with a symbolic decline of 0.01%. The yen managed to recover after falling to a five‑week low, when the rate approached the critical level of 160.50 yen per US dollar. The main restraining factor for currency speculators was the high risk of emergency interventions by Japan’s Ministry of Finance. Revised GDP for Japan for Q1 contracted by 1.8% year‑on‑year, which turned out significantly better than market expectations of a 1.4% decline. At the same time, the May Eco Watchers Outlook Index rose to 40.7 points, exceeding the consensus prognosis. Economic resilience amid high oil prices strengthened investor confidence in imminent policy tightening by the local regulator. Money markets now price in an 88% probability that the Bank of Japan will raise the interest rate by 25 basis points at the upcoming meeting on June 16.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 159.83, 159.67, 159.45, 159.14, 158.65
• سطوح مقاومت: 160.26, 160.53

Technically, the picture has not changed. The Japanese yen has consolidated above the psychological level of 160 and is now heading toward liquidity above 160.53, where Japanese authorities previously conducted large‑scale currency intervention. Intraday bias remains with buyers, so the most appropriate approach is to look for buy trades from EMA lines or the trendline. For selling, we evaluate the price reaction at 160.53 and do not rule out new currency injections from Japanese officials. In the event of intervention, the price may sharply strengthen toward the 159.14 area.

سناریوی جایگزین:

• Trend: Uptrend
• Sup: 159.84
• Res: 160.53
• Note: Buy trades are appropriate from EMA lines or the ascending trendline. For selling, evaluate the price reaction at 160.53 and do not rule out new currency interventions.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 4325
• قبلی بستن: 4330
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.11%

Gold prices bounced off intraday lows and corrected to 4330 dollars per ounce. Earlier in the session, the precious metal fell to the lowest level since March 23, remaining near the weakest closing level since late last year amid conflicting geopolitical signals. At the same time, gold prices are pressured by a purely economic monetary factor. Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, WTI oil prices remain elevated (around 91-95 dollars), which, combined with Friday’s blockbuster US labor market report, has increased stagflation risks. According to the CME FedWatch tool, due to the threat of entrenched inflation, investors sharply revised their expectations: the probability of a 25‑basis‑point Fed rate hike in December jumped to 70% from 45% a week earlier. Expectations of tight policy by the US regulator and rising government bond yields deprive zero‑yield gold of investment appeal.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 4314, 4304, 4169
• سطوح مقاومت: 4343, 4403, 4429, 4467

Gold has slightly corrected after Friday’s sharp decline. Intraday bias is now with buyers, but the medium‑term trend remains with sellers. The price is currently trapped in the 4314-4343 range. Under such market conditions, it is worth evaluating the price reaction to levels. A breakout and consolidation above 4343 will lead to gold rising to 4370. If sellers show a reaction from 4343, gold will likely decline to 4314, where buyers may also show initiative.

سناریوی جایگزین:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 4314
• Res: 4343
• Note: Buy trades are considered from 4314 if buyers show reaction, or after a breakout of 4343 on momentum. For selling, evaluate the price reaction at 4343 or 4370.