This week is poised to be a pivotal juncture for the global economy as markets brace for a heavy influx of signals, ranging from high-stakes corporate earnings to major central bank decisions. The Federal Reserve is set to deliver its first interest rate verdict of the year amid reports of growing internal friction within the FOMC regarding the future policy trajectory. Simultaneously, quarterly results from tech titans Apple, Meta, and Microsoft will offer critical clarity on AI-driven demand and the sustainability of data center investments. At the same time, a broader slate of conference calls across the financial, healthcare, industrial, and energy sectors will further define the current business landscape. On the monetary policy front, the Bank of Canada and Sweden’s Riksbank are scheduled to announce their latest rate decisions, while the Bank of Japan is due to release the minutes from its most recent meeting. Macroeconomic data will remain in focus, with US investors zeroing in on durable goods orders and the producer price index (PPI). At the same time, preliminary GDP estimates from the Eurozone and Canada are set to provide a definitive pulse check on regional growth.
Senin, January 26
Monday’s market focus centers on US durable goods orders, where a projected 0.5% rebound in November, following October’s sharp 2.2% decline, is expected to signal stabilizing economic activity and provide a tailwind for the US dollar. Meanwhile, European sentiment will be driven by Germany’s Ifo Business Climate report. The index is forecasted to hit a three-month high, a result that could significantly bolster investor confidence and provide upward momentum for the euro.
Peristiwa utama hari ini:
- German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
- US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)
Selasa, January 27
Key data releases from Australia and the United States will primarily drive Tuesday’s market trajectory. The NAB Business Survey will offer a critical look at Australia’s corporate landscape, where any signs of softening could intensify downward pressure on the Australian dollar. Later in the session, the focus shifts to the US for the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index. The expected moderate improvement in the indicator may temporarily support the US dollar amid more stable household expectations.
Peristiwa utama hari ini:
- Australia NAB Business Confidence at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
- US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
- Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speech at 19:00 (GMT+2). – EUR (LOW)
Rabu, January 28
Wednesday is poised to be one of the most volatile days of the week, driven by a dense concentration of high-impact events. During the Asian session, Australia will release inflation data, with annual CPI projected to accelerate from 3.4% to 3.6%. Such a result would reinforce expectations for a “higher-for-longer” policy stance from the RBA. It could revive discussions of a potential rate hike in the second half of the year, likely boosting the Australian dollar. Later in the day, the spotlight shifts to central bank decisions in North America. The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold its policy rate at 2.25%, making the accompanying rhetoric and forward guidance the primary drivers of the market. In the US, the FOMC is also forecast to maintain the status quo after December’s rate cut, as policymakers weigh a resilient labor market against lingering inflationary pressures. Adding to the intrigue is the potential announcement of a nominee for Fed Chair, with Jerome Powell’s term set to expire in May. Meanwhile, energy traders will monitor US crude inventory data. Given the current global supply surplus, any further rise in inventories could intensify downward pressure on oil prices.
Peristiwa utama hari ini:
- Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 01:50 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
- Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (HIGH)
- German GfK German Consumer Climate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
- Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 16:45 (GMT+2); – CAD (HIGH)
- Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report at 16:45 (GMT+2); – CAD (HIGH)
- Canada BoC Press Conference at 17:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (HIGH)
- US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2); – WTI (HIGH)
- US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU (HIGH)
- US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU (HIGH)
- US Fed Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU (HIGH)
- New Zealand Trade Balance (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2). – NZD (MED)
Kamis, January 29
On Thursday, the European session will be headlined by the Riksbank’s interest rate decision. The Swedish central bank is widely expected to maintain its policy rate at 1.75%, though the announcement typically triggers sharp volatility in SEK-related crosses. Across the Atlantic, investors will parse the latest trade balance figures and weekly initial jobless claims. A projected widening of the trade deficit, combined with an uptick in unemployment applications, could fuel concerns over softening economic momentum and exert downward pressure on the US dollar. The report on natural gas reserves deserves special attention, as it could become an additional market driver. This month, gas prices jumped more than 70% amid an Arctic cyclone and a sharp increase in demand in North America. If the data points to a decline in reserves, this could reinforce the current upward momentum and support prices, given the already tight supply-demand balance.
Peristiwa utama hari ini:
- Sweden Riksbank Interest Rate Decision at 10:30 (GMT+2); – SEK (HIGH)
- Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (MED)
- US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
- US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
- US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – XNG (HIGH)
Jumat, January 30
Friday’s session begins with high-impact data from Japan: the Tokyo CPI, a vital leading indicator of national inflation trends. A projected deceleration in annual price growth from 2.4% to 2.3% would further complicate the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) path toward policy normalization and could exert additional downward pressure on the Yen. Later in the day, the focus shifts to GDP updates from the Eurozone and Canada. The Eurozone is expected to post a modest quarterly expansion of 0.2%. At the same time, Canada is forecast to see growth recover to 0.1% following a previous slump, providing a generally supportive backdrop for both the euro and the loonie. The week concludes with US PPI data. Projected 0.2% monthly increase could signal burgeoning price pressures at the production level, potentially offering the US dollar a short-term boost.
Peristiwa utama hari ini:
- Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
- Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
- Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2); – JPY (LOW)
- Australia Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
- Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2); – CHF (LOW)
- Eurozone GDP (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
- German Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
- Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (MED)
- US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (HIGH)
- US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2). – EUR (LOW)
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