主要通貨ペアの分析概要： 2025.06.11

The EUR/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.1423
• 前回終了: 1.1425
• 前日に%変動: +0.02 %

The euro fluctuated around $1.14, not far from the three-year highs reached in April, as traders kept a close eye on developments in the ongoing trade talks between the US and China. At the same time, investors were evaluating comments from European Central Bank officials looking for clues on the ECB’s next steps. Governing Council spokesman François Villeroy de Galhau said the ECB could still change interest rates quickly, even after the eighth consecutive cut, which he said had “normalized” monetary policy.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.1375, 1.1356, 1.1312, 1.1296, 1.1269, 1.1220, 1.1200
• 抵抗レベル: 1.1439, 1.1456, 1.1483

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The situation has not changed much compared to yesterday. Currently, the price has flattened and is trading in the corridor with the boundaries of 1.1375–1.1439. According to the rules of trading in ranges, it is best to look for selling from the upper boundary of the corridor, and buying — from the lower one. A breakout of 1.1439 will open the price way to 1.1483.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the support level of 1.1356 and consolidates below it, the downward trend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.3546
• 前回終了: 1.3501
• 前日に%変動: -0.33 %

The British pound weakened to USD 1.35 after fresh economic data signaled a marked slowdown in the labor market, which strengthened the case for a rate cut by the Bank of England. Wage growth came in below expectations and private sector payrolls, a key indicator closely watched by the Central Bank, also slowed. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to the highest level since 2021 and the number of wage earners on payrolls showed the sharpest fall since 2020.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.3454, 1.3435, 1.3390, 1.3333, 1.3291, 1.3121
• 抵抗レベル: 1.3530, 1.3545, 1.3575, 1.3616

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD on the hourly chart has changed to a downtrend. The price has consolidated below the level of priority change and is trading below the EMA. For selling, we can consider the moving averages or the resistance level at 1.3530. There are no optimal entry points for buying right now.

別のシナリオ:

If the price breaks the resistance level at 1.3575 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 144.53
• 前回終了: 144.85
• 前日に%変動: +0.22 %

The Japanese yen held its recent decline to 144.9 per dollar on Wednesday, near a two-week low, as optimism over US-China trade talks dampened demand for safe-haven assets. On the domestic front, Japan’s producer prices rose 3.2% year-on-year in May, the slowest pace of growth in eight months, indicating easing pressure on input costs. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda told parliament on Tuesday that the Central Bank is ready to raise interest rates again if there is enough confidence that core inflation is approaching or stabilizing near its 2% target.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 144.21, 143.45, 142.62, 142.19
• 抵抗レベル: 145.06, 146.27, 146.85, 148.28

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bullish. The price is forming a broadly volatile accumulation in the form of an ascending triangle. Liquidity is narrowing, hence, we should expect an impulsive movement. Buying trades should be considered after breaking the resistance level at 145.06. Selling should be considered if the price impulsively consolidates below the trend line.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the support level of 142.77 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 3327
• 前回終了: 3323
• 前日に%変動: -0.12 %

Gold rose to $3340 an ounce on Wednesday, supported by uncertainty over the completion of a trade deal between the US and China and anticipation of key US inflation data. Officials from both countries announced an agreement to restore a trade truce and lift restrictions on rare earth exports from China, but both sides are still awaiting approval from their leaders before proceeding to implement the deal. The World Bank also lowered its 2025 global growth expectations by 0.4 percentage points to 2.3%, citing higher tariffs and rising risks as major concerns for most economies. Investors are now awaiting the US inflation report.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 3315, 3303, 3272, 3248
• 抵抗レベル: 3344, 3365, 3414

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. The price is forming a wide flat with the boundaries of 3303–3344. Selling can be considered from the 3344 level, subject to sellers’ reaction. For buying, we can consider 3303 or the intermediate support level of 3315. However, it’s most likely the price will remain in this range until the end of the trading week, so the profit targets should not be far.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks and consolidates below the support level of 3272, the downtrend will likely resume.