Tinjauan Analitis Pasangan Mata Uang Utama pada 2026.04.14

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.1670
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.1759
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.76%

At the start of the trading session, the euro was under pressure due to a spike in energy prices, which traditionally weighs on the EU economy given its dependence on imported raw materials. However, the subsequent weakening of the US dollar allowed the euro to fully recover its losses. Current swap‑market pricing indicates that investors assign a 42% probability to a 25‑basis‑point ECB rate hike at the upcoming April 30 meeting. Tensions in the Persian Gulf remain extremely high: Washington has imposed a full blockade of the key waterway, threatening severe measures in case of resistance, while Tehran has vowed to strike all regional ports in response to threats against its shipping.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.1722, 1.1643, 1.1605
• Level resistance: 1.1793, 1.1823

The euro has strengthened above 1.1700, and there are now solid prerequisites for reaching 1.1793. Buyers should focus on the EMA lines or support at 1.1722. Entering long positions at current prices is risky due to MACD divergence. However, there are no conditions for short positions, as there is no reversal factor – neither a resistance level nor a price reaction.

Skenario alternatif:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 1.1722
• Res: 1.1793
• Note: Long positions may be considered from the EMA lines or from 1.1722 with confirmation. No optimal short setups at this time.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.3391
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.3504
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.84%

Fears of a new inflation shock have led traders to expect at least two Bank of England rate hikes before the end of 2026, whereas just a week ago, the expectations implied only one. Rate increases typically support the national currency.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.3508, 1.3478, 1.3380, 1.3300, 1.3252
• Level resistance: 1.3575, 1.3606

The British pound has consolidated above 1.3500, potentially opening the way toward 1.3575. However, given the MACD divergence, a corrective wave is likely. For long positions, the EMA lines or support at 1.3478 are preferable. It is crucial for buyers to defend 1.3478; otherwise, the price may impulsively return to the previous range.

Skenario alternatif:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 1.3508
• Res: 1.3575
• Note: Long positions are appropriate from 1.3478 or the EMA lines with confirmation. A break and consolidation below 1.3478 may trigger a sell‑off.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 159.64
• Tutup sebelumnya: 159.44
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.12%

On Tuesday, the Japanese yen ended its three‑day decline, strengthening to 159 per dollar. The recovery was supported by simultaneous declines in the US dollar and global oil prices, driven by renewed hopes for a diplomatic resolution between Washington and Tehran. Another factor supporting the yen was market concern over potential currency intervention by Tokyo. Approaching the psychological level of 160 yen per dollar is traditionally seen as a trigger for Japanese authorities to defend their currency. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda urged caution, noting that instability in relations with Iran and oil‑price volatility pose serious risks to Japan’s economic recovery.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 158.93, 158.66, 158.37
• Level resistance: 159.97, 160.46

The yen strengthened to support at 158.93, where buyers showed a moderate reaction. The price may resume growth and test liquidity near 160, or a wide, volatile range may begin to form. For long positions, consider support at 158.93 with confirmation. A break below this level would lead to a decline toward 158.66.

Skenario alternatif:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 158.93
• Res: 159.97
• Note: For long positions, focus on support at 158.93. A break below this level may trigger a decline toward 158.66.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 4662
• Tutup sebelumnya: 4741
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +1.69%

Gold prices recovered to 4,760 dollars per ounce. The positive momentum was driven by signals of possible de‑escalation in the Middle East: Washington and Tehran expressed willingness to return to dialogue to reach a long‑term agreement before the current temporary ceasefire expires. According to Donald Trump, Iranian authorities initiated contact shortly after the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz was established. Falling oil prices amid diplomatic progress eased inflationary pressure, prompting investors to reassess expectations for further central‑bank tightening. Market participants are now less concerned about prolonged high interest rates or additional hikes. Nevertheless, even with the current rebound, gold remains 10% below levels seen at the start of the conflict.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 4700, 4608
• Level resistance: 4801, 4900, 4963

Gold continues to trade within the wide 4700-4800 range. Intraday bias favors buyers, with targets near the upper boundary. Indicators also point to bullish momentum. Under such conditions, long positions are best considered from the EMA lines. For short positions, evaluate price reaction at resistance near 4800.

Skenario alternatif:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 4700
• Res: 4800
• Note: Long positions should be considered intraday from the EMA lines. For short positions, monitor price reaction at 4800.