This week, markets will focus on the delayed US labor market data package, including nonfarm payrolls for October and November, the November unemployment rate, October retail sales, November inflation, and December S&P Global PMI business activity indices. Central bank policy will remain a key factor, with investors watching closely for decisions from the ECB, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, Banxico, the Riksbank, and Norges Bank. Additional attention will be paid to inflation data in the Eurozone, Canada, and the UK, and to preliminary PMIs for Australia, Japan, and leading European economies.
Senin, December 15
On Monday, traders will be actively monitoring data from China and Canada. During the Asian session, a package of data from China will be released, including reports on retail sales and the labor market. Conditions are expected to improve, which may support the Asian indices CHA50 and HK50. During the US session, traders will assess Canada’s inflation report. The median forecast is expected to remain at last month’s level, so no significant shifts in the probability of interest rates are expected. However, short-term volatility on CAD instruments is guaranteed.
Peristiwa utama hari ini:
- Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2); – JPY (LOW)
- China Industrial Production (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
- China Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
- China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
- Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
- Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2). – CAD (HIGH)
Selasa, December 16
The key economic event on Tuesday will be the Non-Farm Payrolls report. Due to the US government shutdown in the fall, the reporting calendar has shifted. Analysts expect a weak report (employment growth of 50K, compared to 119K last month). This points to the likelihood of an actual decline in employment, strengthening the case for more aggressive Fed policy easing next year. Also on Tuesday, traders should pay attention to the UK labor market report, which is also expected to show a deterioration in conditions. Also on Tuesday, investors will focus on business activity data from the manufacturing and service sectors in key economies. These data reflect the health of the economy. The growth of indicators is usually positive for the national currency.
Peristiwa utama hari ini:
- Australia Manufacturing and Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2); – AUD(MED)
- Japan Manufacturing and Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
- UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (HIGH)
- Eurozone Manufacturing and Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
- UK Manufacturing and Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
- Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
- US Non-Farm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU, US Indices (HIGH)
- US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU, US Indices (HIGH)
- US Manufacturing and Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)
Rabu, December 17
On Wednesday, traders’ attention will turn to UK inflation data. A slight decline in core inflation is expected, while overall inflation is expected to be unchanged. Surprise in the direction of a significant decline in inflation will have a negative impact on the British currency. Also on Wednesday, investors will be keeping an eye on the final Eurozone inflation data, which is expected to show the same figures as in the previous month. This data could support the euro, as it would confirm that the ECB’s current rate is now at an optimal level.
Peristiwa utama hari ini:
- Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
- UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP, UK100 (HIGH)
- Germany Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2); – EUR, DE40 (MED)
- Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR, DE40 (MED)
- US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2); – WTI (HIGH)
- New Zealand GDP (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2). – NZD (MED)
Kamis, December 18
Thursday promises to be a busy day for the markets: five central banks are scheduled to hold meetings, and US inflation data will be released. The Riksbank, Norges Bank, and the ECB are highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged, which could provide moderate support for their currencies and increase short-term volatility. In the UK, the Bank of England is expected to cut its rate from 4% to 3.75%, while in Mexico, Banxico is forecast to lower its rate from 7.25% to 7.0%, with the Mexican peso possibly even strengthening thanks to the continued attractiveness of carry trade operations. Inflation is expected to accelerate in the US: the headline CPI is estimated to exceed 3.0% for the first time since May 2024, while core inflation may rise to 3.1% from 3.0%. Stronger inflation data could support the dollar and increase pressure on risk assets.
Peristiwa utama hari ini:
- Sweden Riksbank Rate Decision (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2); – SEK (MED)
- Norway Norges Bank Rate Decision (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2); – NOK (MED)
- UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+2); – GBP, UK100 (HIGH)
- UK BoE Monetary Policy Statement at 14:00 (GMT+2); – GBP, UK100 (HIGH)
- Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+2); – EUR, DE40 (HIGH)
- Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+2); – EUR, DE40 (HIGH)
- US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU, US Indices (HIGH)
- Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+2); – EUR, DE40 (MED)
- US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
- US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2); – XNG (HIGH)
- Mexico Banxico Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+2); – MXN (HIGH)
- New Zealand Trade Balance (m/m) at 23:45 (GMT+2). – NZD (MED)
Jumat, December 19
On Friday, investors will focus their attention on Japan. At the opening of the Asian session, an inflation report will be published, with the indicator expected to remain stable at around 3% y/y. Later in the day, the Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy meeting, and markets are anticipating a fairly high probability of an unexpected 0.25% interest rate hike. The realization of such a scenario could lead to a sharp strengthening of the Japanese yen, especially given that the new government is simultaneously launching a stimulus package to support the economy.
Peristiwa utama hari ini:
- Japan National Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (HIGH)
- Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 05:00 (GMT+2); – JPY, JP225 (HIGH)
- Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement at 05:00 (GMT+2); – JPY, JP225 (HIGH)
- Japan BoJ Press Conference at 06:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
- UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
- Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (MED)
- US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)
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