بررسی اجمالی تحلیلی جفت ارزهای اصلی در 2026.06.23

The EUR/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.1463
• قبلی بستن: 1.1428
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.30%

On Monday, EUR/USD fell by 0.42%, settling near a three‑month low amid the “dovish” rhetoric of ECB President Christine Lagarde. Speaking before the European Parliament, she stated that there are no signs of long‑term inflation acceleration or dangerous second‑round effects due to the US-Iran conflict, emphasizing that the regulator does not need to take more aggressive measures. These comments came less than two weeks after the ECB raised the main rate to 2.40% (and the deposit rate to 2.25%), sharply cooling expectations of further tightening – traders now estimate the probability of another 25‑bp hike at the July 23 meeting at only 10-23%.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.1452, 1.1415, 1.1383
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.1488, 1.1523, 1.1559

The euro again declined to the support level of 1.1418, but this time buyer reaction was much weaker. The price is being pushed lower – clearly visible from the candle wicks, where every attempt to rise is met with rejection. Under such market conditions, there is a high probability of a break below 1.1418 and a decline toward 1.1383. However, if buyers do show initiative from 1.1418, intraday long positions above 1.1430 may be considered with targets at 1.1457 and 1.1478.

سناریوی جایگزین:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 1.1455
• Res: 1.1478
• Note: For sell trades, wait for an impulsive break of 1.1418 with a target at 1.1383. Buy trades are appropriate only after a clear buyer reaction at 1.1418.

The GBP/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.3185
• قبلی بستن: 1.3250
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.49 %

The British pound recovered to 1.33 dollars after falling to March lows, reacting to Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s official resignation announcement. The political crisis, which escalated after the Labour Party’s crushing losses in local elections, ended with Starmer’s departure and opened the way for a leadership change in the UK. The trigger for the final stage of the reshuffle was the decisive victory of Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham in the Makerfield by‑election, which returned him to the House of Commons and allowed him to announce his intention to run for prime minister. Investors are now fully focused on the future parameters of the UK’s fiscal policy, as Burnham’s economic program has not yet been presented. The main long‑term concern for bond and currency markets remains the risk of a significant increase in gilt issuance. If the new leadership decides to finance large social and infrastructure promises through higher borrowing, this will inevitably worsen the already fragile state of UK public finances, limiting the medium‑term upside potential for the pound.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.3184, 1.3126, 1.3093
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.3251, 1.3327, 1.3390

The British pound looks stronger than the euro. Yesterday, the price tested liquidity above 1.3251, after which sellers reacted. This increases the likelihood of a decline toward the intraday level of 1.3227 (a liquidity void) and possibly even toward 1.3184 if buyers fail to react at 1.3237. Under such market conditions, intraday sell trades from 1.3251 are appropriate. Buy trades become relevant only after a bullish reaction at one of the listed support levels.

سناریوی جایگزین:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 1.3184
• Res: 1.3251
• Note: Consider sell trades from the resistance level of 1.3251 with confirmation. For buy trades, evaluate price reaction at 1.3227 and 1.3184.

The USD/JPY currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 161.22
• قبلی بستن: 161.54
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.20%

On Monday, during the session, the Japanese yen collapsed to another 23‑month low against the US dollar, consolidating above the psychological 160-161 yen per dollar range. The decline of the national currency as a safe‑haven asset was driven by a powerful surge in risk appetite: the Nikkei 225 soared to a new all‑time high amid progress in Middle East peace negotiations. Adding fuel to the fire was the US bond market, where rising Treasury yields widened the interest‑rate spread further against Japan. At the same time, fundamental pressure on the yen is coming from growing market concerns that the Bank of Japan is critically late in normalizing monetary policy. Recent comments from BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida – stating that the regulator will assess the impact of higher rates “very slowly and cautiously” – confirmed to markets that ultra‑loose policy will persist. Against this backdrop, investors estimate the probability of another BOJ move at the upcoming July 31 meeting at only 4%.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 161.50, 161.19, 160.53, 160.20, 160.05, 159.60, 159.45
• سطوح مقاومت: 162.00

The yen strengthened sharply yesterday to 161.19, but after testing liquidity below, dollar buyers re‑entered: the price rebounded sharply and is again trading above the EMA lines. Technically, the quotes are pushing to update multi‑decade highs above 162 yen per dollar. However, if the price closes below 161.50 again today, this may trigger renewed yen strengthening toward 161.19 and lower. But as long as the price remains above the EMA lines and above the intraday level of 161.50, traders should focus on further upside.

سناریوی جایگزین:

• Trend: Uptrend
• Sup: 161.50
• Res: 162.00
• Note: For buy trades, consider the support level of 161.50 or the EMA lines, but with confirmation. FX intervention by Japanese authorities from the 161.85–162.00 zone cannot be ruled out.

 

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 4153
• قبلی بستن: 4192
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.93%

On Tuesday, gold and silver prices fell to weekly lows amid broad US dollar strength and a sharp decline in geopolitical risks. News of “significant progress” in overnight US-Iran negotiations weakened the status of precious metals as safe‑haven assets. Pressure on prices was also intensified by large investment funds recording massive outflows: long positions in gold ETFs fell to a 7.5‑month low, and silver ETF holdings dropped to an 11‑month low. However, the market decline was limited by monetary and political factors. “Dovish” comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde – ruling out panic rate hikes due to the Middle East crisis – reduced pressure on non‑yielding metals, while the political crisis and resignation of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer revived local demand for safe havens. The main long‑term support for the gold market remains central bank purchases. Investors paid particular attention to the People’s Bank of China, which increased its reserves by 320,000 troy ounces in May (to 74.96 million ounces) – the largest monthly increase in 17 months and the nineteenth consecutive month of buying.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 4126, 4031, 3877
• سطوح مقاومت: 4171, 4232, 4273, 4323, 4378, 4467

Buyers failed to hold the support zone below 4171 – the price broke through this area impulsively and reached last week’s low at 4126. Given the MACD divergence, buy trades may be considered here if buyers show a reaction in the liquidity zone below. If buyers fail again, gold may fall toward 4031.

سناریوی جایگزین:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 4126
• Res: 4171
• Note: Intraday long trades from 4126 are appropriate, but only with confirmation via buyer reaction. An impulsive break below 4126 opens the path toward 4031.