Tinjauan Analitis Pasangan Mata Uang Utama pada 2025.05.09

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.1299
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.1226
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.65 %

The euro stabilized around the mark of 1.13 USD. Money markets are pricing in the ECB’s deposit facility rate at 1.6% by year-end, reflecting ECB signals that it may cut rates further to support economic growth despite stronger-than-expected inflation data. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged on Wednesday but warned that President Trump’s tariffs could lead to higher prices, slower growth, and higher unemployment if they persist. This rate differential is helping to strengthen the US dollar and depress the euro.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.1246, 1.1157, 1.1088, 1.0960
• Level resistance: 1.1297, 1.1380, 1.1400, 1.1440, 1.1492, 1.1572

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The euro has fallen below 1.1297 and is trading near the demand zone at 1.1246. With a high probability, the price will fluctuate in a narrow range and remain below the EMA and downtrend lines until the end of the week. Sell trades can be looked for from 1.1297 or the downtrend line. There are no optimal entry points for buying right now.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.1378 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.3288
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.3246
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.32 %

The British pound sterling rose above $1.33 after the Bank of England cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points as expected, but struck a more hawkish tone. The Central Bank emphasized that a gradual and measured withdrawal of monetary policy support remains appropriate and that rates will remain restrictive as long as necessary to reduce inflation risks. As a result, investors have slightly lowered expectations for further rate cuts and expect rates to be cut by around 59 bps by the end of the year.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.3234, 1.3205, 1.3121
• Level resistance: 1.3251, 1.3352, 1.3402, 1.3434

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD on the hourly time frame has changed to a downtrend. The British pound declined sharply yesterday towards the end of the trading session, despite the growth after the Bank of England meeting. Currently, the price has reached the support level of 1.3234, where some fixation of previously opened sales is taking place. To open sell trades, we can consider the resistance level of 1.3251 with a target of 1.3205. Buying should be considered only if the price impulsively consolidates above 1.3251.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.3344 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 143.76
• Tutup sebelumnya: 145.91
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +1.50 %

Personal spending in Japan rose more than expected in March, which was a positive signal for consumption. However, the third consecutive monthly decline in real wages cast a shadow over the broader economic outlook. The Japanese yen weakened to 145 per dollar, falling to a one-month low, while the US dollar strengthened amid improving global trade sentiment and easing expectations of an imminent US rate cut.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 145.08, 144.42, 144.05, 142.90
• Level resistance: 147.13

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bullish. The Japanese yen continues to depreciate against the US dollar. The price has already reached 145, and there are no prerequisites for a reversal yet. EMA lines or support levels at 145.08 or 144.42 should be considered for buying. There are no optimal entry points for selling.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks the support level of 142.90 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 3366
• Tutup sebelumnya: 3307
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -1.78 %

Gold slipped to $3,290 per ounce on Friday, falling for the third straight session, as optimism over trade talks between the US and China reduced the appeal of safe-haven assets. The announcement of a trade agreement between the US and the UK further eased concerns over global trade tensions.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 3269, 3223, 3194
• Level resistance: 3324, 3355, 3405, 3444, 3500

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold corrected to the demand zone of 3269, where the buyers took the initiative. The price is now trading at the resistance level of 3324. It is important to assess the price action here. If sellers react (bearish candlestick with a low close), this will open up a possible sell target to 3269. If buyers can break 3324 (bullish candle with a high close), this would open up buying opportunities up to 3355.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks and consolidates below the support level of 3223, the downtrend will likely resume.