主要通貨ペアの分析概要： 2024.12.02

The EUR/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.0551
• 前回終了: 1.0576
• 前日に%変動: +0.24 %

Amid concerns over US tariffs and weak Eurozone growth, the euro posted its worst monthly performance in over a year, falling about 3% to $1.0575 in November. Political instability in Germany and France, as well as investor expectations of aggressive ECB rate cuts, have led to the euro being the worst-performing G10 currency. While the ECB’s hawkish comments and Trump’s focus on other trading partners brought short-term relief, concerns about stagnant business activity remain.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.0510, 1.0470, 1.0449, 1.0233
• 抵抗レベル: 1.0546, 1.0568, 1.0609, 1.0654, 1.0714

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish but close to change. On Friday, the euro retested the resistance zone above 1.0568, but the sellers reacted again, after which the price declined again. The price is now aiming to test the support level at 1.0546, where it is important to gauge the reaction. If buyers react here and the price sharply returns above the level, we can look for buying with targets at 1.0546 or 1.0569. The price fixation below 1.0510 may provoke a new wave of selling.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0609 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.2681
• 前回終了: 1.2737
• 前日に%変動: +0.44 %

According to the Bank of England’s stress test results released on Friday, the UK’s largest clearing houses are resilient to severe market stresses, although there are some vulnerabilities in highly concentrated positions. The Central Bank said firms have suffered larger losses this year, partly because they had fewer pre-funded resources than they did during market volatility in 2022. That points to a generally stable financial system.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.2671, 1.2633, 1.2567, 1.2487
• 抵抗レベル: 1.2726, 1.2766, 1.2878, 1.2905, 1.2982, 1.3023

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish. On Friday, the price tested the liquidity above 1.2726, where the fixation of previously opened purchases took place. Currently, the price is looking to test liquidity below 1.2671. If buyers react here, intraday buying could be looked for. If the price consolidates below 1.2671, the scenario with sell-offs to 1.2633 will be quite realistic.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks the support level at 1.2526 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 151.53
• 前回終了: 149.73
• 前日に%変動: -1.41 %

The Japanese yen weakened to 150.5 per dollar on Monday, reversing some of last week’s gains as markets remain divided over the timing of future interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Saturday that the next rate hike is “close at hand” as economic data is coming in line with expectations. He also emphasized the importance of watching the momentum created by the wage negotiations in fiscal 2025. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December is currently priced by markets at 63%, up from 50% a week ago.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 149.67
• 抵抗レベル: 150.53, 151.34, 151.96, 153.23, 154.71, 155.25

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is a downtrend. On Friday, the yen reached the support level of 149.75, where buyers showed a reaction. However, after a liquidity test above 150.53, sellers retook the initiative intraday. Today, we should expect the price to decline to 150. There are no optimal entry points for buying now.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks above the resistance level at 154.52, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 2638
• 前回終了: 2650
• 前日に%変動: +0.45 %

Gold fell below $2,630 an ounce on Monday, ending a four-season streak of gains as the US dollar strengthened following President-elect Donald Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariffs on BRICS countries. Investors are now eagerly awaiting upcoming economic data from the US for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates. Key reports that will be released include the job openings data, the ADP employment report, and the payroll report. Several Fed officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, are also scheduled to speak this week.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 2618, 2580, 2559, 2471
• 抵抗レベル: 2649, 2658, 2704, 2708, 2733, 2749

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish, but close to change. On Friday, the price tested liquidity above 2658, where sellers showed a reaction. This is a strong bearish signal that could change the medium-term trend. Currently, the price aims to test the liquidity below 2618. Intraday, price may jump to 2649 before continuing lower, so it is important to gauge price reaction to the level.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks and consolidates below the support level of 2618, the downtrend will likely resume.