主要通貨ペアの分析概要： 2025.03.12

The EUR/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.0836
• 前回終了: 1.0911
• 前日に%変動: +0.69 %

The euro/dollar exchange rate rose 5% since early March, surpassing $1.09, the highest in four months, as pledges by the Eurozone’s major economies to increase deficit spending supported the bloc’s growth prospects. The spending pledges came as Germany’s main political parties quickly moved into coalition talks to create a 500 billion euro infrastructure fund aimed at boosting infrastructure and defense. These measures coincided with the French and Italian governments pushing for EU co-financing for economic and military support. Additional support for the euro came from the European Central Bank’s signal that monetary conditions in the bloc are becoming less tight.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.0884, 1.0820, 1.0677, 1.0602, 1.0561, 1.0466
• 抵抗レベル: 1.0937, 1.0979

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. The euro reached the resistance level at 1.0937. Oscillatory indicators are strongly overheated. The divergence indicates an approaching correction. Currently, it is important to evaluate the price reaction to the support level of 1.0937. If sellers react here, the price may rush to 1.0884 or even 1.0820. If there is no sellers’ reaction at 1.0937 and the price consolidates above, the probability of a rise to 1.0979 will increase sharply.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the support level of 1.0389 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.2875
• 前回終了: 1.2950
• 前日に%変動: +0.58 %

On March 26, the Office for Budget Responsibility, which oversees the UK’s public finances, will release its latest economic and borrowing prognoses. This data, along with GDP data later this week, will give traders more insight into the economy. Strong data will increase the likelihood that UK interest rates will remain elevated for longer. That said, traders have cut bets on a Bank of England rate cut to 52bp for 2025.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.2924, 1.2866, 1.2811, 1.2768, 1.2704, 1.2645
• 抵抗レベル: 1.2932, 1.3008

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency is bullish. The British pound reached the resistance level at 1.2932, after which the price started to form a flat accumulation. Currently, it is important to evaluate the price reaction to the intermediate support level of 1.2924. For buy deals, it is best to consider a false breakdown of this level. However, if the price consolidates below, a deeper correction to 1.2811 may take place.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.2582 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 147.13
• 前回終了: 147.72
• 前日に%変動: +0.40 %

The Japanese yen weakened to 148 per dollar on Wednesday, declining for the second consecutive session as part of what appears to be a technical correction ahead of the release of a key US consumer inflation report. Nevertheless, the currency remains near five-month highs as uncertainty over Trump’s tariff plans and growing fears of a US recession continue to drive demand for the safe-haven yen. Domestically, the yen found support after Japanese companies agreed to significant wage increases for the third consecutive year to help workers cope with inflation and address labor shortages. Higher wage increases are expected to boost consumer spending, which will spur inflation and possibly give the Bank of Japan more room for additional interest rate hikes.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 147.65, 146.65, 146.00
• 抵抗レベル: 148.40, 149.24, 150.16, 151.29, 152.32

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. The Japanese yen has gone into a technical correction. Currently, the price seeks to test liquidity above the level of 148.40. Next, price action should be evaluated. If sellers react to the zone above, it will provoke the quotes to fall to 147.65 or lower. The price fixing above 148.40 will open the way to 149.24.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks above the resistance at 151.29, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 2888
• 前回終了: 2916
• 前日に%変動: +0.96 %

On Wednesday, the gold price held above the $2,910/oz mark, maintaining a 1% gain from the previous session, helped by gold’s appeal as a safe-haven source of income and a weaker US dollar. On Tuesday, President Donald Trump withdrew his trade war threat against Ontario, hours after promising to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50 percent and Ontario’s premier temporarily suspended a planned 25 percent surcharge on US electricity exports. Continued uncertainty in global trade, coupled with increased fears of a recession caused by the imposition of tariffs in the US, continues to encourage investors to buy protective assets.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 2908, 2896, 2859, 2833
• 抵抗レベル: 2930, 2940, 2944

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bearish. After a liquidity test below 2895, the price came back sharply and impulsively consolidated higher. There was a change in structure intraday, which opened the price to the upper boundary of the broadly volatile flat at 2930. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought from 2908 or 2895, but with confirmation. There are no optimal entry points for selling now.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks and consolidates above the resistance at 2945, the uptrend will likely resume.