Tinjauan Analitis Pasangan Mata Uang Utama pada 2026.04.15

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.1755
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.1796
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.34%

The euro rose to 1.18 dollars, updating its highest level since the start of the military conflict in late February. The main driver of growth was cautious investor optimism regarding a possible de‑escalation in the Middle East. The decline in oil prices below 100 dollars per barrel amid diplomatic expectations slightly eased pressure on the Eurozone economy, which traditionally depends heavily on energy imports. However, inflationary pressure caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is still perceived as a long‑term risk. This forces traders to price in a more hawkish European Central Bank policy, including at least two rate hikes by the end of the year.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.1722, 1.1643, 1.1605
• Level resistance: 1.1827, 1.1849, 1.1894

The euro strengthened to the psychological level of 1.18, with no resistance from sellers. This increases the likelihood of further growth into the 1.1827-1.1849 zone, where a liquidity pool is located. The intraday bias remains bullish. Under such market conditions, long trades should be sought from the EMA lines, but with confirmation. Growing divergence indicates a slowly weakening upward momentum.

Skenario alternatif:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 1.1722
• Res: 1.1827
• Note: Long trades may be considered from the EMA lines or from 1.1722, but with confirmation. For selling, evaluate price reaction in the 1.1827-1.1849 zone.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.3496
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.3566
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.51%

The British currency showed confident growth, reaching 1.36 dollars – the highest level since mid‑February. The pound’s strengthening was supported by an overall improvement in market sentiment amid expectations of a new round of diplomatic meetings between US and Iranian representatives in Islamabad. These hopes led to a correction in oil prices, which fell below 100 dollars per barrel. Domestic economic data also supported the pound: in March, UK retail sales increased by 3.1%, with the food sector contributing most, as sales jumped 6.2% due to mass pre‑Easter purchases.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.3508, 1.3478, 1.3380, 1.3300, 1.3252
• Level resistance: 1.3580, 1.3631

The British pound reached the first liquidity zone above 1.3580, but seller reaction was moderate, resembling partial profit‑taking on earlier long positions. Given dollar weakness, the pound may strengthen toward 1.3631. However, the MACD divergence should not be ignored, as it signals an approaching correction. Under such market conditions, long trades should be considered after a breakout of 1.3580 with a target of 1.3631. One of these levels will likely become the ceiling before a corrective wave.

Skenario alternatif:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 1.3508
• Res: 1.3580
• Note: Long trades are appropriate after a breakout of 1.3580 with a target of 1.3631. One of these levels will likely become the base for a correction.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 159.44
• Tutup sebelumnya: 158.77
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.42%

On Wednesday, the Japanese yen stabilized around 158.9 per dollar, holding its position after recent strengthening. The currency’s dynamics were supported by the overall weakness of the US dollar and a correction in oil prices triggered by diplomatic signals from Washington and Tehran. Investors are closely watching preparations for the second round of peace talks, expected before the end of the current two‑week ceasefire, hoping for a long‑term reduction of geopolitical risks. An additional restraining factor for speculators is the proximity of the exchange rate to the psychological level of 160 yen per dollar. Market participants fear that reaching this level may once again force Japanese authorities to intervene to protect the national currency.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 158.66, 158.02
• Level resistance: 159.34, 159.97, 160.46

The Japanese currency tested liquidity below 158.66, where buyers showed initiative. The price is now trading near the EMA lines, with the intraday bias favoring buyers. Under such market conditions, long trades should be sought with a target at the resistance level of 159.34. Selling should be considered only after the price consolidates below 158.66.

Skenario alternatif:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 158.66
• Res: 159.34
• Note: Long trades are considered intraday with a target of 159.34. Selling becomes relevant after consolidation below 158.66.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 4750
• Tutup sebelumnya: 4840
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +1.89%

Gold prices strengthened to 4,800 dollars per ounce, reaching their highest levels in the past month. The rise in the precious metal was supported by US dollar weakness and oil prices returning below 100 dollars per barrel. Positive shifts in diplomatic dialogue between Washington and Tehran helped reduce inflation expectations. Against the backdrop of the dollar falling to monthly lows and declining energy prices, the market began to assess monetary‑policy prospects more optimistically. The probability of the Fed easing by the end of the year is now estimated at nearly 30%, as risks of a prolonged price shock have somewhat diminished.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 4776, 4700, 4608
• Level resistance: 4857, 4900, 4963

Gold has reached the liquidity zone above 4850, where sellers reacted. Given the MACD divergence, the likelihood of a corrective move increases. Intraday, short trades may be considered toward the root of the bullish impulse at 4776. This level can also be viewed as a support for long trades, provided buyers show initiative.

Skenario alternatif:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 4776
• Res: 4857
• Note: Intraday, look for short trades targeting 4776. This level may serve as a base for long trades if buyers show initiative.