Tinjauan Analitis Pasangan Mata Uang Utama pada 2026.04.03

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.1587
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.1539
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.41%

On Thursday, the euro retreated to 1.15 dollars, offsetting part of its recent gains amid renewed investor caution. Against the backdrop of rising concerns about “imported” energy inflation, expectations regarding ECB policy underwent a sharp hawkish shift. Investors are now pricing in three rate hikes in 2026, higher than yesterday’s outlook (two hikes) and radically different from the pre‑war scenario, which assumed no tightening or even selective monetary easing. The European economy has found itself squeezed between high oil prices and the need for policy tightening, which limits the euro’s recovery potential until real signs of de‑escalation in the Persian Gulf appear.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.1511, 1.1490, 1.1450
• Level resistance: 1.1560, 1.1617, 1.1639, 1.1666, 1.1707

The European currency has flattened within the 1.1511-1.1560 range and will likely remain there until the end of the week. Low volatility is expected due to exchange closures in Europe, but it is worth noting that the NFP labor market report will be released. For buying, focus on the 1.1511 support level, while for selling, the relevant level remains 1.1560.

Skenario alternatif:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1511
• Res: 1.1560
• Note: Buying should be considered from 1.1511, but with confirmation. Selling can be considered from 1.1560, but with a tight stop‑loss.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.3303
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.3226
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.58%

The yield on 10‑year UK government bonds jumped to 4.8%, approaching the 2008 records amid a sharp shift in market sentiment. Investors sold off debt securities after Donald Trump promised to intensify strikes on Iran, including civilian infrastructure, which completely dispelled hopes for imminent de‑escalation and triggered a new wave of inflation fears. This geopolitical shock forced traders to revise their projections: the market now prices in two Bank of England rate hikes in 2026, fully erasing the four‑day trend of easing expectations. Notably, the market is ignoring recent verbal interventions from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who warned investors against excessively hawkish projections.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.3154, 1.3125
• Level resistance: 1.3262, 1.3322, 1.3378, 1.3457, 1.3508, 1.3556

The British pound has also flattened ahead of the Easter holiday weekend. The currency is trading in the 1.3179-1.3254 range near the EMA lines. Low volatility is expected today. For buying, focus on the 1.3179 support level, while for selling the relevant level remains 1.3254.

Skenario alternatif:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3179
• Res: 1.3254
• Note: Buying is appropriate from 1.3179, but with confirmation. For selling, the most optimal level is 1.3254.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 158.82
• Tutup sebelumnya: 159.55
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.45%

On Friday, the Japanese yen approached the critical psychological level of 160 per dollar, coming under cross‑pressure from geopolitics and monetary policy uncertainty. Markets are pricing in a 70% probability of a rate hike at the April 28 meeting, but the lack of clear signals from Governor Kazuo Ueda is increasing nervousness. Investors fear that if the Bank of Japan decides to keep policy unchanged despite expectations, it could trigger large‑scale destabilization in global markets already weakened by the Middle East conflict. The situation is worsened by sharp rhetoric from official Tokyo: Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned that the government is ready for “decisive measures” (direct FX interventions) if speculative pressure on the national currency does not ease.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 158.31, 157.87, 157.32
• Level resistance: 159.97, 161.29

The Japanese yen consolidated above 159.31, potentially opening the way toward 159.97. The price is currently flattening in a narrow range near the EMA lines. Volatility is low due to the holiday weekend. Under such market conditions, buying from 159.31 can be considered, but traders should understand the risk of holding positions over the weekend. There are no optimal selling points at the moment.

Skenario alternatif:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 158.31
• Res: 159.97
• Note: Buying is appropriate from the 159.31 support level, but with confirmation. There are no optimal selling points now.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 4763
• Tutup sebelumnya: 4675
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -1.88%

On Thursday, gold prices collapsed by nearly 4%, falling to 4,600 dollars per ounce and breaking the emerging recovery streak. A powerful downward impulse was triggered by the strengthening of the US dollar and a new spike in oil prices. The ongoing blockade of a key maritime route supports inflation fears, forcing markets to price in tighter Federal Reserve policy throughout 2026. Since the start of hostilities on February 28, gold has already lost 13% of its value, and as long as rhetoric remains aggressive, prices remain extremely vulnerable to high interest rates and a strong dollar.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 4604, 4528, 4304, 4169
• Level resistance: 4708, 4732, 4801

Today, the metals exchange is closed, meaning gold has a “day off.” If the price opens around the same levels on Monday, the 4709 resistance level can be considered for selling. For buying, the relevant support level remains 4528.

Skenario alternatif:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4528
• Res: 4709
• Note: The market is closed today. If the price opens without a gap on Monday, intraday focus should be on selling toward 4709, but with confirmation. For buying, the relevant support level remains 4528.