Tinjauan Analitis Pasangan Mata Uang Utama pada 2026.06.02

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.1653
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.1630
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.20%

The exchange rate of the single European currency came under serious pressure, dropping to the 1.16 dollar mark. The euro approached its lowest levels since April 7, reacting to a sharp deterioration in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which dashed investors’ hopes for stabilization in the Strait of Hormuz and worsened medium‑term economic expectations for the European region. In response to rising pro‑inflationary risks, FX market participants began urgently revising their expectations regarding the European Central Bank’s monetary policy in favor of a hawkish scenario. Current market pricing indicates that investors are factoring in at least two ECB rate hikes by the end of 2026. At the same time, the probability of the first 25‑basis‑point increase at the upcoming meeting on June 11 is estimated by the market at more than 90%.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.1629, 1.1607, 1.1586, 1.1547
• Level resistance: 1.1657, 1.1659, 1.1681, 1.1696, 1.1722

Against the backdrop of US dollar strengthening, the euro sharply corrected on Monday to the 1.1607 level, where buyers showed initiative. The price has now re‑established itself above 1.1629, indicating that the intraday bias has returned to the bulls. Under such market conditions, intraday buying opportunities may be considered from the 1.1629 level, but with confirmation. It is important for buyers to hold this level – otherwise, consolidation below 1.1629 will trigger a new wave of euro selling.

Skenario alternatif:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1629
• Res: 1.1657
• Note: Buying trades are appropriate from 1.1629, but with confirmation. A repeated consolidation below 1.1629 will trigger a new wave of euro selling.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.3452
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.3452
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: 0.0%

The British pound sterling fell during the trading session to the 1.34 dollar mark, updating its lowest level since May 19. The main trigger for the sell‑off in the British currency was the sharp breakdown of diplomatic negotiations in the Middle East and the emergence of extremely alarming signals from the UK domestic economy. The collapse of the potential 60‑day agreement instantly brought panic back to the market, provoking a powerful spike in WTI oil prices above 92 dollars per barrel. The surge in energy prices forced investors to urgently revise their expectations for the Bank of England’s monetary policy toward a hawkish scenario to contain a new wave of imported inflation. Markets now price in with 100% certainty the first 25‑basis‑point rate hike at the September meeting.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.3450, 1.3412, 1.3380, 1.3300, 1.3252
• Level resistance: 1.3507, 1.3550, 1.3596

The British pound, like the euro, sharply fell on Monday to 1.3412, where buyers “picked up” the currency. The price is now trading again above 1.3450 and above the EMA lines. The intraday bias is bullish. Under such market conditions, intraday buying opportunities should be considered from 1.3450 or from the EMA lines, with targets at 1.3483 and higher toward 1.3507. A repeated consolidation below 1.3450 may lead to a new sell‑off in the pound.

Skenario alternatif:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3450
• Res: 1.3483
• Note: Buying trades are best considered from 1.3450 or from the EMA lines, but with confirmation. For selling, evaluate the price reaction at 1.3483.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 159.35
• Tutup sebelumnya: 159.65
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.19%

Japan’s national currency has approached the critical psychological level of 160, the defense of which in previous periods required emergency measures from the monetary authorities. The current weakening triggered an immediate reaction and a series of stern verbal warnings from Tokyo. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama issued an official statement, emphasizing that the government is closely monitoring the situation and is ready, if necessary, to take “appropriate and decisive measures” directly in the FX markets. Meanwhile, expectations are rapidly growing that the Ministry of Finance may no longer have to defend the exchange rate alone. Due to intensifying inflationary pressure caused by the threat of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, investors sharply revised their prediction for the Bank of Japan’s policy. The probability of a new rate hike by the regulator at the end of this month has surged to 78%.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 159.55, 159.14, 158.65, 158.28, 158.00, 157.33, 156.98
• Level resistance: 159.86

From a technical analysis perspective, the Japanese yen continues to weaken against the US dollar. On Monday, the price impulsively consolidated above 159.55 and continued striving to test liquidity above 159.86 – a zone not only of liquidity accumulation but also where Japanese authorities previously conducted currency interventions. Under such market conditions, the intraday bias remains with buyers, but one must be prepared for scenarios of sharp sell‑offs.

Skenario alternatif:

• Trend: Uptrend
• Sup: 159.55
• Res: 159.86
• Note: Buying trades are appropriate from 159.55 or from the EMA lines with a target at 159.86. But sudden government interventions to support the currency cannot be ruled out.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 4521
• Tutup sebelumnya: 4484
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.82%

Gold prices completely lost their morning upward momentum and during the first trading session of the summer collapsed to 4470 dollars per troy ounce, approaching their lowest levels since late March. The main driver behind the sell‑off in the safe‑haven asset was a sharp surge in inflation expectations, forcing investors to price in a scenario of prolonged tight policy from major global central banks. Against this backdrop, sentiment in the government bond market has noticeably tightened: investors now estimate the probability of at least one additional US Federal Reserve rate hike by the end of 2026 at around 60%. The key macroeconomic intrigue of the week now shifts to the official US labor market data (Non‑Farm Payrolls), which will become the main benchmark for the Federal Reserve.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 4496, 4458, 4350, 4304
• Level resistance: 4581, 4616, 4648, 4707

Gold corrected yesterday to the support level of 4458, where buyers showed initiative. On Tuesday, the price re‑established itself above 4496 and above the root of the downward impulse. This indicates a bullish intraday bias. Under such market conditions, buying trades are appropriate intraday from the EMA lines or from the 4496 support level, but with confirmation. There are currently no optimal entry points for selling.

Skenario alternatif:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4496
• Res: 4581
• Note: Buying trades are considered intraday from the EMA lines or from the 4496 support level. There are currently no optimal entry points for selling.