मुख्य मुद्रा जोड़े का विश्लेषणात्मक अवलोकन 2025.09.01

The EUR/USD currency pair

मुद्रा जोड़ी के तकनीकी संकेतक:

• पिछला ओपन: 1.1680
• पिछला क्लोज: 1.1686
• अंतिम दिन की तुलना में % परिवर्तन: +0.05 %

The latest price data showed that harmonized inflation in the EU was slightly below expectations in France and Italy, while the consensus was reached in Spain. Interest rate futures continued to show that most of the market believes the European Central Bank will not cut rates further this year, although lingering concerns about low growth and headwinds from US tariffs kept some positions open for a rate cut in the fourth quarter. The euro has risen 11% against the dollar this year as EU countries signaled they would increase spending to stimulate industry, infrastructure, and defense, while uncertain economic policy and fiscal stress in the US triggered a flight from the dollar.

ट्रेडिंग सिफ़ारिशें

• समर्थन स्तर: 1.1687, 1.1656, 1.1629, 1.1611, 1.1589, 1.1528
• प्रतिरोध स्तर: 1.1717, 1.1737

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. The euro has consolidated above 1.1687 and is now aiming to test 1.1717. Given the MACD divergence, previously opened buy positions may be closed here, which could lead to the formation of a flat. A breakout and consolidation above 1.1717 will open the way to liquidity above 1.1737. There are currently no optimal entry points for selling.

वैकल्पिक परिदृश्य:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.1590 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

मुद्रा जोड़ी के तकनीकी संकेतक:

• पिछला ओपन: 1.3507
• पिछला क्लोज: 1.3503
• अंतिम दिन की तुलना में % परिवर्तन: -0.03 %

The British pound fell to $1.3455 amid concerns about fiscal policy after the Institute for Public Policy Research called for a tax on profits for banks that earn profits from reserves at the Bank of England. Analysts warn that fiscal policy could put further pressure on sterling as Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to raise taxes again. Nevertheless, sterling has risen 2% against the dollar over the month, helped by strong UK data and reduced expectations of an imminent Bank of England rate cut. The probability of a rate cut before the end of 2025 is less than 50%, with the first move possible in spring 2026.

ट्रेडिंग सिफ़ारिशें

• समर्थन स्तर: 1.3490, 1.3445, 1.3396, 1.3313, 1.3214, 1.3137
• प्रतिरोध स्तर: 1.3530, 1.3586

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD is bullish. The price is retesting the resistance level of 1.3530. A breakout and consolidation above this level will open the way for the price to 1.3586. If sellers react at 1.3530, the price may flatten or correct slightly. However, since the bias remains with the bulls, it is better to refrain from selling.

वैकल्पिक परिदृश्य:

if the price breaks through the support level of 1.3396 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

मुद्रा जोड़ी के तकनीकी संकेतक:

• पिछला ओपन: 146.86
• पिछला क्लोज: 147.02
• अंतिम दिन की तुलना में % परिवर्तन: +0.10 %

On Monday, the yen strengthened to 146.8 per dollar, recovering losses from the previous session, as the dollar remained under pressure from expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. This week, traders are also awaiting a series of US labor market data releases that could influence the Fed’s next moves. In Japan, data showed that capital spending rose 7.6% in the second quarter of 2025, accelerating from 6.4% in the previous quarter and exceeding expectations of 6.2%. Meanwhile, the August PMI Index for the manufacturing sector was revised down to 49.7 from 49.9, marking the 13th contraction in business activity in the last 14 months. Markets continue to assess the likelihood of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates before the end of the year, supported by wage growth, steady inflation, and more optimistic economic projections.

ट्रेडिंग सिफ़ारिशें

• समर्थन स्तर: 146.74, 146.35
• प्रतिरोध स्तर: 147.34, 147.94, 148.03, 148.52, 149.18, 150.34

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bearish. The Japanese yen has consolidated below 147.10, and a wide flat is forming with boundaries of 146.74–147.34. The price is now heading towards the lower border of the flat, where it is important to assess the price action. If buyers react here, intraday buy deals to the upper border of the flat can be considered. If the price consolidates below 146.74, this will open the way for the price to fall to 146.35.

वैकल्पिक परिदृश्य:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 148.53 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

मुद्रा जोड़ी के तकनीकी संकेतक:

• पिछला ओपन: 3422
• पिछला क्लोज: 3452
• अंतिम दिन की तुलना में % परिवर्तन: +0.87 %

On Monday, gold prices rose above $3470 per ounce, approaching a record high amid uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s tariffs and rising bets on a US interest rate cut. A federal appeals court ruled that Trump’s global tariffs were illegally imposed under emergency law, upholding a May ruling by the Court of International Trade. However, the tariffs will remain in effect until October 14, giving the Trump administration time to appeal to the Supreme Court. In addition, hearings on Trump’s decision to dismiss Fed Chair Lisa Cook ended without a decision, and a ruling is not expected until Tuesday at the earliest. Meanwhile, US inflation data has reinforced expectations of a rate cut this month, with traders currently pricing in an 87% probability of a 25 bps cut. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also reiterated her support for easing rates.

ट्रेडिंग सिफ़ारिशें

• समर्थन स्तर: 3438, 3402, 3383, 3374, 3362, 3350, 3327, 3311, 3281
• प्रतिरोध स्तर: 3500

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold continues to rally and is aiming to renew its historic high of 3500. There are no signs of a reversal: the MACD indicator is rising without divergence, and volumes also point to buyer interest. There are currently no optimal entry points for selling. Buy deals should be considered on intraday time frames, but it should be noted that on the hourly time frame, the price has deviated significantly from the average lines.

वैकल्पिक परिदृश्य:

if the price breaks the support level of 3351 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.