मुख्य मुद्रा जोड़े का विश्लेषणात्मक अवलोकन 2025.10.02

The EUR/USD currency pair

मुद्रा जोड़ी के तकनीकी संकेतक:

• पिछला ओपन: 1.1731
• पिछला क्लोज: 1.1730
• अंतिम दिन की तुलना में % परिवर्तन: -0.01 %

The euro traded above the 1.17 mark after Eurostat data confirmed an acceleration of the Eurozone inflation in September, while the US dollar fell following weaker-than-expected ADP employment data and the start of the first US government shutdown in seven years. Inflation rose to 2.2% compared to 2.0% in August, slightly exceeding the European Central Bank’s average target, as energy prices declined at a slower pace. The data reinforced expectations that the ECB will refrain from cutting rates for now. ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos stated on Tuesday that “the current level of interest rates is adequate,” adding that decisions would be made “meeting by meeting.” This release is the last inflation indicator before the ECB meeting on October 30, where rates are widely expected to remain unchanged until new projections are presented in December.

ट्रेडिंग सिफ़ारिशें

• समर्थन स्तर: 1.1709,1.1661,1.1634
• प्रतिरोध स्तर: 1.1754,1.1786,1.1819

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is downward. The euro continues to form a consolidation range between 1.17091.1754. Yesterday, buyers attempted to settle above 1.1754, but the attempt was unsuccessful, after which a locked balance formed above the level. The intraday bias is currently with the sellers. Today, attention is on the support zone near 1.1709. A breakdown of this zone would open the path for the price to reach 1.1661. If buyers react to 1.1709, a new rally to 1.1754 should be expected.

वैकल्पिक परिदृश्य:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.1819 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

मुद्रा जोड़ी के तकनीकी संकेतक:

• पिछला ओपन: 1.3443
• पिछला क्लोज: 1.3479
• अंतिम दिन की तुलना में % परिवर्तन: +0.24 %

On the monetary policy front, Bank of England policymakers voiced differing opinions: Catherine Mann warned that “sticky” inflation is becoming entrenched as firms pass rising labor costs on to consumers, while Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden cautioned against keeping rates too high for too long, warning of growth risks. The Bank of England held rates steady in September, and markets do not expect a cut until 2026. Politically, Chancellor Rachel Reeves is reportedly preparing to scrap the two-child benefit limit in the November budget. The move is expected to cost £3.5 billion a year but sharply reduce child poverty. To fund it, speculation about tax hikes is increasing, with the possibility of introducing a levy on gambling being considered.

ट्रेडिंग सिफ़ारिशें

• समर्थन स्तर: 1.3463,1.3415,1.3388,1.3332,1.3315
• प्रतिरोध स्तर: 1.3522,1.3585

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD is a downtrend. The British pound attempted to test the priority change level, but sellers reacted decisively. The price is currently trading in the support zone near 1.3463. A breakdown of this zone would open the path for the price to reach 1.3415. If buyers react to 1.3415, a new rally to 1.3522 should be expected.

वैकल्पिक परिदृश्य:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.3532 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

मुद्रा जोड़ी के तकनीकी संकेतक:

• पिछला ओपन: 147.82
• पिछला क्लोज: 147.03
• अंतिम दिन की तुलना में % परिवर्तन: -0.53 %

The yen fluctuated around the 147 per dollar mark on Thursday after four consecutive days of gains, fueled by safe-haven capital flows and a weaker dollar amid the US government shutdown. The political stalemate, which is expected to last at least three days, will delay the release of key economic data, including the September Non-Farm Payrolls report. Domestically, the yen received additional support from speculation that the Bank of Japan might resume policy normalization later this year, with markets pricing in a 40% chance of a 0.25% rate hike at this month’s meeting. Recent data showed that sentiment among large Japanese manufacturers improved in the third quarter to its highest level since late 2024, although the negative impact of US tariff measures persists.

ट्रेडिंग सिफ़ारिशें

• समर्थन स्तर: 146.25,148.85
• प्रतिरोध स्तर: 147.50,148.06,148.47,148.88,150.00,150.73

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY has shifted to downward. The Japanese yen has settled below the priority change level. The intraday bias is currently with the sellers. Therefore, during the day, traders can focus on selling from the descending trend line or the resistance level of 147.50. Buy deals should only be considered after an impulsive return of the price above 147.50.

वैकल्पिक परिदृश्य:

If the price breaks the resistance level of 148.85 and settles above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

मुद्रा जोड़ी के तकनीकी संकेतक:

• पिछला ओपन: 3859
• पिछला क्लोज: 3867
• अंतिम दिन की तुलना में % परिवर्तन: +0.21%

Gold traded above the 3870 per ounce mark, near record highs, as investors weighed the unexpected drop in US private sector employment and the safe-haven demand triggered by the federal government shutdown. The ADP report showed US businesses cut 32,000 jobs in September, contrary to expectations of a 50,000 gain. This was the first consecutive private sector job reduction since 2020 and the steepest decline since March 2023, fueling expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to lower borrowing costs this year. Meanwhile, Washington has suspended a significant portion of its operations after a partisan deadlock blocked a funding deal, leading to a potentially prolonged standoff that threatens thousands of federal jobs. The shutdown may also delay key economic releases, including Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report, a crucial factor ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting later in October.

ट्रेडिंग सिफ़ारिशें

• समर्थन स्तर: 3854,3800,3760,3718
• प्रतिरोध स्तर: 3870,3900

From a technical analysis perspective, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Buyers have established a support zone at 3854-3870 to hold the price. A breakdown of this zone could trigger a sharp sell-off to 3800. However, as long as the price is above 3854, intraday buys to 3900 can be considered.

वैकल्पिक परिदृश्य:

if the price breaks the support level of 3800 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.